The next domino fell on last December 4th, when 59% of Italy voted “no” in their referendum, repudiating their current administration. Three days later, Prime Minister Renzi turned in his resignation. The two big winners in this election were the Northern League and the Five Star Movement, both of which are anti-EU.
Because of all of this, it is now likely that Italy will leave the EU some time next year. This also means they would abandon the Euro currency and return to their own (the lira).
If Italy abandons the Euro, it is very likely the Euro, as a currency, will crumble. This is because Italy, which based on my observations from last visit there is almost a third world country, has a staggering debt-to-GDP ratio of over 130%. $1 trillion of its bonds are actually producing negative yields.
Either the EU will have to bail out Italy by printing even more money, or Italy will go bankrupt. Either way, the EU is screwed, since its largest banks are already teetering on bankruptcy, including Deutsche Bank.
On top of all of that, Germany, France, and the Netherlands are having major elections in 2017, and many anti-EU voters may likely swing the results.
The US is headed for collapse, but at least we have some time in order to get our affairs together and get the hell out before things get really bad. Suicidal Europe is a different story. Europe will collapse well before the US does.
My general advice has been to, if you really feel strongly about freedom and long-term happiness, make plans to move out of the Western world within 5-15 years. However, this 5-15 year figure is really based on the US and Canada. If you live in Europe, I honestly don’t think you have that kind of time. If I were living in Europe right now, I would set moving out of there as one of my active projects right now. I’ve even heard economists and investors say that they don’t understand why any European with assets is still living in Europe. I didn’t think things in Europe were going to be getting this bad this fast. But such is life.
I could be wrong of course. Maybe Europe will be just fine; but I don’t see how that’s possible based on the data. Also, if you have an Alpha Male 2.0 business and financial structure in place, being self-employed with internationalized, location independent income, multiple sources of income, no employees, zero or near-zero debt, and a decent amount of savings that are not denominated in Euros, then you’ll be much better off living in Europe than the typical socialist European who will be sitting around waiting for his Mommy Government to take care of him.
The next few years are going to be very interesting (as in, difficult) for Europe. I hate to see my European brothers go through all this, but this is what you get when you embrace corporatist bankers, an unsustainable welfare state, and mass incoming migration. If the EU or the Euro crumbles in the next few years, it will be one of those times where I wish my predictions were wrong.
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Leo
Posted at 05:41 am, 22nd December 2016Why do you recommend moving out of Europe? Because of Muslim invasion?
Also, what countries do you recommend to move? People from US and Canada are complaining. People from EU are complaining. Where should a young man move?
Thanks for sharing.
P.S. – Every young man should read Alpha Male 2.0 book, it opened my eyes!
Caleb Jones
Posted at 10:36 am, 22nd December 20161. Too much debt.
2. Too much unsustainable socialism and too large a welfare state.
3. Massive Muslim migration
4. Suicidal leaders, focused on destroying their own culture.
5. Massively over-leveraged banks.
https://calebjonesblog.com/moving-out-of-the-country-part-2-where-to-go/
Correct. Those are all in the Western world. The Western world is going down. (You don’t see people in China complaining.)
Thank you, and yes they should! 🙂
Anon.
Posted at 04:29 pm, 22nd December 2016Why are you reading so much into this referendum? It’s very simple:
1. Italy had an outdated and objectively cumbersome form of parliament.
2. They finally got the politicians to agree on a decent replacement and put it to the vote.
3. Then Prime Minister Renzi made a fatal mistake. To show his support and investment in the proposed change, he promised to resign if the vote would be No.
4. So opposition started to criticize the subject just to get Renzi to resign. They succeeded.
This is politicians being politicians, nothing new.
Caleb Jones
Posted at 05:19 pm, 22nd December 2016What exactly am I saying that you disagree with?
The New Yorker
Posted at 09:04 pm, 22nd December 2016Hey Caleb,
I agree with you on the fact that European leaders are suicidal, but could you clarify what you mean by “focused on destroying their own culture?”
And on an unrelated side note, you mentioned in your “Moving out of the country” post that Africa has huge financial potential for aggressive businessmen. How so?
By the way, I bought “Sampson and the Wizard” and it was awesome. If only they gave us books like these in school…ah, a man can only dream.
Caleb Jones
Posted at 10:21 pm, 22nd December 2016By importing millions upon millions of third world people into their nations, then forcing their native taxpayers to pay for them, then making excuses for them when they commit violent crimes.
That, on top of all the debt, currency devaluation, and a runaway welfare state.
Huge growth opportunities for infrastructure, water, communications, etc.
Azkaf
Posted at 03:18 am, 23rd December 2016How do you think this EU situation will affect Switzerland?
Pyro Nagus
Posted at 06:58 am, 23rd December 2016I’m have no reliable knowledge when it comes to economics. Is the state of Europe so bad that I should reconsider moving to Germany to study medicine? Or is it a good move to take advantage of the low cost education despite everthing else falling apart?
Caleb Jones
Posted at 12:59 pm, 23rd December 2016Impossible to predict what will happen to certain countries. The short answer is, Switzerland is in Europe, so long-term Switzerland is in huge trouble.
I’m against the entire concept of going to college in the modern era (unless you’re literally going to be a doctor) so you’re asking the wrong person.
JJI
Posted at 08:39 pm, 24th December 2016The EU collapsing is not a signal of the death of Europe, but a rebirth.
The EU is the institution which has created this failure and is destined to die. After that, sovereign independent nations will get back to being good neighbours, trading together, cooperating together, but acting in their own individual self-interests once again.
The EU is more akin to the USSR than it is to the UnitedStatesofEurope.
The EU dying is a good thing! We should embrace it, and hasten its decline.
Caleb Jones
Posted at 01:01 pm, 25th December 2016I certainly think that’s one possible scenario, yes.
Another possible scenario is that European nations go back to doing what they’ve always done throughout most of history, which is go to war with each other.
A third possible scenario is that many nations collapse and go bankrupt under their utterly impossible socialist and immigration policies, while a few other nations prosper somewhat, but only after going through very, very painful recessions/depressions.
A fourth possible scenario is that many/most European nations go bankrupt and China comes in and buys everything, and Europe becomes, as Doug Casey has talked about, “Disneyland for rich Chinese people.”
My overall point is, Europe’s future is very uncertain, and if I lived in a region with that uncertain a future, I would leave that region as soon as I was able.
John
Posted at 06:29 pm, 30th December 2016I have a feeling the whole world is declining not just the west
Changer
Posted at 10:18 am, 12th January 2017What is a good timeframe you would recommend for europeans to prepare and leave?
Is 3-4 years fine for dutch and germans for example?
Caleb Jones
Posted at 05:23 pm, 12th January 2017I can’t give specific time frames for specific countries. All I know is if I lived anywhere in Europe, I would set a goal to out of there within 2-3 years. If you have absolutely no money, then I suppose you could probably wait longer. (5-7 years?)
But that’s just my opinion.