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How Bad Will It Get? What Exactly Will Happen?
-By Caleb Jones
How bad is it going to get? What exactly is going to happen? What is the worst case scenario you think is going to occur? When will this all happen?
I’ve answered all of these questions in comment form on all of my blogs over the last few years, but I’ve never actually written a full article about it. That’s what I’ll do today.
What Will Probably NOT Happen
Right off the bat, I’ll state for the record that I don’t think we’re in for some kind of Mad Max, Alex Jones, Glenn Beck, post-apocalyptic catastrophe. I don’t think we’ll have some kind of global nuclear war or world-wide collapse that sets the entire human race back into the Stone Age, where we’ll all have to huddle in huts in the desert clutching our bullets and water skins. Absolutely none of my data or my research indicate anything like this, even in worst case scenarios.
As an economist friend of mine once told me when I was interviewing him for my monthly coaching program, “History has reliably shown that humans always have major problems, but we get through it.” He’s right.
I'll admit these kinds of doomsday scenarios are possible, but they’re well under the 2% Rule, so I don’t worry about it. You should still have food and water stores in your home, just in case your city loses power for a week, or if there is rioting near your neighborhood for an evening or two.
For example, in my house I have a store of two weeks of water (that includes water for both drinking and washing), 30 days of non-perishable food, the ability to cook and stay warm without any electricity or natural gas for an extended period, and various other safeguards, mostly from my extensive camping and hiking experience. But, this isn’t because I expect World War III or an alien invasion. That’s 2% Rule stuff. Instead, it’s to cover my ass in case of something like an earthquake, temporary civil unrest, or Hurricane Katrina, and something like that is above a 2% likelihood in my lifetime, thus I’m prepared.
That’s what won’t happen. Let’s talk about what will happen.
What Will Happen
I have no idea exactly what will happen and neither does anyone else. This is an important point. Any time anyone lays out specifically and definitively what they think will happen, they’re either delusional or lying. They don’t know. You don’t know. I don’t know. No one can tell the future with 100% accuracy. If you could, you’d be a high-end billionaire right now. So, if you ever read on the internet about specific predictions of what’s going to happen and when they’re going to happen, ask yourself if that guy is a self-made billionaire. If not, then ignore the bastard.
What I can give you, with reasonable accuracy, is a general idea of several possible scenarios that are likely to occur. One or more of these things will likely happen. As to which of these things will happen, I have no idea. I just know that the odds are very high that at least one of them will occur.
I will list these possible scenarios in ascending order, from least-bad to most-bad:
In this scenario, certain groups of Westerners snap out of their “We must make this work and save our culture!” haze, wise up, and secede from their greater parasite countries. This means states in the US secede from the union and declare independence, and/or European countries break away from the EU and go back to their own currencies, and/or provinces in Canada or European nations break away from their host countries.
Longtime readers may remember that last year, Scotland almost did this and I got very excited. Unfortunately, they pussied out and continue to suck on England’s teat.
In addition to Scotland, here are several places that may finally get some balls and break away from their oppressors, such as:
Texas, New Hampshire, or Alaska in the US
Quebec in Canada
Tibet in China
Catalonia in Spain
...and various other places, all over the Western world.
Secession is by far the best, or should I say least-bad scenario. If the shit does hit the fan, I’m strongly hoping for it to happen like this. As the US and EU continue to crumble and self-destruct, if smarter, smaller countries or states/provinces pull away and declare real independence from these beasts, there’s great hope for these smaller countries. (The larger host countries will still be screwed).
For example, if any state in the US ever secedes, I will immediately shift my plans to move there instead of outside the of the US. Odds are that a state like this will lean politically right, not left (leftists are too collectivist to ever secede from anything; this helps explain Scotland), so there’s at least a chance that small government principles might be followed there. Also, the smaller the country, the better, since it’s more manageable. This is one of the main reasons why places like Hong Kong and Singapore do so well; they’re little.
2. Slow Decline into Irrelevance
People are often surprised to learn that 400 years ago, Portugal ruled the world.
Yeah. Portugal was a military and maritime superpower, and more or less ruled the Earth. Even distant nations in Asia feared them and kissed their asses. Today, Portugal is a silly, tiny, bankrupt country that the IMF keeps having to bail out, that barely shows up on a map, and that hardly anyone knows about.
In this scenario, this is what happens to the West, specifically the US and Europe. There’s no major event or collapse that wipes everything out or screws everything up. Instead, every few years the US/Europe gets smaller, weaker, stupider, poorer, and more indebted.
If this happens, in 100-150 years or so the US is a tiny little country the size of Rhode Island that everyone makes fun of, surrounded by large Chinese and/or Hispanic dominated nations (and maybe a few small white ones too). What was once called Europe is now a tiny region the size of....Portugal, surrounded by predominantly Muslim and/or African nations (who will probably be bankrupt also). The power, wealth, and technology will all be in Asia (and possibly in some South American countries like Argentina, if they straighten up).
The cyberpunk novel Snow Crash demonstrated how this would look. In the book, the US is a collapsed, decentralized, bankrupt nation with a “federal government” that acts tough, but has no real power and everyone laughs at it. (I strongly recommend the book, by the way).
The slow decline scenario is pretty bad, but at least it takes a long time, giving you plenty of time to adjust, prepare, and/or move elsewhere.
3. Currency Crisis
This is what I believe is the most likely scenario.
In this scenario, the US dollar and/or the Euro hyperinflates or hyperdeflates, absolutely ruining jobs and businesses all across the Western world, and destroying personal wealth on a mass scale.
