Update: To save you some time, click here to read the updated version of this article. Below is the old version.
I’m going to deviate from my usual topics to address this since I’m getting so many questions about it. I’m also going to tie it into the concepts that I usually do discuss.
One of the core concepts I teach is rationality. Rationality means that you operate within the world as it really is, based on verifiable facts, science, statistics, and hard numbers. Rationality does not mean operating within the world as you hope it is, or as you feel it is, or as you feel it should be, or as you are told it is.
Human beings are fundamentally irrational. They are prone to get really excited (in a negative or positive way) about things that are not real. This is due to OBW, or Obsolete Biological Wiring (as I describe in detail in The Unchained Man). For example, you have deeply embedded DNA that tells you to be scared if you hear a sound in the woods. After all, it might be a saber-toothed tiger that will FUCKING EAT YOU!
The problem is that there aren’t any saber-toothed tigers anymore. You’re perfectly safe. But your stupid, outdated, obsolete biology doesn’t know this. It tells you to be scared for no reason.
This reasonless fear manifests itself on a macro-societal level about once a decade or so.
In the 1980s we had the AIDS “epidemic.” Everyone in the world was horrified that we would all have sex and then die of AIDS. Those of you as old as I am can remember how terrified people were of this and how it dominated the news for several years.
What actually happened? A statistically minuscule number of people died, nothing really happened, and everyone forgot about it. Society was terrified for no reason.
In the 1990s we had Y2K. For years, everyone was terrified that the world would come to an end on January 1st, 2000, since computers weren’t designed to handle that date. Everyone hoarded canned food and all kinds of other insane shit. There were tales of trains crashing into each other, stock market collapses, planes falling from the sky, and so on.
What actually happened? A statistically minuscule number of computers had a few minor problems, nothing really happened, and everyone forgot about it. Society was terrified for no reason.
In the 2000s and then again in 2010s we had the swine flu and bird flu. Everyone was horrified that we were all going to die. Asian stocks and real estate values collapsed… temporarily. Everyone was terrified that it was the beginning of a world-wide depression and dark age.
What actually happened? A statistically minuscule number of people died, nothing really happened, and everyone forgot about it. Society was terrified for no reason.
Now we have this silly coronavirus. Yet again, everyone in the world is panicked that we’re all going to die. From the flu. (Never mind the fact that over 4,600 people die per month from the flu already.)
What’s going to actually happen? A statistically minuscule number of people are going to die, nothing will really happen, and in a year or two everyone will forget about it. All this fear and handwringing will be for literally no reason (other than to make the media some extra money).
And 5-10 years from now, there will be some other useless scare, everyone will freak the fuck out, nothing will really happen, and people will forget about it again.
Because people are irrational.
Your job, if you want to be long-term happy, is to not be one of these people. Focus on the facts and take action accordingly. Don’t focus on what the media is hyping or what your friends on Facebook are saying or even what you are feeling. These things are false.
I’m not going to give you a statistical blow-by-blow of the coronavirus because I haven’t been paying much attention to it, and that’s the point. Instead of worrying about this I’ve been busy working on my Mission and my goals. That’s what you should be doing instead of worrying about this latest reasonless fear.
The bottom line is that this is the flu. The flu doesn’t kill you (unless you’re very old and feeble already, and even then it’s a bizarre exception to the rule). Much of the time people who have the coronavirus don’t even have any symptoms. Again, the only people who have actually died (like a few thousand people in China out of a BILLION or 14 people in the USA out of HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS) are old sickly people.
As usual, the media pumps this up because that’s how they make money. Instead of saying, “81-year-old sickly man in an elder care facility just died from the coronavirus because he was a sickly old man before catching it,” they instead say “HOLY SHIT THE 14TH PERSON JUST DIED! THIS IS A TERRIBLE EPIDEMIC EVERYONE! BE SCARED! AAAAAHHHH!”
And a hell of a lot of you are falling for this.
And that’s stupid.
Be rational instead.
I could get the coronavirus myself tomorrow, and I still would have the same opinion. I would have a sore throat for a few days, then I’d get better, and then I would move on. So would you.
Many of you need to read this article to review the 2% Rule. As a matter of fact, lately I’ve been tempted to re-post that article every three our four months at all of my blogs since so many of you regularly freak out about things in the comments that will never happen.
The 2% Rule states that if something only has a 2% or less chance of happening to you, then you completely forget about it and proceed as if nothing is wrong. Because nothing is wrong. You’re just being insane.
What are the odds of you personally catching the coronavirus? It’s a tiny fraction of one percent. 2% Rule then. Don’t worry about it.
But let’s be really irrational and say you actually do catch it (which you won’t). What are the odds it will kill you? The real death rate of the coronavirus in most countries, even in the hardest-hit cities, is between 0.5% and 0.7% (this 3.4% death rate you keep hearing about is horseshit). And even that only applies if you include old, sickly people. (Of all the people who died in Italy that everyone was freaking out about, the youngest one was 72.)
2% Rule wins again.
Stop worrying about this.
Am I saying literally nothing bad will happen? Oh no, plenty of bad things are going to happen over the next few weeks. But it won’t be because of the coronavirus. It will be because of irrational humans getting scared of the coronavirus for no reason.
Stock markets around the world are going to decline (which they should, since they were all bubbles in the first place, as I’ve demonstrated many times over at my other blog). The airlines and health insurance industries are going to be in serious trouble (and, because of our ridiculous corporatist economy, will likely be bailed out with yours and my tax dollars, as usual). Many industries are going to suffer for a while.
That’s okay, because one of the other concepts I teach is to exploit the collapse of the West for your own personal gain. As I’ve shown many times at both of my blogs, Westerners are as irrational as they have ever been in all of modern history, particularly regarding things such as politics, tribalism, and societal scares. Since there is nothing you can do to stop this, you might as well profit from it.
I can’t tell you exactly what I’m doing with my investments (read this if you want to know why) but I am watching the markets and commodity prices very, very carefully. I intend on making a decent amount of free cash off this chaos, just like I did when Tantrum Trump was elected. Stock market prices are likely to decline sharply, and things like commodities and cryptocurrencies may experience a temporary boost. And the markets will quickly recover after this false scare is over. If the scare is sustained long enough, it might even harm Tantrum Trump’s re-election likelihood (which was pretty much in the bag before this false scare).
Do with this information what you will. Hint hint.
In about two weeks I’ll be spending a month in Eastern Europe, hitting at least three different countries (Ukraine, Armenia, and Georgia). That will involve a lot of flying for me. I can’t wait to relax on planes that are half empty, not having to worry about long lines at the airports, and perhaps even getting a few free first-class seats. Win! Thanks, coronavirus!
While everyone is terrified to fly to Asia, my son just flew to Taiwan last week and got a great deal. Smart.
I could go on and on with examples. If everyone else is going to be a mob of terrified idiots, take advantage of that! It’s awesome.
But Caleb, shouldn’t I buy some food and water and stuff in case this gets out of hand?
You should have already had all of that stuff in your home well before this. Take a minute and read this article that I wrote three years ago on exactly what kind of emergency prep materials an Alpha Male 2.0 should have in his home at all times, for any major emergency, not just a false flu scare. For example, I’ve always had an emergency store of 30 days of non–perishable food and at least 15 days of drinkable water, as well as ways to prepare the food with zero running water and no electricity. You never see me running to Wal-Mart like a maniac every time something bad happens; I’m relaxed because I’m already covered.
If you waited until now to get this stuff, you already fucked this up. The last thing you want to do is run to the store to get these items when everyone else in your city is doing it. Again, not rational.
The Alpha Male 2.0 is a man who successfully navigates his rational, happy life even when he lives in a sea of chaos, irrationality, and absurdity (which certainly describes the Collapsing West today). He doesn’t get involved in it, he doesn’t contribute to it, and he’s not negatively affected by it. (At best, he profits from it.)
As always, the choice is yours.
Edit/Update: There seems to be a percentage of readers who are triggered by the phrase “it’s like the flu.” So to be clear:
1. I understand that the coronavirus is not the flu.
2. I understand that coronavirus is worse than the flu.
3. #1 and #2 above don’t change a single thing I’ve said regarding this issue.
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Just curious, where did the 2% rule come from?
The market isn’t reacting to the scary virus, but rather to China pretty much shutting itself down. This blow to the Chinese economy is very much real, and its consequences include the drop in the oil prices and a heightened desire of the market to find suppliers of goods in places other than China. I doubt the market will return to the status quo very quickly.
Thank you Caleb. Strongly agree. So glad to know I’m not the only one of this (unpopular) opinion. For a while I was actually wondering if there was something wrong with me because I just don’t get it. Timely post!
And the hilarious part of that is that there’s something wrong with everyone else.
Me. Years ago I realized that most people, including me, would worry about things that would statistically never happen to them, and how much of a stupid waste of energy that was. 2% was the best number I came up with after a lot of thought. So if something bad has a 7% chance of happening, yeah, you should probably address it (wear your seat belt, have some emergency food in your home, etc), but if it’s 2% or less you’re just being irrational.
Correct. As I said in the article, there will be serious problems, but not because of the virus; it will be because of irrational humans over-reacting to the virus.
Fine. Exploit it.
I know you love off topic questions but why did you change your logo?
My attorneys informed me that now that I’m getting more well-known I was risking a legal problem with Mortal Kombat since my old logo was too similar. Had to change it now before it became a possible problem later.
I also didn’t like the shape of the circle (too beta-looking in my view) and wanted something more hard and angular; the shield shape is much better.
And yes, I’m sure a lot of guys are going to dislike the new logo. Don’t care.
I’m pretty sure the decision to enact some sort of quarantine measures on 800 fucking million people was not taken irrationally. But you’re right that it doesn’t matter, all that matters is how I personally can structure my future actions with this in mind.
I remember the AIDS scare in the 80s. That plus a lot of conservative Christian sexual programming were the main reasons I didn’t lose my virginity until I was about 24. 😒 Some of my biggest regrets are the women I could have had sex with in high school and college but didn’t because I was sure God would smite us both with horrible diseases. Then we’d both die and go to hell. I am SOOOO glad I don’t believe that crap anymore.
I worked at a bank during the Y2K scare. One customer withdrew about $350K in cash in case the banking system collapsed and was carjacked on his way home. That’s the worst thing I remember about it, and that was because of panic, not any actual Y2K disaster.
I also remember stories about people being trampled and dying in the rush to get vaccinated for the swine flu who would not have died even if they caught it.
Now I get to enjoy $200 on-board credit on an upcoming cruise because other people are afraid COVID-19. 😊
Dude I’m booking trips right now since flight prices have dropped-take advantage of the situation as you’ve said! I already had a trip booked to Austin and re-booked to get a big credit after prices dropped. And in related news, they cancelled SXSW due to this insanity which will hurt their local economy big time.
My big concern is the economic impacts with all this irrational panic, like the stupid Fed meeting early to drop interest rates again. I’m not watching the recent market corrections in depth since I know it’ll come back in time-these are all long term diversified investments anyway. And the mass media can seriously go fuck itself, feeding into this fear like they always do.
Pff, in my country, Holland, our Prime Minister just issued a stern warning against hand shaking. There’s an upside to this, I traveled by train today. Mostly on monday it can be commuter hell, but today it wasn’t crowded at all.
While it is very sad for those elderly afflicted by it, this virus shouldn’t be treated like it’s the Black Death all over again.
Oh, well, time to look for some opportunities to make some money, in an honest way.
You forgot SARS (severe, acute, respitory something). When people would talk about coronavirus, i would be like, “yeah, it’s kind of like SARS.”, and people would give me a blank stare.
Haha that is exactly what I’m talking about. The damage is always caused by people being irrational, not by the actual minor problem they’re freaked out about.
It’s been on my to-do list to try a cruise since I never have before. I’m seriously considering going on one now because it’s so god damn cheap.
Yup. Me too.
If those shitheads drop the rates again, great, I’m buying some real estate! PF and I just got back from looking at houses last week in Phoenix. 🙂
Yeah I had a feeling I was missing something.
Haha what about fucking? Are we not allowed to have sex anymore?
In Europe probably not.
Yup. Traffic over the weekend was noticeably lower than I remember it being in a long time. It was nice.
lol this just happened to me. Probably is the corona virus itself too, since I just think its a bug that’s going around and that’s it. Nose is stuffy as shit. The fact that the place I live is starting to get covered by over 9000 tons of pollen doesn’t help either haha. Currently fighting a cold but that should be gone in a couple days. Been coming down with this crap a lot lately, but that’s probably cuz I’m still adjusting to intermittent fasting so my body’s probably just being an asshole.
Bruh the tradcons had a god damn field day with the AIDS scare lol! This took place in the 1990s too but in the 1980s the tradcons were targeting gays and nonwhites but by the 1990s it was everybody. It was other STDs too not just AIDS. I remember my sex-ed classes in junior high where they preached to everyone that if you didn’t wait until after high school to have sex then you would automatically get an STD. Unbelievable. Meanwhile all the cheerleaders in junior high and high school were fucking college dudes LMAO.
Holy shit I remember SARS lol. Everyone thought they were gonna get it and I was like “dude chill, it’s just some annoying bug that’s gonna be gone in a month.”
One month later…no one’s talking about it.
These “scares” are comedy gold. The way some of these people freak out about this stuff is pretty funny.
as BD mentioned he didn’t research much about coronavirus and it shows.
I’ve been exiting stock market slowly throughout February, planning to reenter sometime next year when things come down. Should have bought some physical gold though.
Tell me specifically what I got wrong then.
I was already out of the stock market.
I’m going to buy in very soon if it keeps going down. Then sell it all when guys like you come back into the market.
Yes, you should have. I already have shitloads of gold (and silver and other commodities). My gold is already up 30% in the last few years and I expect that gain to go up by at least another 50% soon.
