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The President After Trump
I’ve been saying for years that the problem isn’t Donald Trump, but rather the next president after Trump. I also said back when Obama was president that the USA is approximately two presidents away from a president who is an openly admitted socialist. I stand by that.
-By Caleb Jones
Both sides move further left. As always. In 2010 when Pussy Barack increased government spending by $1.2 trillion, conservatives freaked out and called him a socialist, which he denied. Eight years later, Tantrum Trump increased government spending by $1.8 trillion, $600 billion more than Obama did. No one on the right cared at all. Then, in the most recent Democratic debate, moderators asked for a show of hands for who was in favor of giving taxpayer-funded government health care to illegal aliens. All of them raised their hands.
Both sides move further left. As always. And that is exactly why I’m quite confident we are close to an openly socialist president in the United States. I won’t be living in the United States by then; I’m outta here in early 2021. Therefore, this is mostly academic to me. These days I view the collapse of the USA as more like an interesting TV show like Game of Thrones. If the vast majority of everyone on both sides of the left-right political debate actually believe a $7 trillion-per-year government (that’s state, federal, and local government spending combined) is too small and want it even larger, then that’s wonderful. They’re welcome to their delusions, but I won’t be participating, nor suffering the massive damage it’s going to cause to a lot of people. So, with that said, here some basic rundowns on who the next president may be.
First of all, Tantrum Trump may very well win re-election even though everyone hates him. I already analyzed the data behind that here. I don’t know if that will happen, but it’s looking more likely since, amazingly, it appears the Democrats have learned literally nothing from all the mistakes they made back in 2016 when they A) chose to support the Lizard Queen, the single worst and most unlikeable presidential candidate in my lifetime, and B) focused purely on "Trump is bad!" messaging, which fails badly, rather than a progressive agenda, which today's (socialist) Americans like. Yet, Trump’s possible re-election is irrelevant to my argument. I’m taking about the president after Trump. If that person comes in 2020 or 2024 it doesn’t matter. All I know is that the president after Trump is extremely unlikely to be a Republican.
Who will that person be? I don’t know, but I can comment on the current contenders, most of which will still be contenders in 2024 even if Trump wins re-election. If the Democrats choose Joe Biden, Trump wins re-election, period. Biden is both a pure establishment candidate and ridiculously incompetent, having already run for President twice and failing miserably both times. If that’s who Democratic voters choose in the primaries, you’ll see 2016 all over again, meaning Trump will win, but barely (he may still lose the popular vote again, actually that’s quite likely, but it doesn’t matter). The elites would love Joe Biden, but I don’t think that’s in the cards. I actually think the elites prefer someone else I’ll get to in a minute.
If the elites can’t get Joe Biden, then they’ll go with their obvious second choice: Kamala Harris. Harris is essentially a more likeable and politically savvy version Hillary Clinton. She’s smart, skilled, a warmonger, a corporatist, a team player, and a liar… everything the elites love, so she has their full backing. In addition, she’s just charismatic enough to convince enough minorities and women to vote for her. Harris is a distinct possibility as our next president in 2020, 2024, or even beyond. If she becomes prez, this will actually blow my theory since she is not a socialist but rather a big government corporatist like her Lizard Queen mother. Not that it matters, since as I said when Trump was elected, government will continue to grow with or without Trump. (Right now, it’s growing with him.)
I happen to think that way down the road, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and/or (though less likely) Chelsea Clinton will become president once they’re older. AOC is quickly becoming the left-wing version of Tantrum Trump; an exciting yet woefully stupid showman that really gets irrational people excited. Moreover, she checks all the left-wing boxes. She’s attractive, young, female, Hispanic, and has a hyphenated last name. It’s like a bunch of left-wingers created her in lab as the ideal leftist. She’s the future in our new America. I’d almost be surprised if she didn’t at least get close to being president a within a few decades. People tend to overreact to the opposite of what they’ve had for a long time. After the milquetoast president George H.W. Bush, voters chose a highly confident, charismatic (though sociopathic), player president in Bill Clinton. After that, the went to the opposite extreme, and chose a traditional, moronic, bumbling president, George W. Bush. After that, they went the opposite again, in the smooth and articulate left-wing (or someone who pretended to be left-wing) Barack Obama. Then they went to the diametric opposite again, the simpleton bulldozer and far-right (or someone who’s pretending to be far-right) Donald Trump.