In a hyperinflation scenario, major nations like China stop borrowing money from the US, and billions or even trillions of dollars flood back into the US, crashing the value of the dollar and turning the United States into 1920’s Weimar Republic. Suddenly, a loaf of bread costs $300 and all of your savings, investments, and real estate are suddenly worthless (unless you own gold; then make piles of money and get rich). Mass chaos ensues, and we’re in for a very painful few years until the free market adjusts, or big corporatist governments manipulate a temporary fix.
In a hyperdeflation scenario, some major catastrophe occurs somewhere in the world outside of the US, like Europe collapsing or a major Asian or European war, and the world flees to the US dollar. Or, everything is fine in the world but the US stock market bubble finally bursts. In either case, the stock market crashes at least 75% and commodities crash in a similar fashion. What remains of the US manufacturing sector gets completely wiped out. Banks call in all of their debts and no one can pay them, creating a scenario like the 1980s Savings and Loan Crisis, only 100 times worse, with everyone losing their homes and cars. Everyone is screwed (except for people with zero debt who own vast amounts of liquid dollars; they quickly buy everything in sight get very rich a few years later when things get back to normal).
Inflation or deflation, the entire Western world enters a deep depression that lasts several years. It’s very, very bad.
This scenario I consider the least likely, but it's still possible.
In this scenario, people get sick and tired of the stagnant economy and other cultural and social ills, and a Hitler-like person takes power in a major nation, such as in the US, England, France, or Germany, along with many other people that support him (or her) in the congressional bodies of said nation.
Sweeping, authoritarian changes are enacted. Personal and business bank accounts, retirement accounts, and other assets are seized for the Good of the Nation™. Free speech is revoked “temporarily,” which is a lie. Foreigners are blamed for everything and are expelled or imprisoned. Travel outside of the country is limited, making citizens unable to leave their dying nation unless they hold foreign passports. A nationwide content-blocking internet firewall like China’s is put in place. War is also very likely.
The economy doesn’t crash but stagnates, except for the few industries or companies the government supports through extreme corporatism, morphing into fascism. Personal freedom vanishes.
Thankfully, I don’t think this scenario will happen, since this would be the product of an angry right-wing which is in the minority all over the Western world. Yet, I have to acknowledge its possibility, since historically it has happened many times. This is one of the biggest reasons why I’m working on getting a second passport.
5. War (and/or Large-Scale Terrorism)
This is pretty self-explanatory. Various possible scenarios include:
- Putin finally crosses a line of no return and causes a major war between Russia and European nations, forcing China and/or the US to get involved.
- A European nation loses it, explodes like a powder keg, and drags other reluctant nations into war, causing a WWI type scenario.
- China finally loses it and smacks down Taiwan or Japan for old territories it’s always craved. The US gets involved to some degree and things get very scary.
- US neocons finally get their way and launch a direct attack against Iran, ostensibly as some kind of response from a real or invented terrorist event. Russia and/or China gets involved on Iran's side and things get very scary.
- An exact repeat of the 2000s: another 9/11-type event occurs somewhere in the US. It could be nuclear, biological, conventional, or something else. Thousands of civilians die, the US goes mad with rage as only Americans can, and launches major attacks against one or more nations that had nothing to do with it. Non-stop war ensues for the next 15 years. Hundreds of thousands die, American taxpayers pay trillions, more freedoms permanently vanish, the goverment goes even deeper into debt and seals its eventual bankruptcy, corporatist CEOs and politicans get rich, strongmen get elected and pass more insane laws.
- Civil war, likely in Europe. Nationalists get fed up with left-wing multiculturalism, protests occur, things get violent, the goverment cracks down, and the situation escalates into a real civil war in one or more European nations. It doesn't spill out into other countries, but things inside the civil war nation go to shit and get very dangerous.
Exactly how bad it gets in a war scenario really depends on what happens, where it happens, and where you live. Generally speaking, Europeans are much more at personal risk than Americans, though Americans won’t be happy either. I don’t envision a WWIII scenario, but you’ll still likely be in personal danger, particularly if you live in Europe. Economic problems ensue and people get screwed (except for speculators or people invested in things like oil, who get rich). Totalitarian measures are enacted, particularly in the US. The safest people are those who live in neutral areas who stay out of this crap, like in South America.
When It Might Happen
So if something bad like this happens, when will it happen?
Like I said above, if I had the answer to that, I’d be a billionaire. No one knows when this stuff will happen, so all we can do is guess as to a range.
My prediction is that one or more of the above scenarios will happen within the next 2-20 years, though I think it’s more likely to happen in 7+ years. The longer we go without it happening, the more likely it will become.
I plan on moving my home base to outside the US in nine years, but I have safeguards in place where I could move much sooner if I needed to. Hopefully this stuff won’t happen in the next nine years, but it’s entirely possible. I will still be affected by it much less than the typical person for reasons I’ve described in my books and blogs.
So there you go. Next time you’re wondering how bad I think it will get, now you know. I recommend you prepare yourself for the coming problems ahead, but without being a conspiracy theorist or a panic-driven spazoid. Think preparation and calmness, not panic or irrationality.
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Netbug 2016-03-22 08:43:51
I'm curious if you have any idea where automation fits into this? Specifically, the shift of intellectual and physical labour from human to machine. The burden of taxation will need to shift wholly, over time, to corporations and away from the individuals as employment plummets yet some mechanism needs to be put in place to allow the continued buying power of consumers. Also, Snow Crash is awesome. I wish they'd pull the trigger and finally make it into a movie.