Hi Caleb! I’m a 25yo young gun, and old time reader but never commented. It’s the time now. However, I’m from Italy, Venice, right in the middle of the fucking stupid red zone. They have blocked us every services, bar, restaurants, malls, gyms etc.. Only groceries are open.. You Can’t leave your city/place, neither to buy groceries 3 km from where you live.. They have given us a stupid paper model to write where, when and why you are going to that place.. If cops stops you down the road and you haven’t a work or medical reason to be far from your home they fuck you up.. 1000€ fine and you risk 3 to 6 monti of jail.. Very fucking hilarious.. All the people are freaking out for things that will never happen and it will Be a very rough time for us entrepreurs here in this highly Corrupted, extremely high taxed, close minded, poor living and dead country. .. I’ve just started my Own business of physical therapist and it’s a pretty big punch in the stomach, zero work flowing..I am learning this lesson very hard, time to jump start this Alpha 2.0 business.. My fault.. Sorry if I’ve made writing mistakes, i am doing my best..Have a nice day Dragon
Blood is in the water. I just bought a ton of cruise line and airline stocks. Time will tell….
I didn’t even notice the new logo until it was mentioned. Its nice, but it is a Red Dragon…….
and
You are the textbook example and answer to all these guys who say “why would I need to be location independent???” or “I don’t need to be location independent!!!” It’s exactly why I wrote this article last week.
Being FORCED to remain in the city or country you live because you have a location dependent job or business is NOT the path to long-term happiness. Too many things can go wrong. And do go wrong.
Just ask people in Italy like Valerio.
You’re missing a few things:
The virus grows fast. Three weeks ago Italy had zero cases. Now 9000, growing 20% *per day*
China had few deaths because they did a mass lockdown. Taiwan and other asian countries have likewise contained it through extensive measures. Places without those measures will see rapid growth instead. (Doesn’t need to be a lockdown btw. Taiwan’s response has been exemplary)
Deaths from the disease spike when hospitals are overwhelmed. This happened in Wuhan, and it’s happening now in Northern Italy. Whereas the rest of China and Korea have a lower death rate because hospital capacity was never overwhelmed
Deaths also spike from other causes. Every day, hospitals save lives: heart attacks, stroke, trauma, cancer, etc. When hospitals are overwhelmed, these patients don’t get treated. Seriously. Italian hospitals in the north are all covid-19 patients now. Read this report from an Italian doctor there now: https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538
The 2% rule needs to account for conditional probabilities. Most people reading this will not have too much personal difficulty from covid-19. But IF you go on, say, a three week international cruise, you may find yourself stuck on the boat. A lot of countries are banning cruise entry. And currently the disease grows 10x in about 18 days. So three weeks = the world around you getting 10x as infected while you’re onboard. That will increase the odds of stuff like your ship being quarantined, even if it didn’t seem likely at the outset. The same applies to stuff like a quarantine or lockdown happening on a month long trip.
Yes, it’s a very fast-growing flu. It’s still the flu.
Yes but that hospital overwhelm is only temporary, perhaps measured in weeks at the most, before things return to normal. (Exceptions would be third-world countries, perhaps. Not really talking to the third world here though)
What percentage of humanity are going to go on a 3-week international cruise right now?
What percentage of the readers here at this blog are going to go on a 3-week international cruise right now?
2% Rule wins again!
What we’re seeing is worldwide coordination to scare people over what is a common cold/flu. Every media outlet and every country in the world is doing the dumbest shit to scare people. For what reason? I imagine that making money in stocks is one of them. Who knows what else. Maybe just to flex their muscles, and show what control they still have over people. Another possible motive is to distract from something else happening that they don’t want people paying attention to. I’m sure there’s some good reason for this, and it’s not the damn virus. Maybe pushing some kind of legislation.
Agree 100%. Great Article. The most insane thing about this situation is that nobody panicked 4 weeks ago when this thing first came up. They briefly noticed it and the talking heads started blabbering. They only panicked last week when it came to Italy. Insane! Nothing changed. It was always clear that it cant be contained in Asia but these sheep only realized that when the news told them.
Yeah exactly Dragon, if someone want to be long term happy, he needs a location indipendent business. Only when it happens these kind of things you’ll realise it, and this situation it’s a mild one. If it would be worse? Stop with the bullshit, time to the real work now ahah.. Thanks for everything, waiting for other material to drop!
I’m a nurse and I agree on almost all accounts! People are being overly scared and all kinds of crazy shit is happening because of this irrational fear. Most people have nothing to worry about even if you become infected with the virus (which I believe will become extremely common over the next 2-6 months judging by the rate of infection so far). It’s a silly panic, but I’m also planning on buying some stocks in the near future 😉. Might as well profit! (Also, being a nurse during these things is beneficial. We get cash incentives to pick up shifts, and there are plenty available! I can work as much as I like for a whole lot more money!)
There’s nothing wrong taking some hits from the stock market during black swans like this corona shit.
But you MUST HAVE insurances and hedges on your portfolio ALL THE TIME!
Yes, I took hits because I have money on stocks.
But I also gained A LOT from my financial insurances, because I was well positioned on them. Now the only thing to do is to keep those insurances untill cashing time comes, and slowly increase my position because now it’s the right time to buy a lot of things (stocks included).
I don’t disagree but that was because the Y2K had the potential for causing FAR more trouble, and competent people worked really hard to prevent that, and pulled it off. I’m not sure COVID-19 is being addressed very competently, otoh.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KSzBT_XxJ4
Since BD makes a big deal about being rational, I have a few comments on that point.
Rationality fail #1: overconfidence. A rational person doesn’t make confident predictions — “nothing will really happen” — on a topic that they “haven’t been paying much attention to,” on which even the experts have considerable uncertainty.
Rationality fail #2: the 2% rule. Rounding a probability of 2% down to zero is not a rational behavior. Rational action has to take into account both the probability and the severity of different outcomes. A 2% chance of losing $100 is a very different situation than a 2% chance of dying. And repeated exposure to a risk must also be considered. If you follow the 2% rule and shrug off a 2% risk of dying, and this kind of thing happens on average once a month, then it’s even odds you’ll be dead within three years.
Rationality fail #3: ignoring trends. You think the coronavirus is no big deal, because so far the number of cases, as a proportion of the populace, are miniscule. But that’s not the relevant number. The question is, where is it going? And so far, the number of cases outside of China is growing exponentially, in the technical sense of that word: the number of cases has been doubling about every 5-1/2 days. Your attitude is akin to the man who is falling from the top of a ten-story building, and as he passes the fifth floor calls out, “So far, so good.”
Rationality fail #4: ignoring feedback effects. Somebody warns that a flood is coming. Lots of people work very hard to build levees and stack up sandbags. In the end, very little water gets past the barriers. Then BD crows, “See? Nothing happened. There was nothing to worry about.” That’s pretty much what happened with Y2K. If everyone had sat on their hands, some nasty things could have happened. But people got sufficiently alarmed that they took action and prevented those things from happening. It became a self-negating prophecy. The coronavirus may end up being a similar situation.
Oh, and BTW, contrary to BD’s repeated claim, the coronavirus is not the flu. It’s a different class of virus altogether.
Being Italian myself, but living in Australia where I was born, my understanding why Italy is having big Corona problems, is the Ital government had signed a memorandum of understanding with China in early January 2020 to expand air links between the 2 countries in order to expand tourism. That’s presumably of Chinese people visiting Italy, rather than Italians visiting China. Italy’s economy is pretty fucked and I can’t see most Italians giving a shit to visit China, when most don’t fluently speak English, or Mandarin. Weekly passenger flights to China were announced to be increased by 108 and by a further 56 through 2021 and 2022. Obviously this will now get torn up, unless there’s a vaccine.
One more comment. Various people have been pointing to past viral scares that petered out as evidence that they can ignore this one. But consider yourself in a situation where your best information says there’s a 10% chance of something really, really bad happening; do you raise the alarm? That would seem prudent, but such a policy means that 9 times out of 10 you’ll be crying wolf. The evidence of the bird flu, swine flu, and SARS scares suggests that the probability of the coronavirus blowing up is not large, but that evidence is insufficient to push the probability below about 20%.
Hi Caleb,
Regarding travel, aren’t you concerned abt getting stuck in a quarantine?
It would seriously suck to go on a cruise and bc one person tests positive for the virus, be stuck on the ship for weeks. Same with traveling to other cities / countries right now.
Italy initially announced their measures at 2 am in the morning. An area can get quarantined without notice.
The 2% rule, if I understand it correctly, applies to things whose probability of occurring within a given year is less than 2%. That means they repeat every 50ish years. Using this definition, it’s rational to disregard even the most severe threats if they aren’t particularly likely to occur during any given year.
I’m not sure you know how to read. Let me help you by literally copying and pasting something I said in my article that you either didn’t understand or didn’t read:
Am I saying literally nothing bad will happen? Oh no, plenty of bad things are going to happen over the next few weeks.
Technically yes. In real day-to-day life, no.
You have a less than 2% chance of dying every time you get in your car. Are you going to refuse to use cars because of this? If your answer is yes because dying is a severe outcome, then you are literally acting insane.
Incorrect. I think the coronavirus is no big big deal because it’s the equivalent to a fast-growing flu. I do not fear a flu. I don’t fear my wife or my kids or even elderly father getting the flu (since even his odds of actually dying would be well below 2%). You shouldn’t fear these things either.
If 30% of the entire planet got the coronavirus tomorrow morning, my opinion on this would be the exactly the same. You get a sore throat for a week. Big deal. Again, massive temporary problems would occur because irrational people like you would go crazy with needless fear, but not because of the virus itself.
Precisely. Do you really think governments and industries terrified of the coronavirus are going to sit on their asses and do nothing about this problem? Human nature dictates otherwise.
I’m not concerned. If you’re terrified, that’s fine, in two years we’ll see which one of us was right (your comments and mine will still be right here for everyone to read). I’m quite confident it won’t be you.
No, because I follow the 2% Rule.
I’m not going to Italy at the current time and I don’t recommend anyone else do that either.
Went to an *excellent* concert Sat. night. When I bought my ticket, my seat was surrounded by sold out seats, yet when I got there, PLENTY of empty seats. Did people stay home out of fear for a virus that, at that point, didn’t even have any confirmed cases in the entire state??? Whatever – HUGE win for me and for the orchestra as tickets are non-refundable, so they didn’t lose any money on the no-shows!
Too soon to tell.China only reverse it with extreme measures we’d find hard to do in the west. We’ll see how long it takes Italy.
I mentioned this because upthread you said you’d consider a cruise now. My point was the 2% rule applies for most people reading this, but conditional on doing something with a high risk of quarantine (cruise), the risk goes up.
Btw, I would agree that travel to Taiwan was *not* risky, and people worrying about that were definitely ignoring the 2% rule.
Ah, I should have been more clear. I would consider buying a cruise right now that I would go on later this year. I wouldn’t go on a cruise right this minute. Going on a cruise right now might actually incur a risk of more than 2%, so I wouldn’t do that.
Yes, they did. Which is exactly my point. Irrational.
A lot of people made killings shorting United Stock and various Cruise lines (Royal Carribean, etc) and Travelocity et al.
Wish I could “gamble” like that but I’m not the day trader type. I just ride out the markets (whatever my allocation), and try not to time too much. Maybe I’m a sap. I either sell/ get out early, but once it drops, I don’t sell total-market — I believe it’ll bounce back up eventually, albeit slowly. I buy low/ sell high, not vice versa. In fact I have a one-time cash haul coming in, and it seems now is good as any to inject into the market (maybe).
BD, you may be right that this virus isn’t wildly different than other things, but the reaction is. Like others have said, China as massively been impacted. Subways in Shanghai are empty, etc.
In the US, universities are closing — offices are going remote. I know this first-hand, not via news media. The hysteria will only increase in the short-term.
Frankly I wouldn’t be worried unless I was over 60 — or really over 70, but those are the highest death rates. If you’re young, the death rate is so low, the worst case scenario — getting the virus — isn’t even that much worse than the normal flu.
The overall death rate though — even if you say it’s 0.7% — that’s still far greater than the regular flu. Again, mostly old people or people already in bad health.
You are so off the mark with the article and these comments it’s insane.
This entire article should be a lesson in irrationality.
Here’s another direct quote from your article:
but then
So which is it? “Nothing will really happen” or “plenty of bad things are going to happen”? Do you not see how this can be confusing, or are we supposed to read between the lines here? Maybe you should be more precise in your use of language rather than resorting to ad hominem attacks.
and
FALSE. This is not the flu. It’s not “equivalent to a fast-growing flu”. It’s not even in the same PHYLUM as the flu. The symptoms, prognosis, fatality rate, virulence, incubation period, etc are all vastly different from the flu. So this comparison to the flu is just wrong, plain and simple.
FALSE. “I’m not sure you know how to read”. Direct quote from the article you posted:
South Korea is testing over 10,000 people per day and has done an exemplary job at containing this thing, an effort unlikely to be matched by most if not all other countries, and the death rate is STILL 6x that of the flu. China literally quarantined or locked down one tenth of the earth’s population to try to contain this thing. Yet:
So “governments and industries terrified of the coronavirus” are simply overreacting because they don’t understand that this thing is just a flu? China destabilized their economy and literally forced people not to leave their houses (among other things) over a flu? Italy locked down their ENTIRE COUNTRY (something that hasn’t happened since the Bubonic Plague, by the way) over a flu? Japan closed every single school in the country and is paying people $80/day to stay at home over a flu? Must be that all these countries and incompetent governments are simply overlooking a simple conclusion: this is just a flu.
Even if you do end up being “right” and this thing gets contained (which Kevin acknowledged is a possibility, making your proposition nonsensical), you’ll be right for the WRONG reasons.
yup. thought about it…if there was a mega virus epidemic im dead anyways since I work at the airport. next.
My view is similar, but here is what I’m dealing with:
1. As a divorced man, my Ex has gone of the wall with Corona-induced fear. Unfortunately I have to deal with it as she has the kids 50% of the time.
Also – her business “went down” so now for her it’s a double scare.
