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Laying Odds on the Upcoming Presidential Election
I’m out of the business of predicting who will win presidential elections in the USA. The American electorate has clearly become way too irrational for me to accurately predict these things like I used to. Want proof? The two candidates about whom people are most excited are an openly-admitted socialist and a guy who wants to build a wall.
-By Caleb Jones
So who will win the 2016 presidential election? I have no idea. Who will win the Democrat or Republican primaries? I have no idea.
However, I can still do what I always do with business, women, blackjack, investing, and many other areas of life that have worked very well for me: I can lay odds on what is most likely to occur.
I’m not a professional political analyst, so I can’t give you specific percentages. Instead of saying “Jeb Bush has a 72% chance of winning the Republican primaries,” I can simply say whether the odds are for it (51% or more) or against it (50% or less).
Before we talk about what is most likely to happen, I have to declare the one thing that could wipe out all of these odds and change the entire game, and that’s this: If Hillary gets indicted for her crimes regarding her illegal private email server. It is now proven that Hillary broke federal law by having unprotected, classified data on her personal server and email account. Just like her husband before her, she’s lied to your face multiple times about this as well as changed her story several times.
If the feds actually issue an indictment against Hillary, she will be effectively removed from the presidential campaign. Then EVERYTHING changes, and I mean everything. If this actually happens, guys who right now have virtually no chance of winning (including our two favorite psychos, Bernie and Donald) actually get within easy striking distance of the presidency. Under this scenario, this will be the most interesting and entertaining presidential election of my lifetime. So let’s lay odds on that first.
Likelihood that Hillary Clinton will be indicted before the end of the 2016 presidential election: UNLIKELY Why? Because as I’ve been saying for about 20 years, Hillary Clinton is the most successful criminal in mainstream American politics. She’s committed crime, after crime, after crime, for literally decades, and she hasn’t been caught yet. Bill and Hillary are extremely skilled at breaking the law and slithering away before they go to prison. (Of course many other people they work with go to prison, but not them.)
She gets away with everything, and likely she’ll get away with this too. But if for some amazing reasons she doesn’t get away with this, every percentage in the remainder of this article becomes inaccurate. I guess we’ll have to watch and see. For the remainder of this article I’m going to assume she gets away with it (since that’s what’s most likely).
Who Will Win The Democrat Primaries?
You can check out the latest polls here, but at the time of this writing, Hillary is leading Bernie Sanders by about 18 points nationally, and Joe Biden, even though he’s not running, is right behind Bernie. Everyone else is less than 2 percent.
OVERWHELMINGLY LIKELY winner of the Democratic nomination: HILLARY CLINTON
Yes, I know Bernie is ahead of Hillary in individual states like New Hampshire. This doesn't matter at all for reasons I'll explain when I get to the Republicans.
Unless she goes to prison, Hillary’s got it. Like Ron Paul, Bernie Sanders will get a lot of young people fired up, and then the establishment elites will crush him and lead Hillary over his broken bones. Moreover, Bernie lacks the optics to win a presidential election in shallow America. Instead of a decently good-looking guy (like Obama, Bush, Clinton, etc) he's an ugly, wild-haired old man who's like a Doc Brown with a thick Brooklyn accent. Not gonna happen in this Kardashian culture.
As I’ve said before, Bernie Sanders is the future of this country, but he’s about 15 years too early. Several presidential elections from now, we will indeed have an openly-socialist president, but not today. (Good thing I won’t be living in the US by then.)
Who Will Win The Republican Primaries?
In current national polls, Trump is about 27 percent, Ben Carson is about 23 percent, Jeb Bush is about 8 percent, and everyone else is under 6 percent. Who’s going to win?
LIKELY (but not overwhelmingly) winner of the Republican nomination: JEB BUSH
Bush? What about Trump? He's kicking everyone's asses in the polls right now.
Doesn't matter. Remember the last time we had Republican primaries? Michelle Bachman was number one in the polls, and everyone thought she was going to win. Then Rick Perry was number one, and everyone thought he was going to win. Then Herman Cain was number one, and everyone thought he was going to win. Then Newt Gingrich, and on an on.
During this entire time, I kept saying "This is all bullshit. It's Romney." I said Mitt Romney would win, because that’s whom the elites chose to win. The elites choose their man, and give all their money to him, pull all the necessary strings in the media, and he wins. That’s how this works. And of course, he won the nomination as I said he would at the very beginning. It was the same in 2007-08 when I said John McCain would win the nomination when everyone thought Rudy Giuliani would be the guy because he was number one in the polls.
Like Bachman/Perry/Cain/Gingrich before him, Ben Carson is very likely to diminish in the polls quite soon, and unless something amazing happens, Trump will not win the nomination. The elites and the political establishment HATE Donald Trump. Trump doesn’t follow orders, thinks certain groups of rich people aren’t paying enough in taxes, and is anti-globalism. Ohhhh, the elites aren’t having any of that. They’re going to use every weapon in their arsenal to take Trump down. Eventually.