Alejandro 2016-03-22 08:49:49
Scary o_O You say you could move much sooner if you need to. What kind things would you consider as signs that the situation is going to get bad in a few years, and make you accelerate your moving plans? "and real estate are suddenly worthless" I don't exactly understand this. Why is owning real state bad in a situation like this? Seems to me in a situation like this you really want to own your home, because the rent or bank payments are going way up. And you can just wait to sell the property in a few years when things calm down. And this is going a bit into paranoid gunfreak territory but wouldn't you advice Americans to stock up on guns and ammo in addition to food? Also investing in something like a safety door for your home. When things get real bad (welfare money stops, police stops working, etc) is not hard to imagine groups of men ganging up and breaking into homes to steal things.
Felix 2016-03-22 08:57:09
But how do you hedge against hyperinflation and deflation? Considering how much money the US has in circulation and that the Chinese are selling US Bond holdings and that the RMB is going to become a reserve currency, my take is that inflation of the US currency is much more likely to happen than deflation.
Caleb Jones 2016-03-22 10:27:10
I’m curious if you have any idea where automation fits into this?It doesn't. That's not an event, it's a natural progression that started around 120 years ago. Society will slowly adjust over time, with some pain, as usual.
The burden of taxation will need to shift wholly, over time, to corporations and away from the individuals as employment plummets yet some mechanism needs to be put in place to allow the continued buying power of consumers.You've said that before, and I'll repeat my answer: socialism doesn't work, and socialism doesn't suddenly start working just because technology makes certain jobs obsolete. Society will have to find another answer if it wants a long-term solution, and it probably will (after some pain).
You say you could move much sooner if you need to.Yup.
What kind things would you consider as signs that the situation is going to get bad in a few years, and make you accelerate your moving plans?The economy. I watch economic conditions carefully. Normal recessions are okay, but if something horrible happens, I'm outta here.
Seems to me in a situation like this you really want to own your home, because the rent or bank payments are going way up. And you can just wait to sell the property in a few years when things calm down.You're correct. Even in a real estate crash if you own your own home with no mortage and don't move for many years, you'll probably be okay. The problem is: 1. How many people do you know who own their own home with *no* mortgage? 2. How many people want to stay in their current house their in for another 5-10 years even if they don't want to?
And this is going a bit into paranoid gunfreak territory but wouldn’t you advice Americans to stock up on guns and ammo in addition to food?Guns is a different topic, but in general, yes. (I'm not admitting to anything though.)
But how do you hedge against hyperinflation and deflation?Gold (and precious metals) for inflation, liquid dollars and zero debt for deflation. I realize those are opposites, so you could have stores of both.
Considering how much money the US has in circulation and that the Chinese are selling US Bond holdings and that the RMB is going to become a reserve currency, my take is that inflation of the US currency is much more likely to happen than deflation.I completely agree. But I have to admit deflation is also possible. We live in a very odd time right now.
Felix 2016-03-22 10:51:23
The Japanese have had deflation for the last 10+ years. They eventually went with a massive devaluation of 100 Yen to 1 USD to 160 Yen to 1 USD. So even if deflation hits the US, the best thing appears to be in Gold and other currency or currencies that won't get devalued or end up being massively inflated. With the crazy negative interest rates on bonds starting to be talked about in Europe, I can't imagine holding the Euro. For some strange reason they think that negative interest rates will stave off inflation, deflation, etc. As someone with an economics degree, I know my professors back in the day would be laughing their asses off right now at the crazy stuff the current "economists" are spouting.
Randy 2016-03-22 16:43:31
Great article, scary stuff though. You mentioned that you don't think nuclear war would be a likely scenario, but isn't that going to happen if two countries that have nukes start a war?
Felix 2016-03-22 16:51:09
Which two countries with Nukes start a war? If you're talking about the ones with Thermonuclear weapons. Not gonna happen. That's why they use cat's paws. If you're talking about India and Pakistan, that is certainly a possibility but even they have been talking because being vaporized, for some reason, doesn't sound like a good way to resolve your problems. You won't have any problems left, afterwards. For instance the current BS with China over the South China sea, the US informed the Chinese they were going to come through. The Chinese sent a ship to follow the US ship. The ships were in constant communication. Does that sound like they want to vaporize everything over someone else's property? The reason the US is making a big deal over the South China sea is because they need some way to turn SE Asia against China to slow China down economically. Unfortunately, it's not working. The US has tried to get China to build a massive military machine to drive their own economy into the ground like the Soviets did. That also didn't work. They're not sure what to do now.
Caleb Jones 2016-03-22 17:10:45
With the crazy negative interest rates on bonds starting to be talked about in Europe, I can’t imagine holding the Euro.Yes I would stay the hell away from the Euro. I hate the US Dollar too, but there are many scenarios under which the dollar might do well because most of the world thinks it's safe (which it isn't).
You mentioned that you don’t think nuclear war would be a likely scenario, but isn’t that going to happen if two countries that have nukes start a war?No. Very unlikely. Everyone is terrified of using nukes, rightly so. That includes Russia and China too. If a nuke is used anywhere it will be done by insane terrorists, not by statists and politicians of major nations with lots to lose.