If the pattern holds, and I think it will, the next president after Trump will be one of two creatures: A pretend left-wing corporatist monster and Lizard Queen heir like Kamala Harris. A true-blue progressive socialist or quasi-socialist like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, or someone who strongly holds to these kinds of policies like Andrew Yang. I can’t see the next president being anything else other than one of those two. To be fair and objective, as I’ve talked about in the past, American voters have become so irrational over the past 10-15 years that it’s now becoming very difficult to predict this stuff, whereas pre-Obama it was very easy to predict who the next president was going to be with great accuracy. I accurately predicted every presidential election in my lifetime, even sometimes as long as 2.5 years before the election, until the Obama/Romney election of 2012, when Americans actually re-elected a sitting president in the middle of a bad economy, something that had literally never happened before. (Though to be fair to me, Romney only lost by a fraction of one percent in three states.)
This is why I’ve stopped predicting specific individuals for president; Americans are too insane now so it’s just not doable anymore. Instead I’m sticking to the types of people I think are going to be elected as well as laying odds on certain people as the election gets closer.
And hey, I could be wrong on even this. Maybe the next president after Trump is yet another corporatist nationalist like Trump. I think that’s very unlikely, but as America and the rest of the West draws closer to collapse, anything is possible. The only thing that’s guaranteed is that, like Trump, the next president will continue to increase the size and spending of government. You can set your watch to that.
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American 2019-07-19 18:56:01
Spot on. There is no way that a "normal" person is ever getting elected again. I suspect that Facebook, Google and Twitter will suppress the right so much that a republican will not be elected president for at least 3 election cycles after Trump is out.
joelsuf 2019-07-19 19:47:15
I suspect that Facebook, Google and Twitter will suppress the right so much that a republican will not be elected president for at least 3 election cycles after Trump is out.And if they do, they'll act almost exactly like Kim Jong il. By the 2040s, the US will be pretty much EXACTLY like North Korea. But like Caleb, I intend to move out of the US in the 2020s. 2022 is my target date, 2027 at the latest. I'm not gonna stick around to see the US become the USSR and then become North Korea. I'm g00d on that lol.
joelsuf 2019-07-19 19:51:32
Also, pretty much all Trump needs to do is somewhat welcome anything that the common lefty likes (such as legalizing marijuana) and he'll win in 2020 by a landslide. I expect he'll try to do something like that early next year or something which will win over the common leftists. Then someone like AOC will be elected in 2028 which will turn the US into the USSR. Then in 2036 or something, the US will have it's very first president under 40 and that's when the US will turn into North Korea. It'll be pretty entertaining. I feel bad for anybody who thinks the US will actually be a decent place to live going into the 2020s and especially the 2030s.
Stephen 2019-07-19 20:16:38
Trump will win a landslide in 2020. I agree he will probably come out for legalizing pot, or maybe supporting some sort of universal health care. It's easy to promise things like that, because they all know they never have to do anything. Because of california, he will probably win almost every other state but lose the popular vote. That will make the left go insane all over again. Good entertainment for us. I admire those of you planning to leave. If I were under 30 I would do that. But I can live on my investment income and I have no desire to work again. My tax burden is low. I even get subsidized health insurance because the morons think you are poor if your income is low. Under an even more socialized system they'd probably throw more free stuff my way even though I have no need for it.
Fanguy 2019-07-19 20:24:00
Caleb was right about Trump. When trump was elected, government spending ACTUALLY went up and the debt is STILL growing. I came to the West and expect some free speech&market but instead a bunch of communists.
Caleb Jones 2019-07-19 20:41:47
I suspect that Facebook, Google and Twitter will suppress the right so much that a republican will not be elected president for at least 3 election cycles after Trump is out.Actually, there is another possibility, one that Stephen above already described: Republicans keep winning elections by shifting massively left. This would create an America dominated by two socially left, big-government parties. This is entirely possible. Republicans could indeed keep winning elections... they just won't be actual Republicans anymore. Trump could be the first in a long line of popular, left-wing, pro-pot, pro-gay-marriage, pro-welfare state Republicans. Hilarious. Enjoy the decline!