My advice – keep calm and nod your head. When she makes ridiculous requests (e.g. keep the kids in the house all day) I tell her to “pay for it” (with her time). That makes her more rational (not actually rational).
2. Having MLTRs who are females and prone to irrationality means that I need to calm them down first before I make them cum.
My advice here is to use a clam tine of voice and address the fear. Get’s me through but waists my time.
3. In Israel (I’m Israeli) if you were “contaminated” (potentially exposed) you need to be isolated in your home for 14 days.
I have friends in this situation and they just work from home.
My advice – Be prepared to work from home, or go abroad.
I heard that the death rate for people under 60 is 0.2%. The problem is when your 60 (~10% mortality) or 70 (~15% mortality). Since we are all (or most) healthy adults – I don’t expect anything to happen.
If I get quarantined for some reason, I’ll order groceries online. The only bad thing would be to cut sex for 14 days.
When people talk to me about it I shrug. It’s not like you can actually do something about it (apart from making a profit or exploring new opportunities). Being on the look for new FB is tougher though, so do note.
TheMaleBrain
While it’s right that the odds of any specific person dying from the coronavirus are under 1% (assuming healthcare systems to not get overwhelmed), it’s estimated that 20%-70% of US citizens will get it. So, you’re likely to get it, but not likely to die.
This is completely false, a simple google search could have told you there have been deaths of people under 30. Yes, the number is small, but it’s still there (still more deadly than the flu) and this statement misrepresents the facts.
Regardless, if you get it and move around, you can infect other people, and if enough people do this, it can lead to the hospital systems to being overwhelmed. This has happened in both Italy and China, and considering the US has a tiny amount of hospital beds per capita, it’s probably best to practice a bit of responsible “social distancing.”
I think a huge part of this panic is simply due to it being an election year. The left leaning media will want to say Trump “dropped the ball” on how he’s handling this stupid thing to help their chances since once again they have god awful candidates as usual. As Rahm Emanual once said, never let a good crisis go to waste.
Ding! Ding! Ding! What Crab Rangoon said. The Mueller Report was a busy. Impeachment another bust. MeToo fatigue has set in big time. The suspense and drama over the Democrat presidential candidate is over. The Media need a new calamity to gin up panic and fear over.
I’m not saying Covid19 is completely unimportant – sensible, practical measures to mitigate its spread are worthwhile. But let’s not be shrieking in panic like a bunch of terrified girls.
@Kevin Van Horn and @NotTheFlu (unless you are both the same guy)
I’m just curious, what’s the motivation behind your comments? Getting defensive as you are about this topic, even mischaracterizing some of Caleb comments, I’m confused. Are you in an industry that has been negatively affected by the virus? Did someone in your personal life get the virus? I disagree with some things Caleb espouses and I get it when guys get upset with him when he talks politics or marriage, but mate, getting heated and making several comments in a row when he says we shouldn’t overact to the coronavirus?
Why?
I would avoid most airline stocks (and definitely if you are not familiar with the company), since several went bankrupt in the last few months before the corona virus.
@azog (No, I’m not NotTheFlu)
I’m a nerd. Nerds hate inaccuracy and bad reasoning. That’s the sum total of my motivation.
Seems like a strong reaction for something that trivial.
Do you have an actual position on this topic then? Or no?
Hi. Interesting post. I was trying to read this blog on my iphone, but I couldn’t pinch and make the letters bigger.
You’re right not to be terrified and panic, as that obviously helps nobody. You’re also right about stocking up and preparing for disasters well in advance of the actual disasters. That’s solid advice.
But you’re completely wrong about this being just a run-of-the-mill flu. It’s not. The mortality rate is significantly higher, as is the hospitalization rate, as is the resulting cost to society.
While generally wise, your 2% rule barely applies here. 61 million Americans got the swine flu in 2019 (far higher than 2%), and 12,500 died. COVID-19 will be worse. Optimistic estimates say 35,000 Americans will die from this thing. And this will affect close to 100% of us at a practical day-to-day level, due to the social distancing measures that will need to be put into place. No, those measures aren’t an overreaction—they’re a necessary step for stopping hundreds of thousands of additional people from dying.
This is inaccurate. You say you’re preaching rationality, but you’re just having a knee-jerk overreaction to the people who are having a knee-jerk overreaction. Your eagerness to point out their folly is causing you yourself to wade into folly. The idea that it’s either COVID-19 or silly overreacting people who will cause bad things to happen in coming weeks is a textbook false dichotomy.
To anyone who’s not a complete sociopath or an irrational loon, it’s obviously both. You sound like the former.
I always find the ”2% Rule” hard to grab and too subjective sometimes. It’s a very cool concept but I’m struggled in applying it, like when to ignore an issue and when not to, especially when it comes to potentially severe problems, like death or permanent damage to our body.
This post and comment section is a really good case study to learn more about that rule and I agree with some readers with different points of view from yours. So, Caleb, please address each comment properly (instead of bunch them up and just give a general reply like you would do sometimes). It will help many of your readers, including me.
Thank you.
Hmmm. I remember having a chat with a World Bank water and sanitation man about drinking unboiled water straight out of the tap in Jakarta. He said that actually, there is probably less than one in a thousand chances that you’d get really sick from it — but that if you have a city with ten million people in it, one in a thousand adds up to 10,000 extra people needing medical care every day. So, better to scare everyone into not drinking the water.
Coronavirus is a bit like that. At the individual level, very low risk. But it will have a massive impact on health care services. Try to avoid having a heart attack for the next six months. The emergency room is probably gonna be busy.
Caleb, I usually enjoy the quality of your writing but despite what you claim you have a real problem with statistics and rationality, and several people pointed this.
This just doesn’t make sense. That’s the line of reasoning people apply when they think “why should I approach that cute girl?I’ll probably get rejected, there’s a less than 2% probability I will eventually have sex with her! Let’s watch porn instead.”
Plus, “less than 2%” can mean a lot of things. I have a less than 2% probability of dying when I get into a car, but that less-than-2 actually is a less than 1 chance in a million, so I take the risk and drive one almoste every day. If I had a 1% chance of dying every time I get into a car (still less than 2%), you bet I wouldn’t use one, because, mind you, that means a near-certain death within a year.
This virus behavior thing is getting out of hand. I heard Australia have severe deficiency with toilet paper supply. Many companies (including one where I am working) order raw materials from Italy, which is as one guy here already commented now in total blockade. I personally am not afraid of goddamm virus! I am more concerned about economic effects this little shit Covid-19 will have on economy trends and businesses. At first I was like “no biggie” but now I am not so sure.
Meaning 20% of the confirmed corona cases by this study show severuty or critical conditions.
Meaning regular seasonal Flu is still worst than corona contamination.
So we can estimate a 2% death rate from Corona, still inside the 2% rule Caleb talks about. But…
So if you are under the age of 60, you have a 1.3% chance of dying IF YOU EVEN CATCH THE VIRUS.
source: https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
Me:
BD:
Complete and total non sequitur. I have a far, far less than 2% chance of dying every time I get into my car. Spending five minutes poking around web, I get a figure of roughly 15 deaths per 1 billion miles driven. Since I drive 11 miles to work each day, that gives me a probability of 0.0000165 % of dying by traveling to work, or a factor of about 120,000 smaller than BD’s 2%.
BD:
How in the world could you possibly know such a thing, since you “haven’t been paying much attention to” this issue? What justification do you have for being so confident about something you haven’t even bothered looking into?
BD:
Yes, big deal, because 20% of the cases are severe enough to require hospitalization. 20% of 30% is 6% of the human race, or 450 million people hospitalized. (And we’ve exceeded your 2% threshold.) This vastly exceeds the total number of beds available in all the hospitals in the world. What do you think happens then? Can you see why it’s really, really important to slow down the spread of the virus so all those people don’t end up needing hospitalization at the same time? (BTW, current estimates are that 20-70% of the world will be infected within the next year.)
Bad things will happen over the next few months/weeks (not because of this FLU LIKE DISEASE, YES IT’S LIKE THE FLU, THE FLU, but because of people’s over-reaction to this FLU-like thing), however, these things won’t be any big deal in a year or two, because it won’t be much in terms of the big picture.
SARS killed over 8,000 people (or something like that) with a death rate of almost 10% (a far more lethal death rate than this pussy coronavirus). That was scary at the time. But does anyone give a shit about that now? Nope. Within two years everyone’s forgot about it.
The S&P dropped over 35% during the swine flu, which as bad at the time. Two years later did anyone give that any thought to that whatsoever? Nope.
It will be the same with the coronavirus. Caleb’s Official Prediction: In less than 24 months from now you, Kevin Van Horn, and the 2 or 3 other guys above who are upset about this won’t give a rat fuck about this virus and you won’t even think about it, which means all your hilarious ranting and raving about nitpicking the 2% Rule or what phylum the coronavirus is in (haha!) will have been a complete waste of your time. And I’m going to be right. Watch.
Oh man, I couldn’t stop laughing in real life reading your comment and writing my response. Thanks for the fun.
In all seriousness, the result of this thread is that the vast majority here agree with my overall argument and the very few who are complaining don’t really have a problem with my view on the virus itself but rather the 2% Rule and/or how it’s applied. That explains several of these “Caleb you’re right but” arguments as well as disagreers like Kevin who refuse to state an actual opinion on the virus even when directly asked. (Gee, I wonder why?)
I will make a new article focusing specifically on the 2% Rule and I will cover all the 2% Rule arguments made here as well as similar arguments made regarding the 2% Rule in the past, since there is a small percentage of my readers who really get their hackles up whenever I bring up the 2% Rule. (And people have been so hysterical lately about various topics I’ve had to bring it up quite a bit, and I’m not just talking about this stupid coronavirus.)
Regarding the specific topic of the coronavirus itself, my argument is very simple:
– The odds of you personally contracting the coronavirus is less than 2%, based on the numerous stats I and others have quoted in this article and thread. This is no cause for alarm. Literally. 2% Rule.
– Could it get worse than 2% later? Maybe, but then we’re dealing with guesswork and fortune-telling (they could invent a vaccine tomorrow, or not, or some other unforeseen change could occur, or not). If it does get worse than 2% later, great, then we need too look at what happens to you if you get it. It means you will have flu-like symptoms for a little while and then you will get better. Big fucking deal. We also need to look at the death rate. The odds of you personally dying from the coronavirus even if you get the coronavirus is less than 2%. (Perhaps a little worse then the flu, which is irrelevant, but certainly not nearly as bad as SARS and other viruses we’ve faced in the past). Yet again, the 2% Rule wins, take a deep breath, relax, and do not worry about the virus itself. That would be irrational.
– There will be serious but temporary problems in the meantime to due to irrational people freaking out about a fast-moving, flu-like disease. These problems need to be taken into account. At the same time, these problems will be more or less forgotten 12-24 months from now just like they always are, making all the worry now completely useless and waste of everyone’s time.
If you disagree with anything I just said, either you’re using guesswork or you’re focusing on the statistically bizarre and unusual exceptions to the rule (like focusing on the statistically tiny group of people under age 60 who have died). Focusing your arguments on guesswork or exceptions to the rule is fine I guess, but I have no interest in those kinds of hypothetical or irrelevant conversations. I like to stick with the hard realities of the main topic. Because I’m rational and rationality is what I teach here.
I’ll continue the rest of this in an upcoming comprehensive article regarding the 2% Rule. Coming soon.
I said you were right about a few things because I wanted to be nice and because I generally like you. But I explicitly pointed out that I _do_ have a problem with your view on the virus itself, and you seem to insist on keeping your head buried in the sand about this.
This is asinine. Who cares what people think years from now? Who are you even arguing against? Exactly zero people are claiming that this is going to be the end of humanity, that life won’t go on, etc.
This is a major event today which is why people are advocating for dealing with it today. Two years from now I won’t give a shit what I had for breakfast, but I’m still going to eat breakfast.
Where have you shown the odds of contracting the virus are less than 2%? Nowhere. You yourself keep (erroneously) equating it to the flu, which infects significantly more than 2% of people. And I already pointed out to you that our last flu pandemic, Swine Flu, affected almost 20% of Americans.
Evidence suggests the odds of contracting COVID-19 are also significantly higher than 2%, unless the kind of mass social distancing takes place that you seem to be to discouraging by calling everyone idiots and scaredy cats for advocating practical measures.
“A = B. I don’t fear B, therefore I don’t fear A.” This would be good logic if A = B, but as has been pointed out to you several times and which you continue to ignore, A does not equal B. I will point it out to you again:
Getting COVID-19 is significantly worse than getting the flu. Between 15-20% of people have severe reactions, often including organ and respiratory failure. Yes, it’s worse for older people and sick people, but you’re still either an idiot, an asshole, or both if you want your older family members subjected to those health risks or the associated emotional and financial costs.
The extremely high hospitalization and mortality rates also come at a high societal and economic cost, as they significantly overtax our (already shitty) healthcare system. The Chinese government largely shut down its economy, and many businesses and institutions run by people much smarter, more rational, and more informed than you are canceling events and shutting their doors at great short-term financial cost. This. Is. Not. The. Same. As. The. Flu.
Pick one: Either stop repeating this bullshit or stop calling yourself rational. The evidence is 100% clear to any moderately informed person that the disease itself is going to cause plenty of bad things to happen over next few weeks and months.
I get it. You want to run a blog and say outrageous things that push the envelope so you can get eyeballs. Go for it! Just stop calling yourself rational if you’re going to ignore evidence, spread misinformation, and argue against strawmen. Or find a way to make your point without being irrational.
@POB: I found the article you mention above and if you notice at the end of the article it says, there is an error in the article and fatality rate is far higher than that of seasonal flu.
Here is a more detailed that put things into a better perception. Overall coronavirus is not that of a big deal and death from it simply is an amplification of a preexisting medical problems amongst the elderly.
https://about.futurelearn.com/blog/covid-19-how-does-coronavirus-compare-to-other-outbreaks
Don’t panic. Panicking is stupid and always make things worse.