Fraser Orr 2016-03-22 17:26:30
One comment on the hyper inflation scenario. The United States is not set up for the type of hyper inflation that hit Germany or Argentina or Zimbabwe or many others. The reason is due to the way the debt is structured. Hyper inflation occurs when the government has massive debt and to pay that debt they print more money. By printing more money they devalue the money but the debt's value stays the same, so they print more money and more to fill the gap hoping to seek some relief in arbitrage, until you get one of these: http://www.ebay.com/itm/like/121610431831?lpid=82&chn=ps&ul_noapp=true However, there is one crucial difference with American debt (and the often forgotten unfunded liabilities) and that is that pretty much all that debt is denominated in dollars. So what that means is that by printing more money not only does the money devalue, but the debt does too. That means the run away craziness doesn't happen. Germany's WWI debt was denominated in gold, and other countries suffering this fate denominated most of their debt either in commodity or in foreign currency that they couldn't control. That isn't to say that the US can't under go a major financial correction. It can and really one is due. I think we can realistically see something similar to the depression of the 1930s. And of the course the real problem is that the conventional wisdom about that is entirely wrong. (Namely that "greedy" stock market speculators created it, and FDR rescued us from it, when in fact the truth is that the ham handed Federal reserve board caused it, and FDR both deepened it an prolonged it, being rescued only by WWII.) So when it comes they can't fix it. Look at what Obama did to much cheering last time -- exactly the opposite of the right thing. So I don't foresee wheelbarrows full of money, just a deeply compromised currency and perhaps an uprising when all those unfunded obligations get met with funny money.
Felix 2016-03-22 18:01:23
The problem is that it may not happen in the next 10 years but as the US keeps printing money and piling up debt, the reserve currency status has a way of getting away from you. You should be able to see this coming from a mile away. Much higher debt. People starts using other currency instead of US dollars, etc. But it can happen. And there is a runaway effect. People lose confidence in the US dollar because the US piles on too much debt and can't pay so prints more money. You can only do this so many times before people will dump your currency. China is setting up it's own swift system and other countries are increasing their use of the RMB. Once a parallel system is in place, what appears to be a sudden shift can take place. Suddenly the US dollar is no longer used worldwide (suddenly meaning that it just appears that way but has been happening for 10 years or more) and then you can have hyperinflation. Rise and Fall of Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 shows that it can happen to the strongest empires with the strongest currencies. And it happens over and over again because no one thought it could happen to them, ironically.
Felix 2016-03-22 18:03:04
@Caleb I'm just not sure what to do about the dollar. I guess I will just have to see what the US govt. does. This is so annoying that you can't find a rational govt. who isn't spending itself into the ground. Is that too much to ask for?
Tony 2016-03-22 18:26:10
In a hyperinflation event real estate would actually be one of the best investments you could have. A building's value would go up with inflation, but the debt you owe on the building wouldn't. If I'm making $1k payments on my mortgage on a rental house and getting rent of $2k, then suddenly the cost of everything triples, I still only have to make $1k payments, bu now I'm getting $6k in rent. For Fraser Orr's claim that FDR made the recession worse and only WW2 ended it, I don't know why people believe this when 5 minutes of research would show it's wrong. Unemployment reached it's peak, and GDP reached it's lowest, right when FDR's presidency began. By the time Japan bombed Pearl Harbor in 1941 both of those factors had been improving for many years.I guess some people are so determined to push their own ideology that they come up with a theory first then try and find facts to support it rather than letting the evidence guide their beliefs.
Fraser Orr 2016-03-22 20:05:28
@Felix > and then you can have hyperinflation. Sorry to nit pick Felix, but you don't. You can certainly have pretty serious inflation with some of the scenarios you mentioned, but hyperinflation, where the value of currency goes to effectively zero and "inflation" is meaningless, only occurs by the mechanism I outlined earlier, and unless the US creates debts in a currency it doesn't control that just won't happen. @Tony > I still only have to make $1k payments, bu now I’m getting $6k in rent. That assumes that you have a customer who can pay your rent. If you don't then you have no money coming in at all, an empty house and an unserviced debt, probably resulting in the bank owning your property. If you actually OWN the real estate (rather than owning it with a massive lien) it might be a store of value, but I'm not convinced of that at all. Inflation is really > 5 minutes of research would show it’s wrong. Unemployment reached it’s peak, and GDP reached it’s lowest, right when FDR’s presidency began. That is rather misleading. You can see the graph on the wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression Unemployment was utterly out of control for the whole time of FDR's presidency. He did not fix the problem at all. If he had done nothing the strong american economy would have quickly recovered, especially if the Fed had stopped its meddling. But FDR consumed the resources of the nation on many ridiculous boondoggles rather than allowing the profit motive and the energy of the american people to recover the economy as it had many times before. The US had many recessions and depressions before that and none of them went as deep or lasted as long as the one the FDR presided over. And the reason why is actually not all that hard to understand. My ex-wife's grandfather was a dentist in the deep south during the 1930s. When one of the locals desperately needed dental work he would come over to the old man and offer to trade a chicken or to work in the yard for a few days in exchange for the dental work. This was pretty commonplace, and the reason is simple -- the failure of money. One of the primary purposes of money is to allow the exchange of value between two people. It measures a value for products or services consequently heterogeneous products and services become tradable. Moreover it provides a short term store of that value to facilitate trade. The fact that Bubba couldn't use money for this very purpose to trade his valuable chicken or yardwork for the valuable services of a dentist tells you that it was the utter failure of the money system that was at the root of the great depression. Money controlled by the quasi governmental organization of the Federal Reserve. The Fed caused the stock market crash by unilaterally and brutally strangling credit in the middle of 1929, and continued to stagnate the economy as the followed the untested and foolish prognostications of FDR. The laws of economics apply just as much to the government as they do to you and me. And you can't spend yourself out of debt and poverty. By the time Japan bombed Pearl Harbor in 1941 both of those factors had been improving for many years.I guess some people are so determined to push their own ideology that they come up with a theory first then try and find facts to support it rather than letting the evidence guide their beliefs.