This will leave the door open for Jeb, who use all the money given by his elite friends. The elites love Jeb. Just like Obama before him, he’s an intellectual little beta male who will happily follow orders from his corporatist masters. Like with Romney, it won’t be a strong win, but it will be a win.
Of course I could be wrong. I’m just giving you the odds here. There is a nonzero chance Trump could win the nomination; it's simply not likely.
Who Will Be Our Next President?
Based on the above, unless something unusual happens (which is certainly possible but not likely), we’re looking at a Hillary vs. Jeb presidential election, the ones the elites planned on all along. The elites will happily take either corrupt Hillary or wimpy Jeb, so to further pretend that you live in a democracy, they’re going to “demonstrate” how different these two people are when in fact they’re about 85% identical. They’re both ultra-wealthy, big government, pro-banker, pro-war, and deeply entrenched in the establishment. Both Hillary and Jeb have the words “status quo” emblazoned on their foreheads. The elites couldn’t be more proud (and you couldn’t be more screwed).
LIKELY winner of the 2016 USA presidential election: HILLARY, by a near-landslide.
Two very simple reasons:
1. America is now a left-wing country. The vast majority of women, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, gays, and young people will now automatically vote for the Democrat candidate for president no matter who it is. Yes, many Hillary voters will know she’s a criminal and hopelessly dishonest, and this might bother some of them, but they’ll robotically vote for her anyway.
2. American left-wingers have very different voting patterns than modern-day American right-wingers. Left-liberals mobilize in lockstep when they see a Republican candidate, even if they hate their own candidate. Lefties are collectivist creatures. However, if American right-wingers hate their own candidate, they snort in disgust and stay home instead of vote. This is why Romney lost.
As I’ve said before, pretty much all Bernie Sanders’ voters are also Hillary Clinton voters, even if they say they “hate” Hillary. However, Donald Trump voters are not Jeb Bush voters. As soon as Bernie loses and Hillary becomes the nominee, Bernie voters will turn the anger they felt for Hillary and instantly redirect it at Jeb, and they’ll make damn sure they get out and vote against him.
Trump voters will take one look at Jeb, (correctly) scream that he’s not a conservative and doesn’t give a shit about the country, buy more bullets for their guns, and stay home on Election Day. Result? In a Hillary vs. Jeb race, Hillary wins easily. It won’t even be close. Once again, America will have yet another dynastic, corporatist president, and the decline will continue (if not hasten).
Because of all these above reasons, I honestly have trouble envisioning a Republican president ever being elected in the USA again. (The only exception to this would be if a future Republican shifted strongly to the left.) Enjoy the decline!
If Something Strange DOES Happen
What if something unusual does happen? What if Hillary goes to prison where she belongs? What if Jeb gets caught up in some kind of scandal al la Herman Cain? What if Trump pulls a rabbit out of his hat (or should I say, his billions) and suddenly surges in the polls during the final weeks of the primaries and gets the nomination? What if Joe Biden enters the race?
With the possible exception of Biden, all of these scenarios are unlikely (less than 50% chance of occurring), but unlikely doesn’t mean impossible. If any of these happens, I’ll write an updated version of this article and run the odds again.
One last thing about Trump. Although I don’t want him for president, I think it’s fantastic that a complete outsider, an anti-establishment guy is getting so much poll support and attention. The same goes for Bernie Sanders (who again, I would never want for president). When people outside of the Republican-Democrat paradigm get major support, sometimes things do actually change for the better, at least for a while. The only reason, and I mean the only reason Bill Clinton balanced the budget in the 1990s (he didn’t really balance it, but that’s a discussion for another time) was because Ross Perot, an outsider and independent, got 19% of the popular vote in the 1992 election. The Republican-Democrat oligarchs were scared to death when this happened, and they took action by balancing the budget; Perot’s signature issue.
If Trump or Bernie really get close to screwing up an establishment election (which hasn’t happened yet), some good might come out of it even if they don’t win. Won’t prevent the eventual decline though...maybe pause it for a few minutes.
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Guy 2015-09-17 15:30:00
Interesting analysis, I have to agree with you there. Personally, I've grown less interested in politics over the years. I think that as our unfunded liabilities grow and our status as a debtor nation become more apparent, our financial situation will become way more important than domestic politics. I'm more interested in your long term plans for expatriation. I've tossed around the idea before, but currently my income isn't location independent. In an emergency, I'd probably go for Paraguay, as you can apparently buy citizenship for $5000. If I had an online business, I'd probably opt for the Philippines. Low cost of living, many beautiful women who speak english, warm weather, and beaches. Having to renew your visa every 6 months and making a visa run once a year would be a pain though. Opening a safe deposit box in Singapore would probably be a good hedge, though with FATCA it may be harder now. If you haven't already, you may want to look into http://www.sovereignman.com/articles/ for ideas. Ignoring the obvious sales pitches and fear mongering, he does give useful advice once in a while.