Don’t overreact, of course nobody is going to care about this in 12-24 months because that’s how humans are. Even if 5 million people die in the US, in two years it will have blown over.
The markets will bounce back. Obviously.
Anyone under 60 has a tiny chance of dying, but can still pass this on to their relatives and other elderly people who then have a 10-20% chance of dying (assuming the hospitals don’t get overwhelmed, in which case the elderly will be deprioritized (see: Italy))
At this point in time, this is not just the flu. The flu doesn’t overwhelm hospital systems in Italy and China every year (if it does the same in France, Germany, and the UK soon, maybe you will start to understand). Nobody has immunity yet, which makes this spread way worse. In 2-3 years, then yes this will likely be just like the flu. (btw: SARS didn’t spread because it was too deadly, the irony is that it kills its host too fast to spread)
This is most likely far more widespread in the US than is known because people will symptoms still aren’t getting tested because of the lack of kits that have been distributed.
School, conference, sporting event, etc closings at this phase have an enormous positive effect on reducing the spread. The amusing part is that if they accomplish this, most people will look back and say they were unnecessary (there’s also no way to “prove” that it would have been worse without them, although scientific evidence does exist)
Taking social distancing measures is the responsible thing to do. Avoid public transportation and work from home as much as possible (not entirely, there’s no need for total isolation!) Avoid large gatherings and unnecessary travel. Don’t shake hands, wash hands often. This is extremely important at this phase of the outbreak to flatten the curve and will become less important in 1-2 months.
There’s no need to disrupt your entire life, but making some small changes now can have a very large effect on how this spreads.
that’s why they have a joke called, ”introverts live longer” during illness outbreak.
aka you should start being an enterpreneur for yourself, start living alpha 2.0 lifestyle!
Thanks for bringing up the subject(s) here. I’ve given a fair amount of thought to the BD 2% rule (there’s actually a real estate 2% rule, too) and coronavirus.
I realize Caleb is planning to write more about the 2%, but I thought I’d like to mention a few things in the meantime. Anyways, here’s my (basically uneducated guestimates) 2 cents:
My thoughts/impressions/take on 2% Rule, from an “intellectual” viewpoint, as opposed to a practical one:
1. The 2% rule is a rule of thumb for personal day-to-day life, not a scientifically studied guide for public health experts.
2. I interpret the 2% rule to mean a 98% chance of success in a given, one-time incident, OR if it’s a recurring event/habit, then 98% chance of continued success. For example, smoking a cigarette once isn’t usually an issue, but it is potentially an issue after 20 years. Washing your hands won’t help usually after one time, but as a daily habit it will likely improve your overall wellness.
3. If you’re generally more risk averse, consider using a 1% rule. Also, consider opportunity costs of inaction.
4. Or think of it in the opposite way. the 98/2 rule or (for the more risk averse) the 99/1. So think of it as doing things that have a success rate of 98% (or 99%) over the lifetime of the action. It’s like seeing the “glass half full”.
5. You can increase your success rates if you follow common sense procedures and habits. For example, in the field of wellness, daily exercise, hydration, proper nutrition and sleep, etc.
6. The 2% rule should factor in risk/reward. If the potential risk is very high, then obviously the reward needs to be very high AND (depending on the person) the chance of success should be much higher, etc.
7. You also need to factor in opportunity costs. Sometimes, you need to choose the “lesser of two evils”. In that case, finding the risk/reward as well as 2% rule may help to make a better decision.
8. In terms of long-term planning, it’s important to separate volatility from long-term risks.
9. Knowing what you know and what you don’t know are important. Understanding the deeper aspects of most popular statistics (and public health studies) will allow one to make more informed decisions. Do you understand the bell curve, standard deviations, R, N, etc?
10. Biologically wired fears vs. statistics. What humans naturally fear and what’s actually more dangerous to us at this point in time may be skewed.
11. Understanding how cognitive distortions/biases work always helps in decision-making, too.
In terms of the COV-19 (or however you want to call it), here’s some ideas I’ve considered. Again I’m not an expert, nor have I studied immunology, public health, etc. It’s just from reading a few wikipedia articles and general press. These are my uneducated guesstimates:
1. As with most things in life, a person makes better decision when in a calm state of mind. Even if calamity/catastrophe approaches, it’s still better to think calmly and collectedly. Whatever one’s viewpoint, it makes sense to focus on clear and calm thinking.
2. If someone is in a higher-risk population, they should plan/act accordingly (age, geographic location, pre-exsting conditions)
3. The best steps to stay healthy seem to be: practicing general healthy habits, washing your hands for 20 seconds, and staying away from sick people. If you haven’t already been practicing these good habit, maybe consider starting now!
4. Most of the experts don’t really know (in a scientific way) how the COV-19 virus(es) behave. They would need to have accurate data over a period of time and also have time to study the behavior. They can make educated guesses, but they won’t know for sure for a while. The choices of public health officials is different than making personal choices for one’s self.
5. We don’t know how accurate some of the data is from different organizations. There is a history from certain governments (including the US and China), of selectively releasing info relating to diseases. (see COV-19 outbreak in CHina, and Spanish FLu in the US, especially Philly). Also, they could be a lot of asymptomatic cases, so the stats may be skewed at the current moment. We won’t really know for another 3-6 months probably.
6. COV-19 is actually (taxonomically) considered a strain of SARS, not influenza. It may act flu-like, but it’s not influenza. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2).
7. People aren’t potentially mentioning SARs in order to not cause people to panic, etc (https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200214-coronavirus-swine-flu-and-sars-how-viruses-get-their-names)
8. I’m not an expert, but if COV-19 acts like the SARs outbreak before, then it’s possible it will die out in the springtime. (https://www.who.int/csr/sars/epicurve/epiindex/en/index1.html). Again, I’m not an expert. This is what I think everyone is hoping for-things to taper off in the springtime! If transmissions continue to rise after late April, then it’s (potentially) a different scenario.
9. The Spanish Flu was influenza and did cause more death than WW1&2, depending on sources. Basically it took humanity a few years to adjust to the new strains that introduced themselves into the worldwide population. While I don’t think COV-19 is like the Spanish Flu, it could have similar characteristics on a less catastrophic level. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu)
It’s what public health officials probably view as a worse-case-like scenario, the parade in Philadelphia gets mentioned, etc.
10. For public health officials, administrators, CEOs, it usually makes sense to play it safe. The general idea seems to be to slow the speed of an outbreak so that hospitals won’t be overwhelmed. The overwhelm of hospitals and medical facilities is actually a big part of the issue. See flattening the curve: https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/wellness-prevention/flattening-curve-for-covid-19-what-does-it-mean-and-how-can-you-help.
11. My inexpert viewpoint – I think healthy individuals will be fine, but should be cautiously optimistic. The bigger risks (at this moment) are from crowd-based behaviours, etc.
Anyways, best wishes to everyone!
Trump announced total travel ban to Europe for 30 days. This is the sort of thing those of us critiquing you were warning about 😉
It’s a rapidly changing situation, and any travel outside a border now carries greater than 2% risks of problems.
Oh dear. This article bleeds of overconfidence, which itself is a sign of irrationality.
Incorrect. The governmental measures are entirely rational for the time being. The governments around the world (not just the United States) are aggressively quarantining the population and it’s only the countries that have been aggressive enough that were able to contain the virus.
The issue is not just the mortality rate; the issue is at least 10% of the infected needing incubation and hospitalization (or face death) and the medical system breaking down as a result of it. Italy’s medical system is at the brink of breaking down – and I have never seen a common flu threatening to collapse the nation’s the healthcare system. And as for American healthcare system…well…
Honestly I expected better from you, Caleb. Article like this genuinely pisses me off. The right thing is say is “Don’t panic, but be cautious and practice social distancing and good personal hygiene so we don’t unknowingly spread the virus,” not “People are irrational, this is just a sore throat, and rational people like us should book trips and profit from the collapse” – it is precisely articles like this that will make virus situation more prolonged. Utterly irresponsible.
Oh, and also, a genuine question – I guess your advice is “buy the dip” – where is the dip?
I can’t get a comment through (why is never explained to me), but I just want to register my disapproval of this post. It’s much worse than the flu, for many reasons. Social distancing might not be necessary from an individual perspective but it’s very necessary for a society.
Another commenter who doesn’t know how to read…
I’ve said at least four times that there will be major problems because of this virus. It’s actually quite impressive that you missed something I’ve repeated so clearly so many times.
This travel ban doesn’t surprise me in the least. And I expect many more travel-related problems as people continue to irrationally overreact to this problem.
I never said anywhere there was a 2% chance of problems. I said there’s a 2% chance of catching the virus.
(And yes, I agree that 2% might increase in certain areas in the future. And I’m still not concerned for the reasons I’ve already stated.)
If you want to disagree with me it’s really important to A) read the words I actually type and B) respond to those words (as opposed to words you thought I typed or wish I typed or words you’re attempting to strawman.).
That seems to be a trigger point for a few readers so eliminate this argument I have just amended my article above with the following statement:
I don’t speak to society at this blog, as I’ve said hundreds of times over the years. I’m speaking to a small percentage of Alpha Male 2.0 individuals here. I’m speaking to you, not society.
BD, I work for a giant bank whose name you would recognize. Today they announced that everyone in the entire company who is able to do so will be working from home indefinitely. We are talking tens of thousands of people across the USA. All because of this virus. And, by the CEO’s own admission, not one single person in the company has a confirmed infection. It is insane.
On the plus side, I will have more time to work on my business and women goals.
I know you don’t care about society and you’re not speaking to it. That’s fine. I’m not criticizing your main points about not worrying for your own personal safety or about the long-term fate of your investments.
The point I take issue with is your assertion that bad things will happen only because of “irrational humans getting scared of the coronavirus for no reason.” The negative economic effects will because of a very rational attempt to slow the spread of the virus. There are 2 possible outcomes – hopefully people rationally push for the second:
Business as usual -> healthcare system gets overwhelmed (very bad outcome, and you could be affected even if you have a non-coronavirus-related health issue)
Extreme social distancing -> bad economic outcomes, but the bad health outcomes are mitigated
Also, even if you’re not personally worried about catching it, you still should be very careful not to spread it to the elderly.
i think that’s 100% buffer, and I’ll point out why in one cite:
Oil prices have cratered because China shut down and hasn’t restarted. Gas is cheap but nobody is driving. Demand has collapsed.
I have weird hobbies (treasuries, municipal bonds) and it was curious when rates started spiking yesterday on short term government bonds. This is because there is a shortage of liquidity.
To me, this stinks worse than 08 (which was just a liquidity crisis) because 70% of US GDP is services and that’s fixing to grind to a halt. But what do I know? I missed that crash and I sold out March 2.
I’m gonna buy my S&P position back once corona cases flatten out and go down two weeks in a row in the US. That requires us to start testing but I digress.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-11/-50-trillion-in-question-after-u-s-treasury-liquidity-dries-up
Sorry about not posting this link above.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-washington-seattle-nursing-home-possible-ban-on-gatherings/
Heres the deal on infection and fatality – we actually kind of know about the reinfection rate, but we have no idea about the fatality rate.
Unless you lived in this Kirkland retirement facility, and and we know that it’s about 20% letheal. That’s 2000% worse than the flu.
Before it’s over, it’s reasonable that 70% of the population will get it, but let’s be conservative and do half. Probably a 2% fatality rate, mostly olds. In the US, that math is:
330m people x 50% x 2% = 3.3 million dead people over the next year. That’s a lot of body bags.
And that is only possible if we declare martial law like China did. We won’t, it’ll be more like Italy. And it’ll blow up again once people go back to work. Why do you think Wuhan hasn’t returned to work yet?
2% or not, not much you can do.
If you’re someone who currently earns at least $US 300 000 a year after paying taxes, please share your best stock picks to buy under the current, ridiculous state of paranoia.
If you are someone who, say, works at the CDC whose job is to care about very large populations then even a fraction of a percent of fatalities is very concerning to you.
But if you are an individual who is not in a vulnerable category (elderly, obese, etc.) then there is not much for you as an individual to worry about.
Caleb do you think this is starting point for next economic crash?
Its interesting to see some articles about investing during the crash in calebjonesblog.
@HeyHey
Thx, and that’s exactly what I got from all the data.
-If you are over 60, be concerned, but don’t stop living a normal life.
-If you are young, you should just avoid critical areas of the globe and keep living your regular life.
Carnival Cruises just suspended operations for sixty days. Do they have enough cash to last sixty days? Will people be lined up to get on a ship then?
Guess we are gonna find out! but S&P futures are off 7% 15 minutes to open.
Point being your abundance mentality is about to run headlong into actual shortages.
Guess we’ll figure it out.
Only Princess Cruises, to be precise, which is a subsidiary of Carnival (responsible for about one fourth of their revenue). Not that it changes much…
That’s great news for you! You now have much more freedom of time with the same pay! As you said, get to work on your Alpha 2.0 business so you can quit that shit!
Read what I said in my comment above about being a fortune-teller. Lots of people made those same dire predictions with H1N1 / SARS and nothing like that happened anywhere.
Assuming the worst case scenario (millions of Americans are going to die soon) is just as irrational as assuming the best case scenario (nothing bad will happen).
I largely stay out of stocks. I haven’t owned an American stock for at least 20 years (unless I’m forgetting about one or two). This is reason #1 I’ve never lost money in my investment portfolio in any given year in my entire life, and I’m the only person I personally know who can say that. I don’t like to lose money, therefore I stay out of stocks. (The only stocks I own are non-American ones.)
I shorted the US stock market a while back so I’ve already made a nice hunk of money (Dow is down to 21K this morning, yay!). Though my commodities and cryptos have also taken a big hit, to be fair.
I would probably wait until the Dow drops below 16-17K (if it gets that low), then buy an index fund. (Then sell the turd as soon as it gets back up over 23Kish… don’t keep it long term! America is in a state of collapse.)
I really, really hope so. This is going to be a fantastic year for me if that’s the case, especially when I get my real estate in the 4th quarter.
