For many months, alt-right-wingers all over the world have been salivating over the French presidential election. In their sugar high from Brexit and Trump, they incorrectly assumed that the “entire Western world” was “finally moving back to the right.” They were quite excited that the French version of Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, would probably win, as the next pillar to fall in this “new wave of conservative taking over US/Europe.”
As I already explained last year, this analysis (or should I say, irrational hope) is completely incorrect. The populace of the West are angry at the establishment and the elites, but they’re still just as left-wing as they always have been, and will continue to move to the left.
Case in point; Le Pen made it to second place in the election, but then got her ass handed to her, losing 34% to 66% to Emmanuel Macron, a former socialist who loves the EU and loves importing mass amounts of third-world refugees. He’s the European version of a “centrist,” which of course means left-wing on the American scale.
So there you go.
When you take the emotions out of the analysis (take out the alt-right excitement/rage and the left-wing defensiveness) and look at the current state and near future of the West objectively, you come up with this:
1. Westerners (USA, Canada, Europe, Australia, etc) are mostly left-wing.
2. Westerners are continuing to grow more left-wing, not less.
3. Anger directed at the establishment does not denote a political shift from left to right. It simply denotes anger (anger I agree is well deserved). The typical Westerner is a left-winger who is mad at the current establishment, but who is still on the left of the vast majority of political views (welfare state, health care, war, drugs, etc).
4. Because of this anger, right-wing candidates can win over left-wing candidates if the left-wing candidates are horrible beyond belief (Trump beating Hillary), but if the left (or leftish) candidate is not terrible, the left will win, as it usually does (Le Pen losing to the boring but not insanely problematic Macron). Again, this does not denote a shift in political opinions from left to right.
5. The European Union and the United States are both economically screwed long-term no matter what happens or who gets elected. These silly elections are entertaining, emotional exercises, not a means to any actual problem-fixing.
It’s an interesting time to be living, to be sure, but it’s not a right-wing time. It’s a left-wing time, and will continue to grow more left-wing until things actually start to collapse. (And even then, people may still embrace big government as their savior, as history shows this to usually be the case.)
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Gil Galad
Posted at 06:11 am, 14th May 2017There’s also the fact that when it comes to rallying tens of millions of voices to herself, Le Pen wasn’t nearly as good as Trump. If you watch her debate with Macron, you do see her being very aggressive but you do not think of her as “alpha”; if anything it’s Macron who was alpha-ish by never once taking her baits and losing his cool. She did not gather enough leads that would raise half of the french population in a perceived “common cause” – which she *might* have if she had slightly moderated her discourse – and she didn’t prepare the debate intelligently.
But yeah it’s probable that even then, it would’ve just given her up to 45% instead of 34%, not over half.
I also agree that Macron is more or less what passes for centrist in Europe. It’s funny how he’s been contradicting himself in interviews about being and not being a socialist – you kinda HAVE to throw a bone to the idea of “the left” and “socialism” if you wanna have a chance to win a presidential in France as a non-rightwinger. I suspect he’s even farther from the left than he makes it look and that he’s weaseled his way to the top pretty cleverly. But still definitely on the left by US standards.
Alex Jones
Posted at 08:57 am, 14th May 2017Sorry, your analysis here is incorrect. Nobody really expected Le Pen to win except the most deluded. What is remarkable is that she made it to the runoff in France. France is the very heartbeat of the EU. They founded it with post war Germany (the steel and coal union because, you know, steel and coal is what you use to make weapons) they have grown fat off of it because of their inefficient farming system, and they have managed to keep French somewhat relevant as English engulfs the world. If you want to see bureaucracy crushing the free market just drive around rural France for ten minutes. You will see dozens of farms with three chickens and a cow, a couple of acres of corn and a farmer who drives a BMW.
France is the ultimate leech, sucking the blood of Germany as they continue to pay reparations for Hitler, and continue to reapply for readmission into the human race. The French love the EU, and the idea that someone like Le Pen would be anything but a cartoon character should make the EUers quake in their boots.
It is like your ex wife campaigning for the elimination of alimony, going to court, and when the judge is about to sign the order, she changes her mind at the last minute. The miracle is not that your alimony is gone, it is that she even contemplated it in the first place, irrespective of the actual outcome.
Of course I think the real delight is that Le Pen is female. What a conundrum for the left. Should we say that, like Hillary, Marine obviously lost because of the rampant sexism in the electorate?
In one sense you are right though. It is not a right wing swing. It is a “we hate the king, give us a different one.”
Caleb Jones
Posted at 12:01 pm, 14th May 2017Yep.
You realize that you and I agree on pretty much everything you said in your comment, right?
Great, but that is not the argument I’m responding to. I’m responding to the argument that someone like Le Pen could actually win (and create real change).
joelsuf
Posted at 03:13 pm, 14th May 2017“we hate the king, give us a different one.”
This is exactly why I am an anarcho-capitalist, we just think government is going to solve all of our problems. Trump promised that he would drain the swamp and what did he do? He replaced it with more swamp. And then he found a way to make Obamacare even worse by raising the premiums of marketplace insurance policies and having it cover less stuff.