Jared 2019-07-19 21:35:28
I wouldn't keep calling American voters "stupid". It's mainstream fact that voters don't choose the president anyway- the electoral college does. And it's questionable if the public votes are even reported accurately. Though, it is stupid how most Americans still think that we choose the president; or, that who's in office, whether left or right, has any significant change on how government is operating. I commend you on pointing this out, and I also agree that the sequence of presidents for the last few decades (or maybe always) tends to swing in opposites. Also, it's fair to criticize Americans for the extremely confused definitions of their declared political stances. But what does it matter, really, since the public doesn't have power anyway? I think on some level, Americans realize that the only purpose the president really serves is to be the "mascot" of our country, and this is what they fight about more than anything. The arguments they make as cannon fodder are almost completely irrelevant. Anyway, I wanted to say... I wonder if there is an emotional component to your leaving of the US. On one hand, I'm sure that it's best for taxes, and especially for online businessmen like yourself. But I often sense such resentment against your fellow Americans, that you're almost doing it out of spite. Personally- well, I don't know all the facts, but I don't think that the West will collapse. I wonder if this is partially wishful thinking on your part, wanting to see punishment for their stupidity. The reason I think the West won't collapse (well, USA in particular) is because it is still just far, far too profitable. It still has the reputation of being the best country in the world (I think, thanks to our legacy of great movies and music, tho this is fading); and because of this, swarms of immigrants are still trying to get in, and will work their asses off to do it. This is where the "profit" comes from, as I mentioned. So to allow some major disaster to happen to the US would damage these profits, and there are many, many elites who wouldn't want this to happen. Well, there's more I could say, but I'd just suggest that you be careful of letting emotions influence your views of what's occurring in the world. I think you'd agree that it is always wise to seek reality, in as much as we can.
Asian D 2019-07-19 21:57:12
"This is entirely possible. Republicans could indeed keep winning elections… they just won’t be actual Republicans anymore." Eh. Republicans haven't been true conservatives for decades now. For the past few decades, they've been the evangelical-and-bigotry party. Trump just brought the bigotry out in to the open. Republicans have _never_ decreased the size of the government. They've only talked loudly about shrinking government when they were out of power (and could do nothing about it) yet somehow have conned large numbers of the American public in to thinking that they are the small-government party. Actually, the GOP has been able to gain power in recent decades only by playing cons (so quite apropos that their base fell hard for Con Man Supreme Trump; Democrats campaign as some sort of social and economic liberal then govern as some sort of social and economic liberal if they win; Republicans, when they gain power, are completely different from how they campaign). Remember that Dubya ran in 2000 as a "compassionate conservative", then launched several massive expensive years-long wars in the Middle East after he gained power (one against a country that had nothing to do with al-Qaeda and had no ability to threaten the US). Trump ran as an economic moderate then promptly passed an unfunded tax cut for the rich. The only consistency the GOP has shown is that Trump campaigned as a bigot and has governed like one.
Asian D 2019-07-19 22:02:04
Oh, and while I also see a ton of opportunities and growth in Asia, I also agree with Jared that the US won't collapse. In fact, the 2030's will be the start of another golden age. Though the US would have to get through the 2020's first, and that decade will be fucked up. I'm seriously considering sitting that decade out in another country.
Caleb Jones 2019-07-19 23:29:39
I wouldn’t keep calling American voters “stupid”.I would. Though I tend to call them insane and irrational instead, since that's more accurate.
It’s mainstream fact that voters don’t choose the president anyway- the electoral college does.And if the electoral college was ignored in 2016, Hillary Clinton would be our president. And I'd be calling voters stupid / insane yet again.
I wonder if there is an emotional component to your leaving of the US.There is, as I clearly said in the comments in the prior article on this very blog, though it's not the primary driving factor.
But I often sense such resentment against your fellow Americans,Sure, a little.
that you’re almost doing it out of spite.Incorrect. I'm not leaving because I hate Americans (I don't; I love them) or because I think me leaving will make Americans mad (they won't care). I'm leaving because it's what is best for me.