You’re going to see a lot of articles at both blogs about how to prosper in a recession. Most of you guys reading these words have never experienced one.
And I can’t fucking wait. The crash of 2008 was one of the best things that ever happened to me.
I just flew from Portland to Los Angeles yesterday. It was one of the most pleasant travel experiences I’ve ever had. The airport had perhaps 20% of the people it usually had. We could pull right up to the curb with no other cars and get right out. There was literally NO SECURITY LINE; I just walked right though in seconds. The plane was quiet and half empty. So nice; I could work in peace. When I arrived at LAX (the worst Airport in the United States) there were no crowds and I just breezed through. It was literally the fastest I’ve ever exited that nightmare of an airport and I’ve been there scores of times. There was a virtual armada of Lyft cars waiting to pick me up with no line (I would not want to be Lift / Uber driver right now but for Lyft/Uber customers its great!). There was no traffic at all going to the hotel.
Don’t panic.
Instead, exploit.
This could be a wonderful year for the Alpha Male 2.0.
Yeah I drive for Lyft and Uber and the second I got sick, I stopped. I still do the occasional delivery but when it comes to picking people up I’m not gonna do that for awhile.
This just means I need to do more freelance writing related stuff which I’ve been kind of ignoring because I made so much more money driving.
It seems like a lot of things are gonna shut down because of this dumb scare. It’s annoying. I’m still convinced that this is just some bug that’s going around and nothing more.
In either case, here’s hoping that it all goes away fast.
When BD told me at calebjones blog that the risk of tremendous recession this year (2008 like) was 2% or less I knew what happened, BD’s judgement got clouded by him being too mentally invested in selling his business course right now and he was not thinking clearly. BD still thinks it’s 2% or less?
Please don’t lie. You said economic collapse this year, not that there would be a recession. So yeah, the odds are 2% or less that the Western world will economically collapse in 2020. I’ve said numerous times over at my other blog that the odds of a recession have been very high for a long time, with or without a virus.
Now calm down and yes, buy my course. Here’s the link. The course offer expires this Monday night so you only have a few days left.
Faith in BD restored lol
In western Europe (not just Italy) I think by now the odds of catching it are much higher. But the important point is that the odds of death are negligible, especially for healthy adults.
Anywhere?
So many body bags in Iran, you can see it from space.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/21176968/coronavirus-iran-outbreak-satellite-photos-burial-trench
Sorry about the broken link above.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
BD is right, I used the word collapse, while meaning recession. Anyway it’s upgraded to a depression.
Everything is down today: stocks, bonds, gold, bitcoin, you name it. Cash is king. Especially when stores are running out of TOILET PAPER!
We are not in a depression.
Harry: EVERYTHING’S GOING DOWN IN VALUE!!!
C Lo: THEY’RE LOTS OF BODY BAGS IN IRAN!!!
Hamoshin: THOUSANDS OF AMERICANS ARE GOING TO DIE!!!
And so on.
That’s great, guys. Actively look for things to be frightened of, find them, and freak the fuck out. Great idea.
I’ll instead refocus on my goals and my Mission and how I can exploit the macro so my family and I will benefit.
The readers can decide which of these two approaches makes the most sense for them.
Hmm. Well, quite a while back, I was overconfident regarding the prospects for a major stock market collapse and put a large portion of my savings in bear funds. I’ve been sighing under my breath for well over a year about it now. Back in the black now, and still some way to go. Major outbreaks in America and intensified political and economic crisis seem like the most likely scenario for the next few months, with a continuation of the slide.
My sincere sympathy for the people that this will impact financially, and hopes for the speedy recovery of all those who are sick. I can’t bring myself to dance with joy about this.
Bear funds are going up. Check out the ticker for HDGE!
Check the ticker for DOG. 🙂
Hmmm. I dont quite get why gold is going down. I’m not heavily invested in it, but the slide seems counterintuitive. A good friend bought eight kilos of the stuff not so long ago. I did think a market collapse might push the price up, but it’s been sliding all week.
But we’re drifting off topic ….
Your logic is sound but gold doesn’t exactly work that way. But yeah we’re off topic. I’ll talk about this over at the other blog.
Meanwhile at the SMIC forum; “COVID? Who gives a fuck? I’m gonna make money, fuck hot women, and work on creating an awesome life!”
Seriously, no one has even mentioned it… Y’all are focusing on the wrong shit.
Actually, I find it very upsetting. But those are the conditions we find ourselves in. No point gnashing your teeth about it and catharting on internet forums.
Any way my more recent comment can be pushed through? Looks like links to some journals get caught by the filters.
WRT delayed comments…
On Monday, I posted a comment linking a very informative recent Joe Rogan interview with an immunologist…you know, someone who actually knew what he was talking about.
It’s Friday, and the comment still hasn’t appeared.
Maybe the mods have the “flu”. 😄
We’ve just restored whatever comments we could (scroll above to see if your comments are there). As I’ve said before, if you post comments here with links, especially multiple links, they will get spam filtered. Either you’ll have to wait a day or two to see your comment or it will get eaten by the filter completely. There isn’t much I can do about this; we get thousands of spam comments at this blog per week and there’s only so much we can do to manage it.
Precisely. Some people here are focusing on the wrong things.
There’s a pile of dogshit on the sidewalk. You can:
1. Stand there, stare at it, smell it, point at it, and scream at everyone walking by about how disgusting it is.
or
2. Quickly glance at it, acknowledge it’s there, step over it and keep waking, and go fuck Margot Robbie.
I teach #2. Those who instead desire #1 aren’t wrong but they’re following a very different life path than the one I espouse.
I also had another thought the other day while I was at the airport reading about people in terror over possibly getting a sore throat for a few days. I now have a strong emotional desire to go where lots of infected people are and actually get the coronavirus and then document exactly what happens to me on my YouTube channel, just to show people that unless you’re in the high-risk category (and the vast majority of humans are not) you have nothing to fear from a cough and a sore throat for a few days that goes away by itself.
I’m probably not actually going to do this (though I am going to be in Eastern Europe for a few weeks soon), mostly because it would scare Pink Firefly, but at an emotional level I want to.
It’s just ridiculous how fearful people are about all this.
You completely miss the point. Of course you yourself will likely not experience anything too severe. But there are many people out there for whom that is not the case. The fear is that, unless we take measures that prevent this from spreading too rapidly, a spike in infections will break the health care system by stressing it way beyond its current capacity. If that happens, many people will die. And not just people with this virus. Anyone who needs emergency care for any reason will be subject to triage and if you don’t make the cut you will be left to die. This is exactly what is happening in Italy right now.
This is a public health emergency. It’s not about how the virus is likely to affect you or I. It calls for collective action to prevent the above outcome from materializing here. In a way it’s like a war. I know words like “public” and “collective” are anathema to libertarians, but c’mon man!
No, those are body bags full of bodies.
That’s a mass grave, kids.
Im sure it’ll be different wherever you are tho.
It is not my view that we take no measures to arrest the spread of the virus. Common sense societal measures taken to do this (which are needed) has literally nothing to do with the topic of my article or of my comments.
Yet again we have someone responding to what they think I wrote rather than what I actually wrote. Readers, take note.
Hahaha! Love the dog shit analogy!
I probably have a 90% chance of contracting the virus as I work very closely with those who are infected (I’m a nurse), and I plan to write about the experience as well. Should be interesting unless I’m one of those who has no symptoms whatsoever. Tom Hanks and his wife have it and they’ve been writing on Facebook about it – very mild symptoms.
You know, you could be asymptomatic and setting a whole lot of people up to go and do some real cardiovascular damage to their elderly relatives or relatives with underlying heart issues and compromised immune systems. You sure you can’t sit it out for like 2 weeks to not kick that shit off?
This has been great, I decided to really take the Jan-May go time seriously to hunker down at home and work on my business this year, then plan trips the rest of the year. I’ve booked so much travel this week for less than half what I was planning to spend, traveling from June through the end of the year. My google flight alerts all went bonkers. I’m actually going to spend a whole extra month abroad.
This will most likely all be over by June anyway so.. who cares?
Bjorn Andreas Bull-Hansen (he wrote a novel series about vikings) blames globalization and thinks we should be cautious, and this is just the beginning, and can’t depend on governments to take care of us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5EpcXgPTtM
That’s my point. And it will likely be over well before June.
I disagree with Calebs analogy slightly.
#3 look up and decide “hey it’s raining dogshit” and decide to get out of the way for a minute.
Everyone said the same “it’s no big deal” thing after the subprime mortgage market (maybe 1% of all securities) melted down in 08.
Being outcome indifferent does not immunize someone from being unlucky or being lucky or outright stupid or avoiding stupid people over short spans.
The chance it would be over by June is less than 2%, thinking it’s above 2% is not being rational.
I’m all for turning a profit right now, I wish it was easy. For now at least I didn’t loose any money in all that mess by existing stock market by end of Feb. I’m re-entering it next week when I get my accounts upgraded to margin trading. Short everything!
I checked flight prices to HK for Nov 2020, almost the same cost that I paid in Nov 2016. 540 vs 600. With such cheap oil that’s a disgrace.
I should have been more clear. By “over” I meant “no big deal.” The odds are very good it will be no big deal by June.
Caleb wrote:
But you have to admit it would be a crowning irony if you got it and happened to be one of the statistically rare healthy, non-elderly adults who *did* die of it…. After all the great advice you’ve given us all these years (been following you since your early mASF days), it’d be a shame to have it somewhat undercut by the one time the odds went against you. OK, just being facetious here!
It *would* be interesting for people who do have it already to document the course of the disease, as you suggest. Maybe a few real people saying, “Yeah, it’s like the flu, and I’m getting kinda tired of binge-watching Netflix,” might calm down the doomsday panickers. Or not.
Would people stop using Iran, of all places, as an example of the way this virus spreads?? Iran? Really??It’s a terribly run country controlled by religious fanatics who spend government resources trying to make nuclear weapons and wage proxy wars with Saudi Arabia, rather than improve the lot of their own citizens.
Another point: If you’re prone to stressing out over this, STOP WATCHING THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA or news websites or Twitter feeds of people who profit from get clicks for panic. Watching the MSM is like reading the medical dictionary – it’s only gonna scare ya. And if I’m MSNBC or Yahoo News or CBS or whomever, and I can put up a headline like
“500,000 Americans Might Die of COV-19!!! DOOM!!! GLOOM!!! PANIC ACROSS THE NATION!!! You’ve Gotta Panic, Too!!! And Hoard Toilet Paper!!!! (and please keep clicking here)”
why would I settle for “Keep Calm, Don’t Panic, Extent of the Epidemic Can’t Be Predicted Right Now“.
If it bleeds, it leads – as the saying goes. Or maybe more pithily, “Panic sells.”
Director at my company called an emergency Skype meeting late Friday PM to lay out the company’s new COVID-19 plan…. which includes a ban on face to face meetings among employees! Now, at the time we had exactly 17 cases of COV-19 in the ENTIRE STATE, 15 of whom had all gone on the same cruise in Egypt a few weeks ago.
Now Company management has escalated to DefCon 4, telling people to Clorox wipe themselves down and douse themselves in sanitizer every 14 seconds. Problem is, IF this outbreak goes on for a while, we’re gonna use up all those supplies, which can’t be had for love nor money anywhere right now. What happens if one or two employees does come down with the thing?
And I am speaking as a fairly germophobic person who pretty much practices all the “social distancing” stuff and other recommended precautions already because I don’t like wasting time being sick. If I think it’s gone too far…..
One thing I’m focused on: After the 2008-09 Great Recession, I totally failed to cash in on the bull market. THIS time I wanna take advantage of it. Make some moolah, then get my investments back into something far less volatile than the silly, human-emotion-driven stock market.
Oh yeah, that 2% Rule…. I’m a word guy, so math is not my wheelhouse. I can’t say how this thing proves out statistically to 12 decimal places. My view is that Caleb offers a sensible rule of thumb: If the realistic likelihood of something happening to you is very low, don’t worry about it. Period.
You will get your face ripped off by margin calls on counter rallies like the one that happened in the last hour on Friday.
I agree with your sentiment about the market direction, but encourage you to not do that particular strategy unless you’re a degenerate gambler who doesn’t mind going broke.
Good point. I’d like to see how Caleb would reply to this? I think #2 is better than #1, obviously, but this #3 is the best approach even if it takes some of your daily focus.
About the ”purposefully getting the virus and doing vlog” idea, WTF? Even if the chance to die is under 2%, there’s still a chance and what if you get unlucky? The risk/reward is extremely off here.
Not to mention even if you recovered, are you sure that your lung wouldn’t be somehow PERMANENTLY damaged?? It’s an ”acute respiratory disease”, not just flu and your lung might take a long-term hit due to it, thus definitely affect your LONG-TERM HAPPINESS.
I really don’t understand Caleb’s thought process on this. It just doesn’t sound right. An Alpha 2.0 should devote his focus on meaningful things. However, that doesn’t mean being reckless and ignorant.
Look up “acute” in the dictionary.
a·cute
/əˈkyo͞ot/
Learn to pronounce
adjective
1.
(of a bad, difficult, or unwelcome situation or phenomenon) present or experienced to a severe or intense degree.
I was wondering…is it wrong to expect the entire US to be quarantined like Italy etc until the end of summer? Cuz it looks like that’s where we are heading lol.
This is like preparing for a hurricane that may or may not hit. It’s BEYOND retarded LMAO, not to mention an abject and direct violation of human rights.
Yes, let’s shut everything down so that people who work for a living are forced to take time off so they can get evicted and have their homes foreclosed. Great solution, governments.
The way some of these giant governments have addressed this PROVEN harmless virus makes me want to start a fucking Coup.
This proves you’re clueless on decision theory.
And it’s good that you can’t. People who don’t know how to deal with probabilities should have as little power as possible.
https://www.sciencealert.com/even-those-who-recover-from-corona-can-be-left-gasping-for-breath-afterwards
Cause, you know, it’s just the flu.
2% problems and all. You know.