Felix 2016-03-22 20:42:52
So no hyperinflation but high inflation and devaluation of the Dollar over a long period, say 20 years, is horrible for your stored value. By the time the inflation is done with you, you would have much much less. It would be like paying a 10% tax every year on your wealth if the inflation rate is 10% while other currencies retain their value. At the rate the US government is borrowing, how long until that is the case and how long will it last since other empires have borrowed until they couldn't borrow any more and then their currency collapsed. I don't know if you think that can happen or not but history would say otherwise and when it crashes, it tends to happen fast, in the period of a few years. I don't believe that the US will end up like any of the European nations, simply because the US is bigger and as long as the government doesn't continue to increase taxes as time goes on, the US will be fine. However, it appears that the US is heading in the direction of Bernie whether he gets nominated then elected or not. If that happens, it's only a matter of time before US corporations run away to other countries. Which would accelerate the currency crash. So no hyperinflation but certainly large inflation over years and devaluation. The thing that annoys me is I can't tell how long that will take. It only took the Soviets a few decades to become bankrupt and crash their economy.
Fearghas Fischer 2016-04-11 09:45:28
I was reading comments relating to the manosphere on the BD blog. You were talking about the European Migrant crisis, and you also said that there is nothing we can do to save the western world. First off, i agree. The migrant issue is just a reflection of an already broken system. For instance, the UK and France have been receiving muslims and other ethnic minorities for years before the German situation. It's been unfolding for a while. However, i would like to add a couple of points. I think people's idea of Western Europe or America, or wherever, is inherently attached to what we call 'the west'. What does this actually mean though? It's not really a geographical term, it is a political slogan reflecting economic and social domination-which is naturally coming to a close (ie Western Europe is 'the west', but Eastern Europe is not-but their both Europe right?) This is not necessarily a bad thing. It's just the way of nature and empires. As you said on the BC manosphere post, just because 'the west' (which is some bullshit catch all phrase) collapses, because it was folly to begin with, doesn't mean Europe or USA will. The west is just a concept, like islam. The countries are reality. With that said, things will simply evolve. However, there are some scenarios where if we let things 'crumble' without taking any action, they won't. The migrant crisis has ebbed recently because of the closing of the borders, i think the regressive leftist governments and the EU will collapse as a result of this, but we still have the problem of the migrants already here. However, i think when someone say's 'we cannot be saved fuck it move to Asia' is very dangerous way of thinking, because your pandering to the 'just lay down and die' culture of micro aggressions and PC crap that got us to this cuckolded weakness of spirit in the first place. I'm not saying we need to fight to save the west, that should die. However, we may need to fight to save ourselves, and the basis for us as a people, otherwise there will be no world left to move to. The world is connected by six degrees of separation more than we think, one thing affects another in more ways than we think. If Europe was invaded by Muslims-that would be the end of the world generally. Europe has a lot of economic importance (even if it's fading) that connects to the prosperity of seemingly unrelated places such as China. The muslim problem is everybody's problem-it's unique in the fact it's a that is a virus that does not discriminate. If your not a muslim-your the enemy. This has to be dealt with regardless of the the west’s fading supremacy. This means that this is all our problem, and if we don't fight it now- and we just say 'fuck it' and leave without making a stand, and let them take Europe (i'm not saying that's happening, i'm just saying it could) that's A) fucking weak and B) the end of everything because a country like China will have to get involved because it affects them in the long run, they are making moves to ban islam-which is very telling of the scale of the issue. Russia and FSFU countries will also never allow these people at their borders, considering their tepid history with this cancerous ideology. Europe has nuclear weapons, even if these people have an IQ of 85 and are illiterate, they are fanatics and will find a way to use what is at their disposal. We simply cannot let that happen. Ever. That's not saving the west, it's just basic survival. Europe isn't the west, it's just Europe. The sooner we go back to that the sooner all this crap won't be a problem. Even if we are a bit poorer and more nationalistic. Will Europe and USA decline in a major way? Sure, but that's natural. It doesn't mean Europe will become islamic FFS, it just means it will probably become a more harsh and 'hardcore’ place to live-like Russia, because that survival instinct will kick in and a lot of non white people could end up being massacred. In other words-after all this artificial socialist shit-it's going back to it's roots. Stefan Molyneux was saying that white people are really nice-until they are not. I agree with him, that there is a sort of violent impulse meter specifically within the European culture. The cycle goes: We are barbarians, then we become prosperous and become Greeks, then the age of bread and circuses and petty infighting between nations (Napoleonic wars). Then, large scale outside threat kicks us into unified crusading/spartan like tortoise formation occurs and untenable brutality in the form of ruthless, Germanic logic occurs against the aggressors on a mass scale. Then Europe goes back into the void a bit (dark ages) and blooms anew as something other than it was before. Not bad, or worse, just different. Europe has always evolved. Its what made it great. I think now we find ourselves being tested again (this time by feminisms ultimate shit test of invading migrants), but if you look at the wars between christianity and islam this is nothing new. It's just coming to a head now after 2000 years. If you think about it islam is weaker now than it has ever been, 500 years ago it was a behemoth. People forget that, it's not like islam has ever changed, it hasn't got more extreme after a calming down period, it just got ignored more after Christianity decimated it's imperialist ambitions, now it's trying it another way through soft invasion. Islam itself is now very weak, look at how