Personally- well, I don’t know all the facts, but I don’t think that the West will collapse.Exactly - you don't think the West will collapse because you don't know all the facts. Do the research fully, then come back to me and tell me you think the West will be fine going forward.
The reason I think the West won’t collapse (well, USA in particular) is because it is still just far, far too profitable. It still has the reputation of being the best country in the worldJust like the Han Dynasty. Just like the Roman Empire. Just like the British Empire. Just like...
and because of this, swarms of immigrants are still trying to get in, and will work their asses off to do it.Incorrect. Immigration to the USA has gone down, not up. And the children of these immigrants go on welfare.
Well, there’s more I could say, but I’d just suggest that you be careful of letting emotions influence your views of what’s occurring in the world. I think you’d agree that it is always wise to seek reality, in as much as we can.With all due respect, have you read anything I've ever written before? You're essentially re-stating my core message to all of my readers. If you seriously think I'm leaving the country because I'm angry then you either haven't read very much of my content or you have seriously mis-read it.
Republicans haven’t been true conservatives for decades now.I know and I've said that perhaps 200 times, but they've at least pretended to be against things like abortion, gay marriage, legalized drugs, and so on. I'm saying they could drop that last vestige and go full, 100% left. And it would indeed help them win elections. Frankly, it's the only thing that would "save" the Republicans (with the exception of another fake war-scare).
I also agree with Jared that the US won’t collapse. In fact, the 2030’s will be the start of another golden age.Your hard data to support this hypothesis?
tim 2019-07-20 02:59:44
Caleb: can you please summarize or point out few major reasons why West would collapse? yes, a financial crisis can occur and may even lead to a depression not seen before but all world is too connected. it may be felt even worse in other countries and emerging markets. US still has the best universities, most powerful military, best educated people, and relatively speaking best political system in the world in my opinion. yes most Americans are really don't know much about the world, so conditioned, etc etc but small well educated and wealthy elite still is able to run it quite well despite stupid presidents. i'm not able to see the collapse any time soon despite many things go wrong.
Investor 2019-07-20 03:33:19
can you please summarize or point out few major reasons why West would collapse? yes, a financial crisis can occur and may even lead to a depression not seen before but all world is too connected. it may be felt even worse in other countries and emerging markets. US still has the best universities, most powerful military, best educated people, and relatively speaking best political system in the world in my opinion. yes most Americans are really don’t know much about the world, so conditioned, etc etc but small well educated and wealthy elite still is able to run it quite well despite stupid presidents. i’m not able to see the collapse any time soon despite many things go wrong.
Jared 2019-07-20 06:39:21
Ah, thanks for the response, Caleb. Well, just so you know, the position I'm coming from is that I'm a huge conspiracy theorist. I've seen enough to think that politics is just a big puppet show- meaning, none of it is real. It's just there to give citizens (of every country) the illusion that they have some say in their governance at all. So, it seems silly to take any of it seriously. For the purpose of writing attractive blog articles, taking it seriously is great. I was thinking, you could be a great writer for some high-profile magazine or newspaper (that is, if any of them were bold enough to allow even this much truth). But as for what we personally believe... well, you know my position now. It's very interesting to hear about highly developed cities like Singapore or Panama City or Hong Kong, and the technologically superior infrastructure of China; but this, to me, does not necessarily mean that these countries are about to overtake the US. Frankly, I think the whole world is owned by American/British elites (including Canada), and different countries simply have different roles, based on what is most profitable/productive to them. For example- perhaps they chose to build the superior infrastructure in China, simply because if they had built it in the US, citizens would be asking too many questions about how much money and technology the government really has. Or perhaps the car/oil market in America is far too profitable to harm. In either case, it didn't fit their agenda for the US, so they used China as their testing ground. And I think something similar about these highly developed cities you've visited. Anyway, if you believe the facts and figures in the media (phony debt, etc), it might seem that the US is doing poorly; but in reality, I think the US still has some of the best living standards in the world (including the massive amount of welfare they give out), and that it's still too attractive and culturally significant for them to seriously harm. Just some food for thought.
