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Betting On International

America’s next recession is coming shortly. It may already be here. How do you make money in your investments, or at least protect your investments, if America is in recession and most everything there goes to shit?

As always, I am not an investments expert and I don’t give financial advice. I’m just telling you how I see things based on the massive amounts of data I have in front of me.

If the United States completely collapses tomorrow, that would not be a good thing for the economies of the rest of the world. This is obvious since, better or for worse, the US is the economic engine that powers most of the planet.

Granted, that is rapidly changing as China moves into the forefront, and the US’s dominance over the world will diminish as time goes on, but at the moment, that hasn’t happened yet.

Today I’m not talking about the USA actually collapsing. That will happen eventually, but it won’t happen today, or tomorrow, or even this year or next. That’s down the road. What will happen very soon is America’s recession. In an American recession, the rest of the world (with a few exceptions) may possibly be harmed, but many may actually do very well. Here’s what I mean.

The value of the US Dollar is artificial right now. Its high value is completely false, based on factors such as the Federal Reserve screwing around with our currency and interest rates, all the way to the petrodollar.

Many countries, especially emerging markets, particularly SE Asia which is the only true long-term growth area in the world, are harmed by the fact that the value of the US Dollar has been pumped up artificially. A strong Dollar means their own currencies are weaker. There are some advantages to this for larger nations (like with China), but for the emerging markets, it pretty much sucks.

The interesting part is that a crash in the value of the US Dollar is probable, and probable soon, especially if the next US recession is on the horizon, which it is. In the next big recession, the insane US government will have no other option than to jack up the money printing. This will likely harm the US Dollar (in addition to many other things that will put downward pressure on our currency).

This is one of the many reasons I own investments such as gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies. These will likely do very well if the Dollar drops (especially gold). They’re not guaranteed to do well, since there are no guarantees in life or in investing, but they probably will.

Many international countries, especially the emerging markets, will also do well if the US Dollar drops. Their currencies will suddenly become very strong, boosting their economies.

This is why I have investments in so many other countries outside of the US. If the US goes into recession, US assets will definitely be harmed, but many foreign assets will either sit around and do nothing, or skyrocket, at least eventually.

As I’ve talked about before, while the future of the USA and of the Western World is dark and will continue to get darker, the future for the world is actually very bright. While people in the West will be angrily complaining about how horrible everything is getting, most people in other countries outside of the West will be experiencing huge and dramatic increases in technology, lifestyle, standard of living, and income. 2019 may very well be the first year where you really see this dynamic on a large scale.

I’m not betting on the West, but I am betting on the world outside the West, and in a very strong way. This is not only with my investments, but with my businesses as well. One of my business goals is to get 65% of my grand total income from all of my companies to be generated from outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe. This is the first year I really target Asia, South America, and Oceania as income sources (while still maintaining my income from the West).

It’s a no-lose strategy in my view, since if I’m completely wrong and the West does great, I’ll still make a lot of money. But if the West goes down, my income will still be more or less okay.

Always remember that financially, you live in the WORLD, not just inside your country.

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17 Comments

  1. Brandon Welch

    Hey Caleb I’ve been working on my finances lately and was able to get my emergency savings to $1,000. Currently I planned to get about 1 month of expenses saved in the bank, however since a recession is coming soon I was thinking I should instead pay off small debts like credits cards.

    What do you recommend I do first?

    1) start paying off little debts- I have about $4000 of credit card debt

    Or

    2) have 1 months of expenses saved ($23000) and then pay off debts ( I work a 100% commission job, so i’d Use this account as a buffer.)

  2. Mehmed

    Hi Caleb,im 21 from Turkey.I have no money and no debt,but i speak both french and german and a little english.

    If a reccesion will come and will hit the USA,both Germany and France will be affected.Do you think I should remain in my homecountry(Turkey),or should i go to either Frence or Germany and work there,and not care about the recession that will come?

  3. Bob

    Could you explain why having a weak currency is bad for emerging markets? I’d think it’d be a good thing for the same reasons it’s good for China, i.e. increasing exports to the US.

  4. Anon

    BD, have you studied Sam Ovens / Consulting.com?

    I’ve been watching a lot of his videos over the past week and I find his material very good, and similar to yours in many ways. No surprise that he’s an INTJ.

    Anyway, any thoughts on the Consulting.com method? I might be throwing down 2 grand for it, so never hurts to check with a trusted source.

     

  5. Investor

    Do you think I should remain in my homecountry(Turkey),or should i go to either Frence or Germany and work there,and not care about the recession that will come?

    If you are going to work a normal job for someone else then right now is a good time to be in such countries to milk the maximum possible income with minimal effort. When the recession hits it will of course be too late: high unemployment, low paying jobs etc etc

    The political situation in Turkey isnt the best so its probably a good idea to leave anyway, though the countries you suggested don’t have much better political situation and if things continue the way they are its likely going to get much worse there, especially in France, regardless of recession. I have no idea why anyone in the right mind would want to go there right now. There are many other countries around the world that would be way better options.

    Hey Caleb I’ve been working on my finances lately and was able to get my emergency savings to $1,000. Currently I planned to get about 1 month of expenses saved in the bank, however since a recession is coming soon I was thinking I should instead pay off small debts like credits cards.

    What do you recommend I do first?