Caleb Jones 2015-09-17 16:18:50
I’m more interested in your long term plans for expatriation.I'll be talking a lot more about this in upcoming posts. I'll be in Asia for an entire month soon, and will be spending two months per year outside of the US in preparation for an eventual move.
In an emergency, I’d probably go for Paraguay, as you can apparently buy citizenship for $5000.Yep, Paraguay would be viable. I'd consider that "on my list," though not very high on the list.
Having to renew your visa every 6 months and making a visa run once a year would be a pain though.Not to me, since I like to travel anyway. But I understand your point. And yes, I already subscribe to Simon's newsletter. Like you said, lots of fearmongering (par for the course for the extreme libertarian types) but good info occasionally.
Randy 2015-09-18 09:40:46
Hey Caleb, great article. I was curious, do you think that Trump would even get elected if he won the popular vote? Seems like the electoral college would just choose not to vote for him. I'm thinking that would probably be the elites' last chance nuclear option in the case of an outsider actually getting in.
Tony 2015-09-18 10:56:07
You're pretty much right here, although Democrats tend to be more willing to nominate anti-establishment people than Republicans are. Hilary should still be favored. Personally, I support Sanders. He's a little to the left of me, but the President isn't a dictator, so he simply won't be implement most of the ideas I disagree with.
Caleb Jones 2015-09-18 12:35:29
I was curious, do you think that Trump would even get elected if he won the popular vote?Extremely unlikely, but it would also matter who he was running against. I'll say it again - America is too left-wing to elect a brash, right-wing, rich billionaire who brags about his money and talks about Mexicans committing rape. In the 80s and perhaps even the 90s, Trump would have cleaned up, but not anymore.
You’re pretty much right here, although Democrats tend to be more willing to nominate anti-establishment people than Republicans are.True. Conservatives are by their nature, conservative.
Personally, I support Sanders. He’s a little to the left of me, but the President isn’t a dictatorWrong. That statement isn't 100% false any more. Today, via the military, executive orders, and other mechanisms, the US president wields vast, emperor-like power that the founding fathers never intended. Bush went to war against Iraq for no reason. Obama made 5 million illegals legal with the stroke of a pen. He unilaterally picked out companies (his friends) who weren't subject to Obamacare. Etc. If Bernie were elected he would wield far more power than it states in the Constitution. And being a big-government guy, he would use it. Gleefully. This is a recurring error in your comments: You keep assuming the real world operates exactly like it states in books or college courses. It doesn't. You really need to start thinking outside of what you read.
Tony 2015-09-19 13:06:26
There is a lot of stuff the president can do by themselves, but those things I agree with Sanders on. For example, foreign policy is controlled almost completely by the president, and I haven't seen any instance where I disagreed with Sanders on foreign policy. On the other hand, he supports a $15 minimum wage, which I think is too high, but he would be unable to do that on his own.
LondonPUA 2015-09-20 10:59:00
Hey Caleb, That was a very interesting and considered article, it will be fascinating to see how the US elections develop in the next few weeks /months. you mentioned and referred to the elites and the power that they yield. would you be able to write an article going further into this? i.e, who the elites are? what they want, how they operate, etc etc, I know it is easy to slip into sounding like a conspiracy theorist, but I would love to hear your ideas. peace!
Caleb Jones 2015-09-20 12:47:41
Sure. The elites are made of of mostly: - Heads of state, federal-level politicians and upper-level lobbyists - Heads (or near-heads) of industry (including banks, the fortune 500, etc) - Upper-level billionaires and their funded groups / proxies It's not a secret conspiracy. A lot of people already know about the Bilderberg meetings, the Council on Foreign Relations, etc. They have their own websites and publish the locations of their meetings publicly. Also, a lot of their efforts aren't coordinated in group conspiracy fashion at all. Billionaires on the left (George Soros, etc) and the right (the Koch brothers, etc) just do what they want. They have so much money and power they don't necessarily need to coordinate with other elites. An article on this might be a good idea though.
LondonPUA 2015-09-20 17:40:58
Thanks for the reply! And yes I understand what you mean now and who you are referring to, an article on this would be awesome, if you can include some extra tips on how to join the elites too, that would be great too! 🙂
Richard 2015-10-17 20:53:10
the "Elites" are the Jews and their bought Gentile friends, Caleb is just too much of a pragmatist to say it.
Minorities Hate Bernie Sanders...but Like Trump? - Caleb Jones 2015-11-04 04:49:25
[…] I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Bernie Sanders is the left-wing Ron Paul. He’s an old guy who’s ideologically pure, who turns on a lot of young people, and who has exactly zero chance of being elected president. This is because A) the elites won’t allow it and B) the voting populace is too irrational. I mean, I don’t want Bernie, but if you put a gun to my head I’d take Bernie the Socialist over Hillary the Lizard Queen. But both the elites and the lower-class disagree with me, so soon it will be All Hail Our New Scaly Ruler (unless something unusual happens). […]