Pseudonymous User 2019-07-20 08:53:27
I wouldn’t keep calling American voters “stupid”.Of course voters all around the world are stupid by just about any definition. Voting itself is a stupid act as it wastes some time and gives you absolutely nothing in return. Of particular importance is the fact that voters elect politicians they like, as opposed to competent ones. Politicians know that perfectly well. Parties choose charismatic candidates, not smart ones, and in general, actually knowing how to run a country isn't rewarded at all.
August 2019-07-20 09:49:18
I have done the research and the west is declining now. But I see it in a way that is not mentioned much. The values of each individual American. Isolationism and me -before-you thinking have become part of the binary norm. Not to mention people don't talk to one another face to face. Many female friends have told me about the men they try to date that don't know anything about women and don't know how to talk to people. Dating now is everything but what is should be. Fun. I've been traveling like Caleb and I can tell you the U.S. is the richest country in the world and has problems unique unto itself. Addiction is a huge problem. We are an obese country. I see much happier people in Mexico which is five times as poor. This is because they value family and have a supportive social circle. In the U.S. we value individualism so we have a bunch of lonely people who try to fill the void with addiction (that includes video games and sex) or mostly consumerism. It's failing fantastically. Corporations are benefitting while individuals citizens and consumers grumble but are essentially impotent to make any changes. Social media has done us a huge disservice and given radical, unreasonable, and totally crazy people a voice. Even though some of these people propose things that could easily be fact-checked they still have millions of followers. Anita Sarkeesian comes to mind. The generation that grew up with internet seems the most influenced by this. That's people generally under thirty-five. Misguided. What I'm getting at is this if-you-approve-of-Trump-I-hate-you thinking is binary and sets every individual against the other. So we have isolation setting us apart. People don't talk to people. People hate you just by virtue of your presence. Here's a social experiment. Go out in public with a red MAGA hat and see what happens. If you live anywhere but rural Virginia (and parts of the south) you may get threats of violence. At the very least you'll get disapproving looks. I'm not supporting Trump. I'm saying look how divided we've become. Try this in San Francisco and you will most certainly suffer a wrath by your feminists and liberals. Divorce rate is high. And people who are married are cynical or unhappy and trying to fill the void with—you guessed it—addiction. This whole blog is about how to make it better and not fall into those traps. But is unhappiness our natural state. No. I think it is the times and its a very subtle shift in things that most people don't realize. Then you see a blog like this that mirrors all your thoughts since about 2012 and you say "Hey, I'm not the only one." People will respond that is was better in times gone by but Charles Dickens said it best. "It was the best of times. It was the worst of times." And right now is no different. Now, you have to navigate through more bull shit and complexities than ever before. This is the price of western civilization. Men are not initiated sexually. And now you have a lot of problems that stems from the male-female (yin-yang) dynamic being off balance. That being said I am here (for the time being) because the U.S. still offers opportunity for business that is difficult or non-existent in other countries. You want to be paid in U.S. dollars. But as Caleb pointed out taxes are increasing and our freedoms are decreasing. So I am also making the transition. Not to say there aren't good people here or you couldn't find a date. It's just a lot harder. The U.S. will decline regardless who is president but it will decline socially, economically and politically. I'd like to hear why Caleb thinks 2030 will be a golden age...
Eric C Smith 2019-07-20 11:30:55
How much and in what ways would you say the next president hinder or get in the way of converting to the 2.0 lifestyle? and what would be some of the last warning signals like..."oh shit im prepared to leave, that was the sign, X happened, where's my passport, see yah USA." I'm in get out asap mode right now...while figuring out being outcome independent in practice.
Investor 2019-07-20 13:50:45
Of course voters all around the world are stupid by just about any definition. Voting itself is a stupid act as it wastes some time and gives you absolutely nothing in return. Of particular importance is the fact that voters elect politicians they like, as opposed to competent ones. Politicians know that perfectly well. Parties choose charismatic candidates, not smart ones, and in general, actually knowing how to run a country isn’t rewarded at all.Well I don't know if its a real quote but it is attributed to Winston Churchill: "The best argument against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter."