easily ISIS was divided by Putin's bombs. It's just now they've come to the forefront of the media again because of these wars we have stupidly involved ourselves in over the years, and our societies pathological empathy issues and self hatred making them seem stronger than they actually are. I guess what i’m saying is, this idea that we will roll over and die considering our history as winners-won’t happen. It never has. Once a winner, always a winner. There is something inside humans, especially societies that were the fear, not victims of it, never really get weak. They just a get a bit soft. Then the backlash comes. It’s like people talking about the birth rate falling below replacement. A phrase that gets bandied around a lot, but what the fuck does it actually mean? It’s natural for birth rates to fall in times of prosperity but again it’s all part of the regeneration cycle of empires. When have they ever actually fallen to the point a people go extinct naturally? Never, especially when they have dominated the world for years. Birth rates are falling everywhere, not just in white countries. Anyway, i think that this PC mangina culture is an aberration, because it goes against everything that humans are by nature. That’s why it’s unsustainable. In times of great prosperity people get soft, but they will always go back to brutality, because it’s our default mode, called survival. It’s programmed in us. White people may look a bit weak now, but that’s just temporary, it always is. We may become a bit less prominent economically or politically, but that’s natures way of bringing people back down to earth, and allowing for regeneration period into something new. If we actually let the muslims invade, that wouldn’t happen because our race would cease to exist, and basically all other cultures could be fair game to be absorbed, even mighty China. When people feel sufficiently threatened, even if they are pussies, their survival gene kicks in and there is a gargantuan backlash. So i don't think Eurabia will actually occur, but it will if we all say 'fuck it' and leave, but that goes against mother nature's design of humans and the strongest overcoming the weak. Europe will always be stronger than ME, it's just right now we are not because of our governments and social programming, but as we see the backlash is already happening. Referring to my prior point, when white people feel threatened, they turn from individual nation mode to Europe as one nation mode. When that modes on, it means your fucking dead. It means your entire country or continent will be irradiated and charred into ash. There’s no appeasing angry saxons, no matter how weak they seem now, it’s just an aberration of the current trend, but it can never suppress our true nature. See "The Wrath of the Awakened Saxon' by Rudyard Kipling. It’s not even a continent really, it’s almost like one big country with a lot of little areas with different cultures and languages contained in them. They are autonomous when it suits them, but they are European when they’re threatened. Ie, the Greeks against Persia, the Hussars against the Ottomans, the Crusades. Or even the Nazi collaborators or the USSR. People forget how dangerous white people really are, i cannot think of anywhere else where people just automatically put aside their superficial differences and join together as one fighting machine to absolutely wipe out a threat on that scale, it is probably why Europe ruled the world. We shouldn’t underestimate this powerful and unique trait of a continent that really only exists in Europe. Islam is only like that because they forced people to become islamic, but otherwise nothing holds together their cultures, as seen by their continuous infighting that we have transcended from. Even when that occurs in Europe as is now, when a great external threat comes that is all put aside to deal with the problem without a second thought.
Caleb Jones 2016-04-11 10:21:37
Fearghas, please do not cross-post giant comments across my blogs. Anyway, your basic point is that "it's inevitable, but we need to fight for it anyway." That makes no sense obviously. Your only option for "fighting" is secession, which I already addressed. Though you'd be better off (and have much higher odds of success) working on your own life than trying to get your nation or province to secede. I already pointed out in the article that in many scenarios there's an evolution rather than a crash, so I agree with you there. The question is whether or not the evolution a positive one that we would want if it wasn't forced upon us. And you're forgetting about the issue of degree. Yeah, if Muslims take over Europe and get nuclear weapons, they might nuke a place like the US or China. But would they nuke Uruguay? Nope. That's my point. If your only response is that Uruguay would be negatively affected if China was nuked by a Muslim Europe, then of course it would, but I promise I would be MUCH happier living in Uruguay than if I lived in China or Muslim Europe under that scenario. Again, we're talking about degrees of bad here, not good vs. bad; that ship has already sailed.
Fearghas Fischer 2016-04-11 12:53:44
Apologies for the cross messaging. I'm not disagreeing with you on anything you wrote, i just wanted to get elaborate. Let me explain another way. What i was meaning to illustrate was letting the current system die, which i agree with you on, is obvious, and you can only improve your own life until you're in a better position (if your aims are political in nature, and hey, if they are more power to you). However when people automatically assume that Europe is nothing without the concept of the western hemisphere political system, and without it will die (ie be taken over by islam) so therefore we assume that nothing other than eurabia will be a result of its inevitable destruction, is ridiculous thinking. Which of course you have illustrated in the outlined different scenarios. None of them said: "I think Europe and the USA will become caliphates". I think they will collapse in the current system, but that's because our current system is awful and has brought this muslim problem to the forefront again through meddling. If it had been left the way it was since Europe destroyed it militaristically (which its never recovered from several hundred years later) then all this migrant crap wouldn't be an issue. Ok sure, but you haven't really disproved what i'm saying. I never said that you wouldn't be safe in Uruguay, i wasn't talking about you personally. My point is, if our complacency after the the west has inevitably collapsed allows islam to get a foothold over Europe and Asia, no one would be safe, They wouldn't give a shit if Uruguay or Brazil haven't wronged them. That's not what it's about, it's about them being ripe for islamification. If it happens in Europe, China