I’m predicting that it will probably not end until June ends. And yes this means the impending quarantine/curfews.
No, I don’t want it to happen but I’m assuming that it will. The US is pretty much the same as Europe at this point only it operates on even more fear. In Italy the quarantine period is two weeks. That’s gonna be extended just watch.
Here in the US? I’m guessing a minimum of 3 months (April until July). Maybe even the rest of the year if the news outlets etc can get away with scaring enough people into thinking “ZOMG the corona virus will KILL US ALL!!!!!” Its sad, pathetic, unnecessary and we really should all be allowed to continue living our lives.
But no, let’s have people who supposedly know what’s best for us tell us how to live our lives.
One thing that’s gonna come out of this is that there is gonna be A LOT of unemployment and homeless. The unemployment rate by the end of the year is gonna likely jump to 33%.
No one is more obsessed about “protecting the people from themselves at their own expense” than the US.
Again, I’m likely exaggerating but in this age where we’re more than happy to give Statists our rights without any question, it might happen. And probably will in some aspect.
What do you mean? I haven’t been given a hard and fast date on when everything is gonna shut down. So yes it is like preparing for something that may not happen.
BD, this is actually besides the point of what all virologists are warning us about. As a strong man, you won’t die. The problem is that you may go to the bakery or supermarket, infect the nurse who is also shopping there, or a random person who will visit his/her 86 year old dad the same evening. Social distancing (stay in your home) is needed in order to prevent that too many weak people get infected at the same time.
Anyway, I bought the Alpha 2.0 and I am still confused about the best investing strategy. Most advice I read is “buy and hold long term”, also for ETF’s. You mentioned you won’t plan to hold ETF’s long term (eg 10 years). Could you explain what you would do, and make it a bit more concrete?
PS. I live in Europe, but also here we buy a lot of American stock (as the rest of the world seems to follow American economy anyway: if it goes down in the USA, many other countries will follow).
That’s isn’t what you’re doing. You’re screaming “it’s raining dogshit everybody aahhhhh!!!!” while pointing at the all the dogshit and working yourself and others into a frenzy while I’m having a great time, indoors, far away from the dogshit, making money and fucking Margot Robbie.
Where have I recommended being reckless?
I’m not recommending against taking common-sense precautions. I’m recommending to stay rational, take actions based on real stats and numbers rather than the news and social media, and not freak the fuck out.
<BD hits PASTE>
I’m not recommending against taking common-sense precautions. I’m recommending to stay rational, take actions based on real stats and numbers rather than the news and social media, and not freak the fuck out.
You’d have to be more clear about which ETFs I was referring to. On the overall I hate American stocks for numerous reasons (and you can now see why; look at all the people who have lost money in the stock market while I have lost exactly zero in American stocks since I didn’t have any) thus if you were to invest in American stocks you would only do so for the short or medium term as the market is on a temporary upswing.
International stocks / ETFs are a different story.
Correct (though Europe will collapse before the USA does). I still won’t purchase any American stocks for the long-term. (Though I make get some index funds if the Dow drops below 16K, which it looks like it may do, but that will be a short-term play.)
Uh huh. For now.
See y’all in 90 days!
With your 2% reasoning you should NOT bother wearing a seatbelt while driving or let alone having a life vest in an plane.
But now, this is not how you mean it. You should not worry about it, but you should still prepare for it.
Same shit happens with corona right now. Also if governments would do nothing about it People may freak out even more. So its rational.
I want to clarify my personal concerns for this scare.
I’m not as afraid of what the Corona virus can do to me so much as the host of inconveniences and unemployment that is gonna result from all the stupid precautions as well as our governments being able to force their hand and tell us how we should live our lives under the guise of “protecting us” when I know they are not.
The virus itself is something I’d be able to survive if I ever caught it. It’s just another version of the flu really. I think a lot of people can survive it.
I’m afraid of my livelihood being taken from me than anything else; less people to write for, can’t deliver food from Bite Squad, less hours at the golf course I work at, etc.
It’s nearly paralyzing for someone like me who really sucks at finances in the first place. Difficult for me not to panic or freak out. I don’t mind if all my favorite bars and food joints close for half a year but if I can’t deliver stuff from those bars and food joints that’s one form of income gone. If I can’t work at the golf course that I recently got a job at that’s another form of income gone. If companies want to cut marketing costs, that’s another form of income gone.
If one or two of those income streams goes that’s whatevs. Don’t care about that. But all three of my income streams are at stake here. For me, at least.
If I had three or so months of expenses socked away, I would just shrug at this and take three months off of life but its really difficult for me to save money cuz I’m still paying off college debt. Its difficult enough for me to save up three months worth of stuff for my apartment in case I can’t get them when all the lockdowns take place.
I hate panicking about all this shit but I haven’t dealt with anything like this before. It isn’t like hurricane season where I know I need to store up a weeks or so worth of food and be ready to take a whole week off life at some point between July and November. This is different.
And speaking of that, I’m super glad this isn’t happening during hurricane season. That would be really, really bad.
Incorrect. The odds I’m going to get in car accident eventually is over 2%. (I’ve already been in two.) Therefore I wear my seatbelt.
Correct. Common sense precautions do not equal being irrational and freaking out like some others are in this thread.
To repeat for the fourth time (sigh) I never said anywhere that governments or society “do nothing.” Obviously that would be fundamentally irrational therefore that is obviously not my position.
For the third time (sigh) you guys need to respond to things I have actually stated, not things you think I’ve said, feel I’ve said, or things you’re trying to strawman.
Let me interrupt you for a second, and point out your concerns aren’t a primary cause (the virus) but a secondary issue (the rest of it).
I got a broadcast telephone call from a congressman and the public health director of the county I live in last night. The virus clears in a week. No big, BUT:
The secondary effect in a big percentage of cases is viral pneumonia that doesn’t clear. Same as AIDS, it’s not the HIV that kills you, it’s the viral pneumonia, which I got my last semester in college. It was unfun, took a solid six months to mostly recover from, and left me with radically reduced lung capacity. I had a mild case.
Caleb writes (and I concur) about establishing businesses that are dissimilar and serve different business niches (B2B vs B2C), but all of them and with all of their separation, it’s going to be impossible to decouple them from the shared secondary effects.
The last recession my household had four (!) distinct businesses serving four different clients. None of them were remotely related to subprime mortgages, and all of them were shellacked by secondary effects its explosion.
Your customers lose 60% of your business, your business is gonna suffer. Most businesses struggle to get their expenses behind their revenues in good times. The average business has 27 days worth of working capital. What happens to your drop ship business when the vendor and all their competitors are disrupted for eight weeks? Is it prudent to stockpile a years worth of working capital?
I recently started a unsexy B2C business that is recession proof (it’s targeted at people of means who always have money) but it’s location dependent and not scalable.
It’s a trade off I’m willing to take because it allows me the life I want and be decoupled from the larger economy.
Wow what a thread. This has been a truly enlightening experience for me (not this thread. The whole Coronavirus madness). I’ve been so surprised at who out of my friends are obviously living with a lot more fear and a lot more irrational than I realized. But this thread has been a classic example of it. You guys arguing with BD are so funny. Lie in bed worrying about stupid shit that will never happen to you much???? haha
You don’t have too BD. Tom Hanks and his wife just did it for you. Minor symptoms, quarantined for a bit. Released now without any issues at all.
Although this thing seems to spread faster and easier than the Flu for various reasons. I really don’t think it is as bad as the Flu if you catch it. I had the real Flu at 26 when I was super fit and healthy. Was in bed for 7+ days and sicker than I’ve ever been in my life. Really thought I was going to die. This one doesn’t seem to hit healthy people anywhere near as hard as real Influenza.
My dude, the secondary issues ARE the primary issues in this case.
If I am confirmed for this illness, I’m gonna feel like shit for awhile. That’s literally what’s gonna happen to me judging from all the info I have dug up. I’m not old, my immune system is very powerful, I’m in good health, so I’m good.
It’ll suck, but whatever I can manage. Just a minor inconvenience. There are 140 confirmed cases in the state where I live. I’m gonna fucking live my life, there’s nothing out there that’s gonna hurt me.
If there were 1.4 million confirmed cases then sure, now I’m gonna do all I can to avoid getting infected because the chances are way higher.
And look, if I had the money, best believe I’d stay in the house and take time off life until September, which is when things will get back to normal in all likelihood. In fact that is the biggest lesson I’m gonna take from this: I suck at keeping the money I make and I need to force myself to be able to have six months worth of expenses ready when I need it.
But I currently I don’t.
I need to work for a living and because I’ve been such a dumbass my whole life, I’m living paycheck to paycheck.
Many others are like this too.
The unemployment rate is probably going to be at all time highs (at least 33%) after September. To me that is WAY more dangerous than the virus itself. Do you not agree?
Case in point: Bars and restaurants are gonna be closing where I live until May. Are people who work at those places gonna be able to take that kind of time off?
I’m worried about that much more than a handful of people who are going to get sick and die cuz their immune system sucks.
To quote Littlefinger from Game of Thrones “Chaos isn’t a pit, chaos is a ladder”. Listen to Blackdragon and start your businesses while the world is going crazy. Since there is a huge lockdown, having an online business is a sane way to use your time before the status quo returns. I have a question for Blackdragon. Should I start a frugal, minimalist, and prepper business so people can be calm, rational, and ready for more pandemics in the future?
You don’t have to but sure, it’s a growing trend with or without these false disasters.
Short Question to BD: How can I keep fucking at east 2 cute/hot women per week during the covid-19 lockdowns?
More context:
I have a rotation of 5 women in my current city. I normally meet each of them once almost every week.
Now my city has a partial lockdown, still allowed to go out of the home but not allowed to go in or out of the city and some social distancing measures such as closure of theaters, religious gatherings and any gathering of more than 10 people.
As a result, only 1 woman agreed/was able to meet this week. And I guess soon when complete lockdown is in effect, zero woman will meet.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
This study explains that a minimum of 3 months ‘Wuhan Style’ complete lockdown is necessary, and that ideally lockdowns should last up to 18 months, or until a vaccine is available and applied to the population. Wuhan for instance is still under complete lockdown after almost 2 months.
Full Question to BD: (I think I am not the only one here who will be facing this issue)
How do you suggest dealing with this occurence where I will be probably sexless for much more than 2 weeks (and all the problems that it causes to men as you explained)? Should I just accept that I won’t fuck anyone for months and just masturbate to porn like a mgtow, or should I increase focus and energy on women and ensure that I still fuck at least 2 women every week, or so, and if so, how?
Last but not least: how can I take advantage of a covid-19 lockdown to fuck even hotter and sexier women than those in my current normal rotation?
I’ll discuss that next week.
So, are you ready to admit you were wrong about this article, or should we give it another week and check in?
Hilarious. At some point you will have to acknowledge that this statement was wildly inaccurate. The question is will you admit it now, or wait until it gets straight up embarrassing?
Hey joelsuf – I’m no expert of many of these items you discussed, but I certainly wish you the best and do believe/hope that there good opportunities to be found.
I hear you – best wishes with all the issues you are discussing. I think 2020 has a lot of challenges in store, but also a lot of opportunities. I’m trying to make the best of this, though I realize there is potential for serious downsides. Nonetheless, it is a good time to start planning for the future.
Good to hear and best wishes with this as well.
That is a significant challenge. I’m not an expert of this, but maybe the business opportunities are going to be a little be more out of the box (and will probably take some hustling to make happen more quickly)?
Location independent AM2.0 income streams (and a 2nd passport) are looking even better than they already looked. Again best wishes to you and everyone else as well.
—————————–
This just came out – I just read through it. I’m not an expert on the subject, but it’s seems like the scenarios they are discussing might be distinctly possible set of “bad-case” scenarios. We’ll have more info in a week – I hope for an increase in good news and speedy recoveries to individuals and countries, but the analytical portion of my brain is also considering a range of possible scenarios, and trying to plan accordingly for the wide range of more probable possibilities.
My hope is that this behaves more like a seasonal flu and recedes in the springtime, though I realize, again, that I’m not an expert, and there are other potential outcomes.
won’t kill you if you are a healthy male but can leave lasting damage on your lungs, and cytokine storms, which is basically your immune system overreacting and destroying your lung tissue.
Unlike influenza, there hasn’t really been a large-scale outbreak of a coronavirus. Scientists expect that we will see these type of outbreaks more often. As we built more resistance to them, they will be less disruptive to the normal state of things.
The chance that eventually you’ll contract a coronavirus (whether it’s COVID-19 or a different one) is likely. An Alpha Male 2.0 accepts this and does whatever he can to minimize the damage.
Financially, this would be having multiple income streams. Physically, this would be training your lungs and building your immune system so that when you do get the virus, chances are it will be just a slight inconvenience.
Good thing is that you can do both with just training 5-10 minutes a day so easy to include in your daily exercise regimen. Also, take cold showers daily to kickstart your day and blast your immune system to build it up.
There is actually a whole science behind breath training. This Danish freediver held his breath for 22 minutes underwater and can regulate his heart rate to go from 100 heartbeats per minute to 35 heartbeats per minute. So if you feel like shit because your business empire is under siege, take a breath and stay focused.
His book is now available for free –
https://www.breatheology.com/free-ebook-covid-19/
What few 9/11 and Global Warming left-overs there were for citizens are now being swept up by COVID-19. Get ready for forced…everything. Your bodily integrity, no longer yours. Your right to assemble, no longer yours. Your right to work a job and earn a living, no longer yours. Caleb, I would accelerate my escape timetable were I you. The U.S. is going to become a very dangerous place for anyone who cannot or will not conform.
Definition of living your life in the U.S.; comply with all edicts! You wouldn’t want to start another corona panic, would you?
Notice how they talk about sick people now- person at large, must be locked down, stay away from each other. As if we don’t already come into contact with millions of germs each and everyday already.
This panic is contrived. This is no longer a medical epidemic, this is an economic/political pandemic. The biggest power grab since possibly the Great Depression. Wish with all my heart I was already gone from this place.
