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Blackjack is one of my favorite hobbies. In an effort many years ago to monetize all of my hobbies, blackjack is also a source of net income for me, albeit a small one. I track my results on spreadsheets, and since figuring out a regular system, I win at blackjack more often than I lose. I don't win much more often than I lose, but my winnings are a net positive over the losses, over time.
-By Caleb Jones
This is the first of many blog posts where I will talk about what I do, what I don't do, why 99% of people lose at blackjack in the long run, including the computer models.
I'm looking at my current blackjack spreadsheet right now, and since the start of this month, I've played blackjack four times with these results:
Feb 1st
Starting Pot: $500
Base Bet: $25
Time played: 32 minutes
Ending Pot: $725
Result: Won $225
Feb 5th
Starting Pot: $500
Base Bet: $25
Time played: 27 minutes
Ending Pot: $800
Result: Won $300
Feb 11th
Starting Pot: $500
Base Bet: $25
Time played: 28 minutes
Ending Pot: $605
Result: Won $105
Feb 18th
Starting Pot: $500
Base Bet: $25
Time played: 55 minutes
Ending Pot: $263
Result: Lost $237
If you do the math, I've made a net income of $393 from playing blackjack this month so far. Not many just-for-fun hobbies make a guy $393, thus my love of playing this game.
You might be asking, "That's fine for February, but what about all of your wins and losses for years before that?" I will repeat that since developing a system for playing this game back in late 2008, if you add up everything I've done (the wins, losses, and break evens) I've won more money at blackjack than I've lost. The only thing I'm not counting towards this total is when I purposely deviate from my system because I'm with friends and screwing around while playing blackjack just for shits and giggles with no intention of actually winning. But when I'm on-system, and I almost always am, I win more than I lose, though not by much.
February, so far anyway, has been pretty typical of my results. A few wins, some big some small, and one big loss, all of which still equals a small but nice net profit.
Why Do I Win?
There are several reasons I'm able to do this and all of them are important, but I'll give you what I think is the most important reason, the "winning move." It's simply this: As soon as you start winning, stop playing, cash in your chips, and go home. That's really it. When I start with a pot of $500, and my balance starts shooting up a little past that, like to $700 or $800, I start paying very close attention to any losing hands. Once I'm up, if I lose two hands in a row, I immediately stop, cash in my chips, leave the building, get in my car, and go home.
Quitting as soon as you start winning requires a decent amount of emotional control, something most people don't have. I have seen thousands of blackjack players over the years and virtually no one does this. They either play completely wrong, immediately start losing, and keep playing until their balance is zero (this is the most common scenario), or they start winning, get really excited, keep playing (often greatly raising their bets when they shouldn't), and eventually lose their winnings and stop playing when they're below the balance they started with.
If you sit down and play blackjack for a long time, you will lose. That's how the odds work, and that's why casinos make so much money. (I would love to own one.) Therefore, if you want to win, the goal is to NOT play blackjack for a very long time, and buzz out of there as soon as you start winning a little. Do that every time you play, and assuming you play correctly, you'll win more often than you lose (edited addendum: ...assuming you play exactly the way I play, which involves very careful casino and table selection along with some limited card counting, all of which I will describe in later posts). You'll notice that I often play for just 30 minutes. This is why. You'll also notice that my longest February playing session resulted in a loss instead of a win. That's not a coincidence.
This explains why mathematical or computer models always show that it's "impossible" to win at blackjack over time. Correct, it's not. The computer under these models plays and plays and plays until the odds grind it into powder. Fortunately I'm not a computer, so I don't do this. Unlike the computer, I play for a very short period of time, and as soon as I start winning, I stop and buzz out of the casino a winner. As I said, this all assumes you're playing blackjack correctly, and about 95% of people I watch do it incorrectly. I'll be discussing exactly how I play in future blog posts.