etc, it can happen anywhere, Ideology knows no borders. These people don't really operate on logic. Regardless, the west will collapse, which is probably a good thing, it's what comes out of it after that's crucial. So again, i am accepting degrees of bad, i'm just saying just because the west collapses, doesn't mean our continent has to burn outright, It just evolves naturally into something else, which has happened so far in history, but islam would mean it would cease to be, although it's not the first time we faced an existential threat to our general survival but we always overcame it even though our previous system of living collapsed, the fact that threat came to our door was a reflection of what was wrong with our system, so it was the sacrificial lamb to go on surviving in an evolved guise. that's part of the deal if you want to survive. In layman's terms: "Listen mate, your culture has become corrupt, arrogant and decedent, so as a result of that weakness there are bad people coming to invade you because they see this vulnerability. If you fight back, which you will, because you've come this far and succeeded, which proves you're a strong tribe, which mother nature rewards, you will have to sacrifice this culture which has become corrosive and evolve into something else, if you want to continue being strong...because nothing is for free in this world". Everything has it's time, it fades, it evolves through that transitional growing period and has a resurgence as something like it was but simultaneously different, Rome vs The Renaissance. If Islam isn't curbed, as it is a parasite, it will infect and destroy that natural order of of disappearance and resurgence of cultures, whether it be European based or Oriental based. Also, i don't know if has been proven but i think if one nuclear missile is fired it automatically will affect the rest of the world, as it would completely fuck up our whole eco system so you would notice considerable changes in Latin America even if it's a delayed reaction due to distance, (I could be wrong but i there must be a reason people are so reluctant to use nuclear weapons, especially on a mass scale) these things tend have a domino effect. One nuke launches, a few more do. Why just stop at one? You've already crossed the Rubicon. Of course it's blatant i'm not endorsing a championing of white knighting the west, because that would be going against nature of societies and empires. Things get decedent, then they fade, get a bit bollocks, then come back in a new way, always have done, always will do. It's Almost like fighting your biology in way, you will always lose. Accept it and let it happen, but it's how we deal with the fallout (ie potential war or foreign diaspora invasion) which is what will determine our future as a people. I don't believe that type of scenario will happen because it seems unlikely if you look at our past as conquerors, we defined the mantra of survival of the fittest, so that's thousands of years of selective breeding with that goal of preservation, it's built into us. That depth of survival is genetically encoded within us, than say other people's that have long died out, so it seems genetically unlikely we will just die off or be invaded to that degree, because that reactionary backlash is an automated survival response embedded within us based on thousands of years of selective breeding of strong genes weeding out the weak, as females would really only mate the most brutal in society at that time. Of course all humans have the survival gene, but some have it stronger than others. All the cultures that died out did so millennia ago, the ones we see left standing currently are the fittest ones in their class, so we are included in that spectrum, but some are fitter than others, evidenced in the fact we destroyed the middle east as a political and militaristic power about 500 years ago (or about 200 if you include the Turks-who then came to us to help their industrialisation process under Ataturk). At the end of the day, the actual fall of the current system is required, it needs to be revitalised and gain new perspective, because it's become poisonous, which is a sign it's time has come to fade. Your blogs are great, i just recently got into them. Some really good perspectives on lifestyle. I like the simple lay out, straight to the point, no fluff.
Caleb Jones 2016-04-11 13:38:04
My point is, if our complacency after the the west has inevitably collapsed allows islam to get a foothold over Europe and Asia, no one would be safeAnd you're wrong. Islam does not threaten the entire planet Earth and never will. It's way too backward for that.
Also, i don’t know if has been proven but i think if one nuclear missile is fired it automatically will affect the rest of the world, as it would completely fuck up our whole eco system so you would notice considerable changes in Latin America even if it’s a delayed reaction due to distanceNope. One nuclear explosion going off in France, even two or three, isn't going to affect the health of people in Uruguay in any noticeable way. There might be some economic ramifications, sure, but those are temporary. 100 such explosions all over the world might, but I don't predict this, as I clearly said in the above article. I think your fear is that if you don't "fight back," the Muslims will take over Europe and then nuke the entire planet. I don't share this fear.
Fearghas Fischer 2016-04-12 07:56:06
My so called fear is just considering a potential outcome, who knows what will happen. I bloody hope it isn't. I agree, it is too backward but i hate the fact that a lot of people think this is going to be the case. This idiotic complacency attached to the welfare state based west has people in a black and white thinking mode. They are so attached to the concept of Europe=West, via solipsism suggesting nothing else has existed prior, that without this Western ideology Europe or America will cease to be, or be worse off if they do. There is nothing to support this. The west as it is now is just a political aberration, regressive liberalism and feminism do not last, and things will regress back to what these systems have tried to repress. That's why it has poisoned everything it's touched in the past few years and why we are seeing these cracks now, because it's inherently flawed. E.G. America espoused the idea of west, the idea of the west didn't espouse America, nations and ideas are two different things. It's n different form being an islamophobe, how can one be phobic to a set of ideas? Regarding The nuclear weapons quite possibly...hopefully. However, do have you got any other evidence other than "I'm wrong". The reality is neither of us know what would happen, do you really want to risk finding out? Who cares what would happen, one being launched is one too many to risk finding out.