    1) start paying off little debts- I have about $4000 of credit card debt

    Or

    2) have 1 months of expenses saved ($23000) and then pay off debts ( I work a 100% commission job, so i’d Use this account as a buffer.)

    I am not sure if you made some typos in your numbers… 23k is one month expenses?! and… emergency savings is only 1k?
    Even if your real monthly expenses are 2300 then its still way too high, you should work on cutting that down unless you have a really huge income, in which case the 4k debt should be no problem and your emergency savings should be in the 10s of thousands.
    Also I dont know where you live but 1k isnt much in most of the west, that really just for emergency, and it wont cover even one month of living pretty much anywhere in the west.
    Also credit card debt usually has very high interest so the longer you take to repay it the larger it will be, get that out of the way as soon as possible and next time dont get credit card debt! Very, very stupid. If you need to borrow emergency money do it somewhere else, not with credit card! That is the worst possible way to borrow money.

  6. Caleb Jones

    What do you recommend I do first?

    1) start paying off little debts- I have about $4000 of credit card debt

    Or

    2) have 1 months of expenses saved ($23000) and then pay off debts ( I work a 100% commission job, so i’d Use this account as a buffer.)

    I’m assuming $23,000 is a typo and you meant $2300.

    Pay off your debts. $1,000 emergency savings is all you need at your income level. You’re done saving for the time being. Pay off your debts.

    If a reccesion will come and will hit the USA,both Germany and France will be affected.

    Yes, though I don’t know how hard.

    Do you think I should remain in my homecountry(Turkey),or should i go to either Frence or Germany and work there,and not care about the recession that will come?

    I would not base that decision on a possible upcoming recession. Base that decision purely based on your goals, nothing else.

    Could you explain why having a weak currency is bad for emerging markets? I’d think it’d be a good thing for the same reasons it’s good for China, i.e. increasing exports to the US.

    Emerging markets don’t export to the US as much as a powerhouse like China. Stronger currency helps the internal economy of smaller, emerging nations (generally speaking; there are exceptions to this). And a sudden drop in the US dollar would help these nations on several different levels, at least in the short-mid term.

    Anyway, any thoughts on the Consulting.com method?

    I know who Sam Ovens is and I’ve watched a few of his videos but that’s the extent of it, so I have no opinion.

    Coincidentally, I go in tomorrow to film half of the Location Independent Consultant course. 🙂 Super excited.

  7. Anon

    Coincidentally, I go in tomorrow to film half of the Location Independent Consultant course.

     

    That sounds great, looking forward to hearing more about it. Definitely  in the market for that kind of  info product.

     

  8. Osman

    Caleb, this might be two silly questions but honestly I’m pretty new to investing and don’t know how to go about these…

    How does one invest in commodities such as silver, which you have advised?

    How does one invest outside the US?

  9. Investor

    How does one invest in commodities such as silver, which you have advised?

    There are different ways, you can open a broker account and invest in something like ETF where you do not actually own the goods but just speculate on the value of it, you can buy physically some silver in a store / online and store it somewhere, you can buy from a metal dealer who also offers a vault storage and just have it directly stored for you without ever seeing the stuff (can be in other countries) and so on. The right answer depends on how much you want to invest, for how long and to some extent what is your reason for investing in it and also on the rest of your portfolio.

    How does one invest outside the US?

    Depends what you mean by investing outside of US. If you mean stocks of non US companies this can be done even with US brokers though the options might be more limited and it can be more expensive. You can of course always chose a foreign broker.

  10. Marty McFly

    Nomad Capitalist put out an excellent vid last week that summarized how to live and work remotely.

    Boom-Shaka-Laka! Here it is:

    https://youtu.be/CbPCmsIhFqI

  11. joelsuf

    Sam Ovens / Consulting.com

    Just watched a video of his, and I have a legit man crush on the dude. Some of the best shit I have seen on youtube in a long, LONG time.

  12. Caleb Jones

    How does one invest in commodities such as silver, which you have advised?

    Investor answered this well.

    How does one invest outside the US?

    Too general a question. Easiest way is to look at foreign ETFs.

  13. joelsuf

    Nomad Capitalist put out an excellent vid last week that summarized how to live and work remotely.

    His approach seems like three flags instead of five flags and is very doable. I bookmarked it, I’m gonna be following that once I start making a lot of money.

  14. Anon

    His approach seems like three flags instead of five flags and is very doable.

    Er, which two flags is he missing? The three ones he listed explicitly were the country where he resides, the country where he earns his money and the country where he keeps his assets. He does not appear to be a citizen of any of those, that would be the fourth flag. The fifth flag is a couple of clicks on aliexpress.com away, which he most likely already does.

  15. Investor

    What do you think of gold backed crypto? A good idea (it helps overcome many of the usual crypto downsides) or a scam? (some critics say you’re just helping someone else buy gold…)

  16. Caleb Jones

    What do you think of gold backed crypto?

    I think it’s one of the best ideas I’ve ever heard provided you’re dealing with a reputable company with a decent track record.

    Peter Schiff already has a company that essentially does this called Gold Money. I will do something like this at some point.

  17. Investor

    Peter Schiff already has a company that essentially does this called Gold Money.

    That is very interesting. It is basically a bank account where the money is held in precious metals and can be withdrawn using a payment card or with crypto. Not exactly a gold backed crypto but in a way its a similar idea.

    I will do something like this at some point.

    To open such an account? Or you mean to start a company like this?