You want to be paid in U.S. dollars.Some very good points, but no, I would rather get paind in Swiss Francs or Euros or Yen. Euro might stop existing or crash but Swiss Franc and Yen will do better than either Euro or dollar. Either way I can just exchange. Dollar's history is so pathetic I can't see why anyone would still hold on to it, just check the inflation rate.
How much and in what ways would you say the next president would hinder or get in the way of converting to the 2.0 lifestyle? and what would be some of the last warning signals like…”oh shit im prepared to leave, that was the sign, X happened, where’s my passport, see yah USA.”…? I’m in get out asap mode right now…while figuring out being outcome independent in practice.The biggest realistic risk which most people don't realize exists and those who don't dont understand properly is that you may not be allowed to leave. If you live in a country of your citizenship and don't have any other citizenship all they have to do is revoke your passport for whatever reason or deny a renewal request (or delay indefinitely...) and you can't leave legally. That may not be a big deal for an average person who doesn't travel much and lives in a big country that has it all but what if you are stuck in a country which is collapsing (civil wars, unrest, economic collapse, etc)? Fortunately it is relatively easy to overcome this even for an average person - you don't even need second nationality, just live in a different country than your own. Could become troublesome if they revoke your passport but that is unlikely if you don't live there. Getting second nationality guards against that eventuality too.
Caleb Jones 2019-07-20 16:22:05
can you please summarize or point out few major reasons why West would collapse?- Massive, unprecedented government debt - Massive, unprecedented consumer debt - Over-bloated empire - Worthless fiat currency - A government that makes everything worse every year or so - Voters (on both sides) who have become utterly irrational and have completely lost the ability to solve important problems - The rise of the East, namely SE Asia, India and highly motivated, intelligent, strategic-thinking China.
I was thinking, you could be a great writer for some high-profile magazine or newspaperThank you. I agree and I considered it once a long time ago, but I would A) make much less money and B) not be able to say whatever I wanted.
Of course voters all around the world are stupid by just about any definition. Voting itself is a stupid act as it wastes some time and gives you absolutely nothing in return.Correct.
I’ve been traveling like Caleb and I can tell you the U.S. is the richest country in the world and has problems unique unto itself. Addiction is a huge problem. We are an obese country. I see much happier people in Mexico which is five times as poor.I agree and have experienced the same.
I’d like to hear why Caleb thinks 2030 will be a golden age…When did I say that? I think you're mixing me up with one of the commenters above.
How much and in what ways would you say the next president hinder or get in the way of converting to the 2.0 lifestyle?The next president will make a it little harder. Just a little. Creating an Alpha 2.0 lifestyle will be made a little harder in the West every few years. Better to get started now.
David 2019-07-20 17:47:27
Good article. I appreciate your nonbiased approach, even though im rooting for Trump a little bit. Maybe I sadistically enjoy watching the cultural marxists, feminists, newstations and special interest groups melt down over his antics! First point: you’re all right about conservatives being sellouts to big government. I personally blame boomers for voting on social issues while ignoring fiscal issues and economics. Do you think this will improve when they die off? Also The social security entitlement expense will go down quite a bit when theyre dead, lowering gov spending. I see conservatives my age a little more fiscally concerned than boomers, but the leftists my age are full blown commies. Second point: Shale oil discovery might have just ensured the US superpower status for centuries. Obama, hillary and trump all separately agreed that they were so confident in it, we are officially done with the Bretton wood agreement. That means for the last 75 years, our navy, the biggest navy, has been guarding the delivery of oil tankers and cargo ships for the entire world for free... but now we’re done. China, japan, indonesia, korea, and vietnam all rely on safe delivery of oil from the persian gulf. Will they play nice without big daddys free security? Theyve hated eachother for millenia. Imagine all the separated supply chains around the world now being endangered of captured vessels and lost energy. Global trade is like a string of christmas lights right now. If one pathway goes out, the rest completely stop. For that reason, we can leverage some ridiculous trade deals and tariffs with no pushback, as we’re seeing with japan and China. Third point: Agreed the US dollar is bullshit compared to the 1964 USD, BUT, technology has added so much horsepower into the application of a dollar, it has still gained in purchasing power in some industries like technology. 75% of americas poor now have air conditioning, cable tv, own a used car, a smart phone, and are overweight. Fourth point: Commenter said something about “low salary doesnt mean low income” so he gets free health care. This is something i always thought about. Ive had 1099 gross income that was high, but written off to show poverty level netprofit, so i qualified for food stamps and obamacare! I didnt do it, but What idiots are working in the government to have loopholes like this? Fourth point: Commenter: “ unfunded tax cut for the rich.“. You must not have read about it enough. It was for anybody who incorporates. I benefitted from this tax cut, although im not rich. Also, corporations create jobs, if you havent seen the unemployment numbers. Milton friedman made a pretty good case that “frequency of trade” was the most important metric for judging economic health, and the best way to ensure that is high employment, lots of people working and spending money. Fifth point: Illegal immigration, different than LEGAL, is certainly much higher this year, so some kind of solution like military or a wall could be viewed as eventual savings on welfare. A militarized border may be necessary in a world without american babysitting like i mentioned above. Sixth point: Also, As a small biz owner, Kamala harris doesnt scare me as much as bernie or warren. So i hope youre right. Great discussion!