Sean 2016-07-29 20:15:12
Hi Caleb, I found your blog through your other excellent blog on the Alpha Male 2.0. Ever since, I must say I am hooked and have been absorbing all the information like soaking up gravy with a hunk of bread. Unfortunately, I am far less succesful than you and made some terrible decisions in my life. Thankfully, the red pill is slowly dissolving on the tip of my tongue and am making steps to improve my life. Grown up and raised in the Netherlands, one of the bastions of political correctness, I have been watching all this shit with both frustration and amusement. I think you have to take in consideration that with the islam (wahibism) that is the main threat to the West and freedom in general is more of a political issue than a religious one. Yes, it needs no explanation that the death cult ideology is utterly disturbing but there are plenty of belief systems that are absolutely bollocks but also are not a serious threat at all (Westboro Baptist Church comes to mind). However, it is a threat that, in my opinion, is permitted by the U.S. and European governments on purpose. Does this make threat of the radical islam less problematic? No, as supporting rebels in varous proxy wars in the past has shown that sooner or later the freedom fighters end up the terrorists. So, why are we so protective and allow a culture to thrive and grow that is completely against our values of life and would turn it around the moment they reach critical mass? Because right now, it is profitable. No, it is not profitable for me, you and most people that live in the West. It is however greatly profitable for the large corporations. If you want to understand why something is done on political level, the answer is: "Follow the money". A large majority of the mosques with radicalized imams that preach hatred against the West and the values are backed by investors from Saudi-Arabia. Why is Saudi-Arabia funding mosques in Europe (they offered to construct 200 new mosques in Germany, but refused to take in any migrants)? One could argue that they want to spread their belief, wahabism, which they uphold to be superior. A more logical answer is a safety net. When the OPEC crisis broke out in the 70's, Western governments realized how very dependent their culture was on oil. Addicted to the black gold and the fact that the global financial system is based on exponantial growth means that we needed a constant influx of oil for low prices. Yes, we can get oil from other countries such as Norway (very expensive) or Venezuela (very politically unstable). Why bother if you can strike a deal with the largest oil producer in the world? It is likely also why a revolution was staged Iran, which at that point was a civilized nation with relatively decent human rights compared to the dump it has turned into now. Obviously, in order to continue to purchase oil for prices that would not threaten the economic growth in the West, there had to be a condition. This is where the "Oil for Immigration" / "The treaty of Strasbourg" comes in. I cannot state for a fact that this is true, and the hypothesis is a well-known conspiracy theory, but if you lay down the facts and the behaviour of governments, the hypothesis makes a lot of sense. Criticism on the islamic faith and Saudi-Arabia in Europe is met with a lot of flak and anger. Yes, obviously, racist rants etc. should not be allowed. However, one needs to have some brass balls to negatively or critically speak about these subjects in public in West-Europe. Columnist Theo van Gogh was slaughtered, woman rights activist Ayaan Hirshi Ali had to hide and was subject of defamation in regards to her legal status, controversial politician Geert Wilders has a 24/7 security detail. I firmly believe that the SJW's, left-wing politicians and activists are simply useful idiots to achieve the goal of reducing criticism by framing criticism as bigotry and critics as nazi-sympathisants. I would not even classify it as an issue caused by socialists. While socialism is a left-wing, collectivism ideology, not all socialists are necessarily pro-migrant or pro-Islam. The socialist parties in Central-Europe and Eastern Europe hold anti-migrant views. In the 80's, the Dutch Socialist Party (SP) voiced its concern over non-Western immigration to the Netherlands. I absolutely agree that Europe is going to reach a boiling point and it is sad to see that this situation, which I predicted ten years ago and was met with hatred and anger ("Just admit that you are a racist!"), is slowly unfolding. My main fear always was that Europe will turn into a large-scale Yugoslavia with a massive culture clash and we certainly may seen it happen. Does this mean that there is no solution other than a bloody civil war or Europe turning into a caliphate? Not necessarily. Big corporations care about profit. I do not see how they profit from running Europe completely in the ground. Europe does not have a lot of natural resources, so an islamic Europe would simply be a 3rd world shithole with no economy. The European consumer market is still important, despite other markets emerging. Furthermore, to sustain an army, you need money. The radical islam in Europe is funded by Saudi-Arabia, which economy is almost entirely based on oil revenue. Instead of exploring other potential sources of revenue, like United Arab Emirates is currently doing, Saudi-Arabia has arrogantly put all their eggs in the basket. Currently, for big corporations and governments, it is a win-win situation. We acquire oil to keep our economies running, in return, we open our borders. The revenue from the oil is spent on the spread of wahabism (in the form of construction of mosques etc.) and luxury goods (cars, hookers, etc.). This means a large percentage of the money flows back into our pockets. That is why we are seeing travesties as Saudi-Arabia as in the UN council as head of Human Rights. Yes, the common worker bee in Europe does not profit from this and is left with the mess it creates (the babyboom generation profitted the most and are placing the debt on the next generation; sadly, most millenials are buying the bullshit). But since when has corporatism ever cared about the common people? All of this also means that the answer does not have to involve a cataclysmic event at all. We simply need to be less dependent on oil. My country, the Netherlands, is put in a position when it comes to this. One of our most prolific multinationals is Shell and our royal family is the largest stockholder. It comes to no surprise that they are best buddies with many Middle-Eastern leaders. The thing is, is that one can't stop technological improvements forever. Tesla is doing a terrific job building electric cars. The first testflight of a solar-powered airplane was succesful. The Netherlands, Germany and Scandinavian countries are pooping out windturbines like mad. There will come a point that our economy does not break or fall with the price of oil. At that point, countries that did not evolve, like Saudi-Arabia will collapse like a flan in a cupboard. Mosques will end up empty and renovated into McDonalds restaurant. At least they improve the looks of our neighborhoods (big fan of Arabic architecture and music - too bad the radicals even want to erase and ban that). The only reason why this is not happening, is because the big wigs don't allow it. Not yet. Besides, the migrant situation is a perfect opportunity to get rid of the royal social security/benefit system and put the blame on the migrants. The extreme-right nationalists and radical muslims can brawl in the streets while the corporations collect the pay check. Win-win.
Antekirtt 2019-01-31 16:21:20
An update on your opinion or a similarly themed article sometime this year or the next would be great. I'll keep reading on this as I'd really like to know for sure if the West will be a very bad place to be in on a 20-30 year horizon.