My prediction for the future: mandatory mass surveillance, permanent restrictions on size of gatherings, mandatory health checks at building entrances, forced vaccinations, forced quarantines, zero privacy, zero control over healthcare decisions. And that is just if all is well in a few months. Oh, and guns are gone, too. As if that even matters anymore.
There going to be huge opportunities for you entrepreneur types out there. Good luck!
You know I love all your stuff (except the blackjack .. ), but this statement is way off the mark.
https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696
With the way many Americans are treating this virus and how slow the government has been to react this thing won’t be over by June and certainly won’t be forgotten about a couple of years from now.
I bet on sport for a living and my twitter feed is full of professional gamblers. People that deal with risk and probability every day. There’s not a single one of them that’s downplaying the situation we find ourselves in.
I always admit when I’m wrong, because I’m rational. I was officially wrong when I said nothing much will happen. I was not wrong when everything else in that statement: a statistically minuscule number of people are going to die, in a year or two no one is going to give a shit about any of this, and most (not all, but most) of the hysteria (not precautions, but hysteria) you’re now seeing will be for no reason. Watch.
Answer this question: What percentage of people who get the virus, including the unknown thousands who now have it who have no symptoms, end up with serious and lasting lung damage? Answer that question with a specific and accurate number, then you’ll more understand the point I’m making.
An Alpha Male 2.0 takes common-sense precautions to avoid problems. I’m not shaking people’s hands, I’ve cut out all non-essential travel and excursions from my home (but I’m still going where I please), I’m washing my hands more often, wiping down things with alcohol wipes, and so on.
But he doesn’t lose his shit about body bags, millions of dead people piling up in hospitals, taking pictures of empty shore shelves and posting them on social media, being terrified if he sees someone cough, and so on.
People have lost their minds. They have lost perspective and have forgotten that there’s a difference between hysteria and common sense precautions.
Already did. My plan was to leave in 2025. Instead I’m outta here early next year.
The USA went insane long before the coronavirus. (Tantrum Trump’s administration is now talking about UBI just like a bunch of Bernie Sanders socialists. Jesus. Get me the FUCK outta here!)
You’re not being rational either. The US government is too incompetent to do most of what you’re saying. It’s also likely to go bankrupt before things get that bad.
It was accurate when said it a few days ago. Always check the date of any of my articles at the bottom of the article as well as the dates on my comments when you disagree with something I say regarding a current event.
I also said in this thread that your 2% odds of catching it could increase. And if it does (and has in certain areas), THEN it would be prudent to take precautions, which I am now doing. See how this works?
But I’m still not freaking out. I’m still conducting business and going places if needed with no fear.
Read what I said in my comments above. I said it would probably be no big deal by June; I didn’t mean to say it would be “over.” But I admit that’s a guess on my part and I could be wrong.
Completely disagree and you will be wrong. I’d bet anyone $10,000 on it right now. Of course people won’t literally “forget” about it but normal Americans discarded fucking 9/11 from the national discourse within about two years. They will “forget” about this even faster. Virtually no one will be talking about this by the summer of 2022. They’ll be onto the next crisis or Kardashian shiny object. Just watch.
I‘m curios to hear from guys who are in sarging mode right now but facing changes due to corona.
Do you experience any negative effects where you live? Did you make any changes to your strategy for bringing new women into your life?
For example:
How do you handle closed 1st date locations like bars and coffee shops?
Do you experience less scheduled dates?
Do you experience more cancelations or flakes?
For better context, I‘m living in Northern Germany and using Online Dating for scheduling dates with new women. Right now, I‘m facing mostly logistical problems. Like most public places, all bars and pubs are closed here. Some coffee shops are still open but only until 6 pm and with several restrictions (number of guests, distance between tables etc.). I expect more women to cancel or reject dates due to feeling symptoms or being very cautious, soon.
Bottom line: While I hate to consider putting my women goals on pause, I’m concerned about wasting my time, energy and money. Any thoughts on this?
Yes, I understand your point as the fatality rate for your average healthy male is under 2% and elderly people or people with pre-existing conditions are most at risk – similar to influenza.
The thing is that these coronaviruses are going to become more frequent, like influenza. Some will be worse than others.
Preparing yourself by doing 10-15 minute breath training to increase your vital lung capacity and flexibility means you can just flip off these viruses like a boss.
The only exception are the under 2% circumstances where your immune system goes haywire. And then again, if you combine breath training with some breath holding, you build up your immune resistance so the likeliness of it tripping balls go down dramatically.
Plus, Caleb, you may want to give breath training a try as conscious breathing, building a better breathing pattern and visualization increases the oxygen transport efficiency in your body, leading to better muscle building, more fat burning etc. It may be the solution to your problem described in your Where I have Failed With My Weight post.
I agree. We’re seeing the start of it.
This is my prediction for the future as well for the entire western world. Won’t be soon, but the US and Europe will be dealing with that right before the 2030s begin.
I agree with this too, its funny how quickly we forget stuff. Here’s the crazy part: H1N1 was even worse than this and nothing really happened.
What do you think the difference between these is, BD? I’m extending those by three months. No big deal by September (when all the stuff will open again), over by December.
Same here. I’d argue it’s going to be a newer form of the Great Depression. The unemployment rate alone is going to jump to at least 33%. The entire entertainment/hospitality industry will collapse. If there wasn’t an incentive to make a whole bunch of money and move…
Its pretty much been like that for a pretty long time 🙁
I think they are. Trouble is, I am almost totally clueless when it comes to business and money related stuff…have been my whole life. The only strategy I really use is “work longer” but that’s not gonna help. Being anxious about money all the time doesn’t help either. It’s like if you told me to disarm an atomic bomb: I don’t want to blow everything up so I leave it alone and hope that it goes away.
Sadly enough, I could use a hookup like that now lol. But yeah UBI is not a good idea in the long term at all.
“Bottom line: While I hate to consider putting my women goals on pause, I’m concerned about wasting my time, energy and money. Any thoughts on this?”
I got “stuck” here in Medellín, Colombia (by choice, more or less opting to miss a return flight to Washington, D.C. on March 15th). So far, I have been able to get dates planned and had sex/expect to have sex with a certain type of girl. It’s a little different game here in Colombia where sugar daddy and provider game bears significant fruit for middle-aged men like myself. Continuing, the type of girl who is open to going out during this silliness is 1) more of the young, carefree party girl type (these are my favorite type of girl anyway) 2) someone I have a history with (aka banged before). The types who are NOT open to spending time seem to be 1) single mothers (some are super sexy, hate missing out on banging them) 2) women who are too (in my opinion) cerebrally-inclined. Good luck out there.
by Rachel Thompson
https://mashable.com/article/online-dating-coronavirus-social-distancing/
This is the kind of bullshit attention whoring mentality I am facing right now, even from women in my normal rotation who won’t meet anymore now.
by Rachel Thompson
PUKE!
As I keep saying, the major problems we’re all going to suffer through are the result of society reacting to the virus, not the virus itself. This virus is a pussy compared to the last few we’ve wrestled with.
If by late June all the schools, restaurants, and similar businesses are completely shut down, and it’s still hard to get basics like toilet paper, popular TV shows are still being filmed in people’s houses, the Dow is below 16K, borders are still closed all over the world, etc, etc, then it will still be a “big deal.”
If by then most schools and similar businesses have resumed, borders are opening up, but people are still on edge and some old people are still dying, the it’s not a “big deal” anymore but it’s still a problem.
The big issue are all these shutdowns/business closures and closed borders. The world economy (outside of most Alpha Male 2.0s) is going to take a massive hit if this continues. And it might happen… hopefully. Looks like I will be buying a lot of real estate this year. Finally!
Entirely possible. Hard to predict at this point.
My best guess is that in a few weeks governments, companies, and people are going to be so exasperated of being scared and losing mountains of money that they will just say “Fuck it!” and will just start opening things back up again even if warned against doing so. But that’s just a guess.
This is the issue. They’ll probably keep things locked down because of how afraid everyone is, but really they need a controlled re-integration back to normalcy within 2-4 weeks (with plenty of tests available!) or else we’ll just have another huge wave of illnesses when they open everything back up again. There isn’t enough immunity and vaccines aren’t going to be available for a while, but many more people will suffer from a tanked economy than will suffer from this virus.
I hope you’re right. Cuz this is insane and its just unsettling. Might lose all my sources of income from it and that scares me to where I’m having chest pains and losing sleep and stuff.
Oh yeah. If everything remains shut down until September (worst case scenario, which is my prediction), suicide rates are going to get so high that it will eclipse heart disease as the number one cause of death in the US. Unemployment rate will also be close to 50% or some crazy psycho number like that.
Seriously! Its frustrating and scary to witness the world stop because of something like this. It isn’t like this is the black death or something. Holy christ.
Caleb to your point…
“My best guess is that in a few weeks governments, companies, and people are going to be so exasperated of being scared and losing mountains of money that they will just say “Fuck it!” and will just start opening things back up again even if warned against doing so.”
I would have to agree. They can’t keep things shuttered for too long otherwise the results would be disastrous for the economy which will cause way more long term harm. I personally know some folks who are already hurting bad from this financially and its just begun. Some are in danger of losing their job, some might lose their small business.
Honestly, and I know this isn’t a popular opinion, I say after a couple weeks, let the damn thing run it’s course. Yes some people will die like they do every year from similar diseases. More will die if you have intense panic in the streets if things really tank big time. You’ll see some truly unhinged behavior and violence.
That’s it. Shutting down the world for months on end will cause far more death and pain than the coronavirus.
To be clear, society needs to take measures to flatten the curve and I’m not against these measures.
The issue is how long they last.
Yes, I’ve been thinking about exactly that. I’m not quite there yet, but I’m slowly moving in that direction. I’m going to see exactly how long the society intends on shutting down the entire world economy, thereby destroying millions if not billions of financial lives. Right now I think these precautions are warranted and I agree with most of them. But several weeks/months from now I have a feeling I won’t feel that way.
*Points to myself*
That’s exactly my case and I know I’m not the only one. I know at least five people who have lost their jobs from this, and someone I share my apartment with just got evicted (we rent out the individual rooms).
I can go two months without income (if push comes to shove I’ll just pay rent and not have a phone or car insurance). Can put the rent on my credit card lol. After that I will either need to move somehow. Back to my folks’ place, on one of my buddies’ couches, who knows?
This makes me think: How is someone gonna be forced to move out if the entire planet if placed on house arrest? lol
Like I said in another comment, if this truly persists until September (which is still my prediction), it won’t be the corona virus we’ll have to worry about it, will be skyrocketing suicide rates from people who literally can’t live cuz they can’t pay for stuff. Unemployment rate of over half as well. Oh yeah and 1 in 3 will probably be homeless since so many Americans live paycheck to paycheck like I sadly do.
I do agree with what BD says here:
The question is how long is too long? If everything was put on hold until April or something that’s cool. Until May? Fine, whatever. But it looks like it will be waaaaaay longer before things go back to normal and that is not gonna work.
This stuff makes me feel a combination of frustrated and anxious. Not a good place to be. Very paralyzing.
I respect you more for saying this.
Looking back on the lockdown, I should probably at least have tried to get most women to not go out of the city to visit their family, or tell them to visit them in advance so that they’re not trapped there in their province with their old folks.
For you guys who rely on MLTRs anf FBs, think about it, maybe it’s worth talking about it with them long before any type of lockdown is acted. I am in Asia though they are super family focused compared to the west, so maybe it’s not as much as an issue in the west, maybe most women won’t go visit their families.
But then, it’s still unclear to me: once a total lockdown is in effect, even if they are in the city they may just not be allowed, by law enforced by fines, to leave their home and come fuck you.
You’re probably better off suspending all your bill payments right now, including rent, and for as long as possible, since it’s very possible that some level of government passes some law to protect people who can’t pay their rent or bills. This is already what is happening in Europe. They are allowing to suspend/delay bills payments including rent in some way or another.
Plus, getting someone actually evicted during a lock-down is going to be a challenge. Also, good luck finding a new tenant. A sensible landlord would come to some understanding as opposed to kicking someone out and then having the apartment sit empty.
Yes and no. I am confident that the powers that be will not waste a good crisis. In the papers over here pundits are pushed to the front that praise Asian countries for their collectivist measures, and hate on European individualism and I am pretty sure that the EU is busy writing all kinds of new “corona” laws that in reality will restrict freedom and increase regulations, which benefits multinationals. But that’s old news.
On the other hand, the move from the French government to guarantee water and electricity even if citizens can’t pay their bills, and the temporary law to not get kicked out of your rental apartment for 60 days of non-payment, are not necessarily out of altruism, but to prevent 1/3 of France joining the Yellow Vest movement. You can repeatedly club down 1-2% of your population, but 33% may become a bit more iffy until the EUSSR is reality.
In the end, big governments are incredibly wasteful and restricting freedom and social mobility means people lose hope in the system. An ever smaller middle class has to hold up tax dodging multinationals and welfare state.
If the corona madness is teaching us anything, it is pointing out to the masses that mass centralization, globalism and consumerism has some real drawbacks and makes one vulnerable. Nations and communities should have the ability to be self-sufficient and detach – which is obviously a problem with the current global supply chain.
Ok, you specifically called me out for not reading you, when I mentioned a travel ban:
What I was thinking of when I listed the Coronavirus as likely to cause you problems was this:
It’s statements like that which a lot of us were reacting to. You hadn’t grasped the exponential growth of the virus and where it was heading. The shutdowns were pretty predictable at the time you wrote this article.
I see you are now no longer traveling, and now think the coronavirus is worse than you initially though. But, there’s still one thing you haven’t really addressed. Health system overwhelm:
About 10% of cases need a ventilator to survive. Without it, they die. There are 7.6 billion people on the planet. If 30% of people got the virus in a short period, then 2.3 billion people would be sick. Meaning roughly 230 million people would just die for lack of a ventilator.
Quite possibly more. Currently about 20-40% of cases need hospitalization. Without that, some of them would die too.