Caleb Jones 2019-07-20 18:46:37
Do you think this will improve when they die off?No, because as bad as the Baby Boomers are, Millennials are even worse.
That means for the last 75 years, our navy, the biggest navy, has been guarding the delivery of oil tankers and cargo ships for the entire world for free… but now we’re done.Incorrect. We're not done. Do you see massive American troop/fleet movements moving out of the Persian Gulf areas? Nope. Ignore what politicians say and only watch what they do.
For that reason, we can leverage some ridiculous trade deals and tariffs with no pushback, as we’re seeing with japan and China.This will change when China's new silk road is done, among other things. For now, yes, America still rules the world. I'm not talking about now, which is what many commenters seemed to be confused with. I'm talking about later.
some kind of solution like military or a wall could be viewed as eventual savings on welfareIrrelevant. Trump will never do this. Watch. AGAIN, ignore what politicians say and only watch what they do.
Investor 2019-07-21 03:07:27
It is true that there are some politicians like Bernie Sanders who just tell the people what they want to hear and have no way of achieving it but then there is the fact that wages have not increased for a long time and housing costs especially and also other costs have a lot. Something like that is not workable of course. I see in many places where someone works full time at a job and they earn an amount that is not possible to live from so they receive welfare. Get that - someone works a job full time and needs to receive welfare... that is so ridiculous in so many ways. I see no way to solve this other than doing something really extreme such as: severe regulation of real estate market - for example government sets rental prices to some max amount which is much much lower than current norm - of course that wouldn't work on a limited supply market like housing so it would need to be coupled with another extreme measure such as mass forced deportations of large groups of population. Another option I could think of would be to force companies to set a max ratio between lowest and highest salary in the company including service persons and CEO to for example 5x or something like that and in exchange nullify corporate taxation, but they would probably find ways around it and or it would cause hyper inflation. So realistically I see the only way to "save the working clasess" would be with mass deportations followed by regulated housing market. Mass deportations would also create large gaps in job market making the salaries more competitive.
Investor 2019-07-21 03:10:19
By the way, most of the politicians on your picture look really vile, with maybe a couple of exceptions. They have that "angry evil politician" about them. If these are the realistic future president candidates then USA is already doomed. Another thing I would say is that one thing is to compare to another countries but it's also maybe even more so useful to compare to USA in the past. Look at what kind of presidents and presidential candidates you had in the 50s or 60s, what the lifestyle of average American was back then, what the salaries and prices were etc.
Investor 2019-07-21 03:16:43
Sixth point: Also, As a small biz owner, Kamala harris doesnt scare me as much as bernie or warren. So i hope youre right.The point though about these crazy proposals like Bernie or AOC is that the rich people and companies will just movie offshore. So that means the government will end up with even less money than before. Of course the politician in question knows this but the average voter doesn't and if you tell them they still don't seem to get it (or get irrationally angry and then forget it, lol) so its just a propaganda to get elected.