Want over 35 hours of how-to podcasts on how to improve your woman life and financial life? Want to be able to coach with me twice a month? Want access to hours of technique-based video and audio? The SMIC Program is a monthly podcast and coaching program where you get access to massive amounts of exclusive, members-only Alpha 2.0 content as soon as you sign up, and you can cancel whenever you want. Click here for the details.
I'm looking at my current blackjack spreadsheet right now, and since the start of this month, I've played blackjack four times with these results:
Feb 1st
Starting Pot: $500
Base Bet: $25
Time played: 32 minutes
Ending Pot: $725
Result: Won $225
Feb 5th
Starting Pot: $500
Base Bet: $25
Time played: 27 minutes
Ending Pot: $800
Result: Won $300
Feb 11th
Starting Pot: $500
Base Bet: $25
Time played: 28 minutes
Ending Pot: $605
Result: Won $105
Feb 18th
Starting Pot: $500
Base Bet: $25
Time played: 55 minutes
Ending Pot: $263
Result: Lost $237
If you do the math, I've made a net income of $393 from playing blackjack this month so far. Not many just-for-fun hobbies make a guy $393, thus my love of playing this game.
You might be asking, "That's fine for February, but what about all of your wins and losses for years before that?" I will repeat that since developing a system for playing this game back in late 2008, if you add up everything I've done (the wins, losses, and break evens) I've won more money at blackjack than I've lost. The only thing I'm not counting towards this total is when I purposely deviate from my system because I'm with friends and screwing around while playing blackjack just for shits and giggles with no intention of actually winning. But when I'm on-system, and I almost always am, I win more than I lose, though not by much.
February, so far anyway, has been pretty typical of my results. A few wins, some big some small, and one big loss, all of which still equals a small but nice net profit.
Why Do I Win?
There are several reasons I'm able to do this and all of them are important, but I'll give you what I think is the most important reason, the "winning move." It's simply this: As soon as you start winning, stop playing, cash in your chips, and go home. That's really it. When I start with a pot of $500, and my balance starts shooting up a little past that, like to $700 or $800, I start paying very close attention to any losing hands. Once I'm up, if I lose two hands in a row, I immediately stop, cash in my chips, leave the building, get in my car, and go home.
Quitting as soon as you start winning requires a decent amount of emotional control, something most people don't have. I have seen thousands of blackjack players over the years and virtually no one does this. They either play completely wrong, immediately start losing, and keep playing until their balance is zero (this is the most common scenario), or they start winning, get really excited, keep playing (often greatly raising their bets when they shouldn't), and eventually lose their winnings and stop playing when they're below the balance they started with.
If you sit down and play blackjack for a long time, you will lose. That's how the odds work, and that's why casinos make so much money. (I would love to own one.) Therefore, if you want to win, the goal is to NOT play blackjack for a very long time, and buzz out of there as soon as you start winning a little. Do that every time you play, and assuming you play correctly, you'll win more often than you lose (edited addendum: ...assuming you play exactly the way I play, which involves very careful casino and table selection along with some limited card counting, all of which I will describe in later posts). You'll notice that I often play for just 30 minutes. This is why. You'll also notice that my longest February playing session resulted in a loss instead of a win. That's not a coincidence.
This explains why mathematical or computer models always show that it's "impossible" to win at blackjack over time. Correct, it's not. The computer under these models plays and plays and plays until the odds grind it into powder. Fortunately I'm not a computer, so I don't do this. Unlike the computer, I play for a very short period of time, and as soon as I start winning, I stop and buzz out of the casino a winner. As I said, this all assumes you're playing blackjack correctly, and about 95% of people I watch do it incorrectly. I'll be discussing exactly how I play in future blog posts.
Want over 35 hours of how-to podcasts on how to improve your woman life and financial life? Want to be able to coach with me twice a month? Want access to hours of technique-based video and audio? The SMIC Program is a monthly podcast and coaching program where you get access to massive amounts of exclusive, members-only Alpha 2.0 content as soon as you sign up, and you can cancel whenever you want. Click here for the details.