But no, “Anarchy doesn’t work.”
Cool story bro. Then let me ask: What does? No one can tell me the answer without their solutions involving stupid amounts of unnecessary force (hint: There is no such thing as necessary force).
The right needs to straight up opt out on thinking that they can change what doesn’t want to be change. I’ve been arguing since high school that the only way a ruling class can completely be altered is through violence. I don’t think I’m wrong on that. They’ll hopefully come to similar epiphanies going into the 2020s, but I doubt it. Oh well, sucks for them.
Leftists really need to understand the phrase “careful what you wish for, because you just might get it.” Cuz they will. And its gonna suck for everyone, them included. I actually can’t wait until the 2030s when some androgynous nonwhite dyke feminist 39 year old version of Bernie Sanders becomes president (or probably Empress by then), increases the tax rate to 80% and the minimum wage to like $50 an hour lol, creates a new religion (it’ll be worse than Scientology lol), completely rewrites the constitution, and then creates food, internet and and healthcare “quotas.” There will be a curfew and everything that everyone does in the US will be monitored and no one will have privacy because “The triggered must be protected” (that will be her campaign slogan). The exact same people who voted her in will be her worst enemies. Shit’ll get real by then.
By THEN we will see another assassination. People have been making predictions that Trump will be assassinated or that there will be an attempt, but no, doing that kind of thing requires one to be a pissed off Alpha 1, and all the Alpha 1s have been getting their egos stroked by the “sugar high” of Trump and Brexit as CJ said. But when the leftist crowd feels the betrayal of their own idols smashing them, they are gonna have to turn Alpha 1. Then we’ll probably see some androgynous gay man version of Joan of Arc lead a Coup or something. Sorry if this is getting out of hand, I like making fun of this stuff lol.
Me? I’ll be chilling somewhere in Southeast Asia by then, watching and laughing my face off.
CJ is right. Its time to get out of dodge. I only wish I saw the signs five or so years ago so I could have taken action earlier. But I’m reading up on his “five flags” articles now so I can set this up. Sometime in 2018 I’ll be visiting some of the places he mentions.
I gotta keep telling myself that moving out of the US is my only option going into the 2020s, because I really don’t want to be anywhere near the west when it becomes a poor man’s USSR.
Gil Galad
Posted at 03:27 pm, 14th May 2017Reacting to Joelsuf’s comment:
@CJ: sorry if you’ve already answered that, but what’s your rationale for preferring minarchism to anarcho-capitalism ? What’s the advantage when it’s the state that runs the basic stuff like roads, the police, etc.
@Joelsuf: can you be more specific about South-East Asia ? My long term immigration project (probably 10+ years away but I still don’t plan on flirting with France for too long) is currently eying South America (Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile…); China seems too authoritarian for me, and I also hear it’s still too polluted. Any insights ?
As an aside, there is actually a blogger who wrote an article along the lines of “it’s time for a curfew for men”. Her logic: apparently if you punish all men for what harassers and rapists are doing, the harassers and rapists are gonna “get the hint” and start behaving. It’s fun imagining trolling her, just for the f*ck of it.
Kurt
Posted at 07:20 pm, 14th May 2017“People have been making predictions that Trump will be assassinated or that there will be an attempt, but no, doing that kind of thing requires one to be a pissed off Alpha 1”
Wrong. Hinckley?, Oswald? Not Alphas. More like Omegas.
joelsuf
Posted at 05:06 am, 15th May 2017“can you be more specific about South-East Asia ? My long term immigration project (probably 10+ years away but I still don’t plan on flirting with France for too long) is currently eying South America (Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile…); China seems too authoritarian for me, and I also hear it’s still too polluted. Any insights ?”
I’m only going by what CJ and to some extent, Doug Casey have been saying. I need to do a lot more research to actually have any insights. I just don’t want to live in a poor man’s USSR and be privy to five year plans and great purges like its 1936 Russia. Soooooo I have to get info on doing that, but I’ll admit I’m clueless right now.
“there is actually a blogger who wrote an article along the lines of ‘it’s time for a curfew for men’. Her logic: apparently if you punish all men for what harassers and rapists are doing, the harassers and rapists are gonna “get the hint” and start behaving.”
*Opens a new tab, getting ready to Google this*
This is gonna be good.
“Wrong. Hinckley?, Oswald? Not Alphas. More like Omegas.”
I suppose. But that was back then, when Omega males weren’t glorified and were universally seen as creepy bastards who NO ONE liked or tolerated. But now, going back as early as Harris and Klebold, the common Omega male only THINKS about those kinds of things and would never be smart enough to do what Oswald and Hinckley did. That and Omega males have places they can go where they can get unlimited amounts of pity from other omegas.
Caleb Jones
Posted at 10:17 am, 15th May 2017There is none. The reason I’m a minarchist instead of an anarchist is because anarchism will never exist in the real world. Sadly, human beings like governments. (Anarchism, like communism, is a utopian concept that looks great on paper, but people will never actually do it.)