Nick 2019-07-22 02:42:44
There's a quote going 'round that is attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville but is actually of unknown origins: "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy." Way back the ancient Athenians (most notably Plato himself) have spoken about against democracy as a form of government. The simple fact of the matter is politicians in a democracy are not accountable: not to the public, and sometimes even not to themselves (since they have no children thus no real limb-and-blood stake in the future). You do your thing for 4 years and then you disappear into obscurity or make millions in speaking engagements. This is a fundamental problem and it can't be fixed with more democracy. It will inevitably lead to a dictatorship -- what else?
Caleb Jones 2019-07-22 09:42:22
Get that – someone works a job full time and needs to receive welfare… that is so ridiculous in so many ways.Correct, it is. That's what happens when you spend 100 years voting for Democrats and Republicans who keep inflating the money supply and raising taxes (in real dollars) on the middle class.
I see no way to solve this other than doing something really extreme such as: severe regulation of real estate marketand
Another option I could think of would be to force companies...and
I see the only way to “save the working clasess” would be with mass deportations followed by regulated housing market.Your comment demonstrates precisely why America and the West are doomed. All of your "solutions" are big-government, authoritarian answers guaranteed to eventually make everything worse. When I say Western voters have lost the ability to solve problems, your comment is Exhibit A.
There’s a quote going ’round that is attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville but is actually of unknown origins: “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy.Correct. I've said the same in the past many times. That's why I'm against democracy. Read this and this.
Investor 2019-07-22 11:17:16
Your comment demonstrates precisely why America and the West are doomed. All of your “solutions” are big-government, authoritarian answers guaranteed to eventually make everything worse. When I say Western voters have lost the ability to solve problems, your comment is Exhibit A.It was meant more as a sarcasm. Those "solutions" are so unrealistic and are never gonna happen precisely because the people who want those things to happen wouldn't agree to solve it in such a way. My point was that it cannot be solved before a complete collapse and saying that making the government small is a solution doesn't work because that isn't going to happen either.
Doofus 2019-07-22 17:49:59
If the USA is such a "land of opportunity", then why are my wife and I finding it so much easier to start a pig and chicken farm in the Philippines? Okay, my wife is a filipina, so we do have a bit of an inside advantage there, but still ..... it is WAY TOO DIFFICULT to start a business here in the USA. It's almost as if we think trying to make money is evil!
David 2019-07-22 22:36:10
it is WAY TOO DIFFICULT to start a business here in the USA This is unfortunate. Im hoping if the crazy communists are elected, they will at least grandfather some existing businesses into their laws, instead of seizing all production. I need a working business in the US for now!
Caleb Jones 2019-07-23 08:21:42
it is WAY TOO DIFFICULT to start a business here in the USAYup. Simon Black just posted an article about that here.
Investor 2019-07-23 13:12:24
it is WAY TOO DIFFICULT to start a business here in the USAIts ironic because people still say in other countries how if you wanna start a business its much better to move to the US. The US despite everything still has a lot of trust worldwide, much of which is no longer up to date but it still remains with many people. I guess this helps prolong the crash and decline.
Liquorice 2019-07-24 02:41:55
Yup. Simon Black just posted an article about that here.Thanks for sharing. So far that site looks pretty awesome. Reading this blog and blogs liek that make my day.
Dragonyanggang 2019-08-05 12:14:08
Caleb check out andrew yangs podcast w joe rogan and yangs website which is very very detailed with policies more than all other candidates combined , most politicians are lawyers but this asian dude is a engineer with straight forward thinking I use to thing ubi was crazy but the way he explained it with examples makes it look pretty legit !
Caleb Jones 2019-08-06 11:21:42
Caleb check out andrew yangs podcast w joe rogan and yangs website which is very very detailed with policies more than all other candidates combined , most politicians are lawyers but this asian dude is a engineer with straight forward thinking I use to thing ubi was crazy but the way he explained it with examples makes it look pretty legit !UBI isn't ligit no matter how eloquently it is explained (and I did see Yang on Joe Rogan). Read this and this. I've seen communism very eloquently explained with facts and data. It still doesn't work long-term.
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