Further, people take 3-6 weeks to either die or recover. That means hospitals are nothing but coronavirus treatment centers for 3-6 weeks. So all the life saving stuff that hospitals normally do is out of commission for 3-6 weeks. How much excess mortality would we see from people with heart attacks, trauma, cancer, etc in that time?
THAT is why governments are locking down society. This chain first happened in Wuhan, next in Lombardy, with numbers *well* below 30% of the population infected. Your “30% infected tomorrow” scenario could well be 250-500 million dead overnight.
Personally I’m doing fine. I already work from home, it hasn’t been a huge change in my lifestyle. I’m not personally worried, though I am for my parents. But I was worried by the prospect of a health system overwhelm that would have happened without a shutdown.
I’m hoping we learn from what South Korea and Taiwan have done and eventually get this under control with more testing and isolation.
That’s gonna be the plan after I pay for April’s stuff. I just need to take this day by day and save every dollar I make.
Who cares in you get corona virus? The Problem is when our doctors get it. Imagine 10-20% wiped out because we don’t know anything about this thing
The most I’m pissed that my gym in Philadelphia is shutdown, and it’s probably going to be closed until the end of the year, don’t get your hopes high that stuff opens up by September. I should have bought not just one supply of water like BD suggests but also barbels and a power rack.
I never said that I was guaranteed to not have my Europe flights shut down. I figured it was a possibility and made a Plan B in case it happened, which it did. No prob, I just executed Plan B. I always hedge my bets.
That doesn’t change anything I said though; if those flights had not been shut down I would have had an unusually pleasant experience traveling to Europe and I would have enjoyed it. I know this for a fact since that’s what happened on my recent trip to LA. It was amazing and I was very happy (no one at the airport, near-empty plane, easy car travel to the hotel, no traffic, etc).
Incorrect. That argument has already been made in this thread and it’s wrong. Thousands if not millions of people already have the coronavirus (and don’t have it yet but will get it) who will never be reported because their symptoms are zero or mild. This drives all these scary ratios about hospitalization artificially higher. The real number you quoted is no where near 10%, but instead is a fraction of that.
This is what hysteria does. It makes people overly frightened.
I never said governments shouldn’t lock down society. I think they should… for a while.
The WHO report in China found basically no cases they hadn’t already traced. They tested 320,000 people in Guangdung province.
Do you have any basis for the claim that the Chinese stats are wrong? Korea found a similar mortality and percent of critical cases, and they’ve done the most testing and contact tracing outside China.
True, I guess you said you were flying in two weeks from the time of the article. Would you have flown at the time you wrote it? If not, then I retract the point. I had taken you to mean you thought trips to Europe were sensible at the time. (As I write this a lot of people from my country are now stranded abroad due to cancellations and lockdowns, with their health insurance cancelled, as insurers view this as a known risk).
The head of the WHO mission to China.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china
I don’t believe everything will be shut down for months. Far from it.
I think people are on board with the concept of staying home as much as possible for 2 weeks because most people get the “flatten the curve” concept.
I firmly believe that once the two weeks are up (1st week of April) that will be the end of most people staying home.
Some businesses may not make it because of the 2 weeks of lost income but most will.
It’s 2 weeks.. 2 weeks of deliberate stoppage.. The US economy will survive this. There are shitloads of extremely rich Americans. I know plenty. They’ll continue to be the backbone and the folks who are still struggling to make it will still be able to work their way up in the world assuming they keep at it.
This will knock the lower income folks back some for sure but we all have setbacks.
We’ll be fine.
If the virus is still gaining in 2 weeks than it is what it is but most people and businesses will be back at it in 2 weeks regardless.
They’ll work on social distancing and improve cleanliness of their businesses etc. Some will probably even advertise how clean they keep their place etc to encourage traffic.
We’ll be fine.
You’ve got to be kidding. Yes. The Chinese government lies about all kinds of things all the time (like our government does, but the Chinese government is even worse because their numbers are unchallenged by their populace) and I never take any numbers they state at 100% face value. I’ve said that before.
Even if they’re not lying, that means they tested 320K people out of a province of 12 million. Talk about a 2% Rule! Did they test all 12 million people then? See my point?
I don’t want to go round and round arguing these numbers though; I’ve made my point and you’re free to disagree. If you want to believe that 10% of literally everyone in the universe who gets the coronavirus must to be hooked up to a ventilator machine, feel free to believe that.
Correct. I was planning on being in E. Europe for a month. I was willing to go, and I already discussed with Pink Firefly the distinct possibly that I would be stranded over there for an additional month, perhaps even longer. Cool with me. I’m an Alpha Male 2.0 which means I’m location independent. Spending 2-3 months in E. Europe, even in a state of quarantine, would have been perfectly fine with me.
See what I mean by not being scared? People need to stop being pussies and have more balls.
Sensible for the Alpha Male 2.0, yes. Sensible for the typical person? Probably not, but the typical person probably wasn’t planning on spending a month in E. Europe two weeks ago.
Correct.
And many of us will be better off.
Caleb – you keep twisting what I wrote. That was a mass grave full of bodies inside of body bags.
But no fear. This disease only really effects old people.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/younger-adults-are-large-percentage-coronavirus-hospitalizations-united-states-according-new-cdc-data/
Oops – not anymore!
The whole of Europe is blowing up FAST. Are you sure the financial reward (I suppose) outweighs the risk of you getting the virus, or getting stuck?
I honestly don’t think you can be drama-free and stress-free in a quarantined country (like Italy). Martial law = freedom limited. I thought you love your freedom more than anything else?
Doubt it. How did you come up with that number?
Anyway, I don’t know how you can make predictions with any degree of certainty on something that they haven’t been paying attention to. To me that’s a lot like you giving advice on fitness (which you don’t do, and rightfully so).
You did say forget in your article.
That’s a bet that can’t be made. Who’s going to be the judge of whether or not people are still talking about this in 2022?
I (and many others I’m sure) would like to see an article on how to date new woman in a post corona/social distancing world. I could be wrong, but I don’t see the world going back to normal anytime soon.
It was not a prediction with any degree of certainty, just my opinion. If I make a true prediction, I’m usually much more clear about it. “This is my prediction…”
Coming on Monday! Perhaps the first of many.
With the amount of taxes I would save based on my income? Fuck yes.
And to repeat, I wouldn’t care if I got stuck for a while and I wouldn’t care if I got the virus. Pink Firefly would care much more about those things than I would, and I would feel bad for her, but I wouldn’t give a shit.
You’d be completely drama-free if you didn’t have any MLTRs or family members there.
I could be. I’m location independent and introvert and a workaholic. I’ve spent days working on my laptop in hotel rooms for 8 hours a day or more and was perfectly happy.
If you were a high-extrovert or lazy, then that would probably be different.
Haha I wasn’t going to Italy. Fuck that.
None of the countries I was going to visit have declared martial law, nor are likely to (and if they actually do because things get that bad, the USA would likely also, so there would be no difference). Just the usual lockdown shit we’re experiencing right now in the US.
I’m also not talking about living in any of these countries, just spending a few weeks there. You’re acting like I’m trying to move there. I would never live anywhere in Suicidal Europe.
This post and thread are hillarious, BD can you please make an exception and continue to comment on this one after your usual 2 weeks period of not responding anymore? I’d love to read what you and other guys here have to say begining of May 2020.
Here is the problem with too much desire for profit!
It has been known since 2005 that Chloroquine is Effective Against Coronavirus but there isn’t very much profit in it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So, all they would have had to do is ramp up Chloroquine production and none of this would have happened!
Let’s see
young
strong
healthy
rich
smart
Who wins??????????
Chloroquine Known as Effective Against Coronavirus Since 2005
GERARD JULIEN/AFP via Getty
James Delingpole
19 Mar 20203999
I hope you are right and that would be awesome.
I still think things won’t be normal until September of this year at the earliest, September 2021 at the absolute latest. Thing is our government is chomping at the bit to institute martial law and COVID-19 is the perfect opportunity. This video explains:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCcuqLxclXs
But damn I hope you are right. I would be elated if things got back to normal in April.
This I definitely agree with and this crisis has taught me that I need to save TONS of money and stop wasting money on stupid shit, and be able to make consistent solid income from location independent sources.
Speaking of rich Americans, I just got a job at a golf course that one of my bowling buddies manages because driving for Uber/Lyft/Bite Squad was becoming problematic and the place is packed. The tips are good and I don’t think its gonna shut down anytime soon because most of the people who are pulling the strings in all this want to go play golf and they don’t want to give up their main hobby lol.
Yes working at a place like that is location dependent and not Alpha 2 but I don’t care. I get to play for free and I get half off everything on the menu. Gonna feel real nice being able to order a 16 ounce steak and only pay $25 for it 😀 but that’s only if I have LOADS of cash in reserve.
Getting that job was a gift from heaven. My bowling buddy is a great dude for being able to hire me on the spot.
As I was driving home today, I realized that I need to rise above my low frequency behaviors like my frustration and panic. I just need to bust my ass and work 16 hours a day (whether at the course, writing for clients, or Bite Squad), be extremely sanitary, and only stop when 1) I have saved up 3+ months of expenses so I can just chill and take time off life next time this happens or 2) when martial law begins.
So yeah. My emotions of panic can go suck a dick. It’s time to work like crazy. Let’s do this!
Yeah my gym closed too. Was gonna dedicate the spring to heavy weights (cuz running with all this pollen around sucks) and the summer to cardio (cuz running in 90+ degree weather is a true test of conditioning). Guess I’m gonna just go out for cardio and conditioning until September lol.
I think stuff will start opening in September. Society can’t be shut down for too long before everyone gets restless and murders and suicides start eclipsing any and all concern about this.
Same with unemployment. I think the US will start seeing unemployment approach the 30% range, will bite the bullet, and open everything back up.
One major prediction that I’m making is that we are going to see TONS of public health commercials about staying sanitized and social distancing lol. THAT will stick for a long time. Dating is gonna suuuuuuck for awhile LMAO.
Is this over 2 percent?
People aged 20 to 44 make up a significant portion of those hospitalized for the Chinese coronavirus in the United States, according to data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
“Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged 85 years, 26% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years,” the report by the CDC said.
Rumors are national guard nationwide mobilization by Monday. Going to be announced on Sunday. PA is issuing mandatory order to close all businesses that are none life critical. China is telling they had no new cases today in Hubei, of course Xi, we believe you, in truth they are getting ready for a second wave of outbreak.
You want me to keep commenting in this thread for another two months? Uh, no thanks. Plus this won’t be my last post regarding the coronavirus. I have another one going up Monday which I’m sure will piss off more people and provide you with more entertainment and me with more traffic and income.
Read what I said above at least twice about hospitalization percentages being artificially overblown due to a massive amount of unreported cases. % of people tested or reported is radically different than % of people infected.
Yeah yeah, more hand-wringing about shit that may or may not happen. You’re focusing on the wrong things like so many others in this thread.
I think it’s fascinating how some of you guys want to be scared. How about be rational, prudent, clever, and happy instead?
Like I said above, some people just want to be scared (i.e. irrational).
I was excited when I heard Tom Hanks was infected. I was really hoping that Tom Hanks’ quick and painless recovery would be a good example for people to see and realize it was no big deal for the vast majority of people who become infected.
But no, that positive news got buried and people are still freaking the fuck out. Oh well.
LMAO I actually wouldn’t mind that!
*I attempt to go to work*
National guard guy: You can’t leave the house.
Me: Well how am I gonna go to work and pay for this apartment that I’m gonna get booted from then?
*I get evicted, management company goes to get my keys*
National guard guy (to property manager): You can’t be outside the house, one of us will escort you to your house.
Property manager: This dude hasn’t paid his rent so I have to get the keys from him.
National guard guy: Too bad, he has to self-quarantine in order to prevent the virus from spreading.
*I get hungry and want some food so I go to the store*
National guard guy: You can’t go to the store.
Me: How am I supposed to eat then?
National guard guy: You’ll get a ration in an hours. A plate of chicken and vegetables.
Me: Nice! Free food! Just knock on my door when you have it!
Sooooo imagine this multiplied by several million, for possibly 18 months.
Don’t think that’s too realistic lol.
NOW! If the entire US was sheltered in place for a couple weeks starting TODAY and everything went to normal in April, THAT would solve everything. But it isn’t in any government’s interest lol. The main arc here is to get people to forcibly trust the government lol.
I think things are gonna stay like this until September or something. I think places will slowly open up but the capacity will be really low. And its gonna be when the cases spike then start dropping. Think that’s gonna happen soon too. Spike will be in a couple months, then it will drop especially because its gonna start getting hot and the virus tends to die in hotter climates.
Nice, what will it be about?
I’m starting to act that way too. Just trying to work as much as I can so I can stack money! Only things I can’t do at the moment is go to the gym and go to my favorite taco joint during my days off. But I can get food just as good at the golf course I work at and the food is cheaper cuz its half off. I get to golf for free too! Can’t wait to take advantage of all that!
I think things are gonna stay like this, the way things are right now, until June or so. Then the cases are gonna spike, we’ll be under a shelter in place for a couple months, the infected will be treated, and the UBI will come (which I will not touch unless I absolutely have to; I know I’m gonna need to pay that back lol). Then in August, things will be like now for a bit with places having limited hours etc, then in September things will be like they were before. Maybe a little worse since unemployment will be a bit higher about 20%.
But I don’t think the unemployment rate is gonna hit 33% like I thought. It might tho. Either way I think I’m good.
Not keep commenting during 2 months, but something like come back comment one more time on this thread beginning May 2020.
Just to let people know, I proceeded with a trip I’d planned to Amsterdam last week and I’m still here now, in the partial lockdown. Supermarkets and take away retail is still open, transport is still running. People are calm and complying with orders pretty closely.
Interesting, some of my friends here are weed smokers. For the first day of the lockdown, all the dispensaries and coffee shops were shut. But the next day, they reopened, take away only, no more than four customers in the shop at a time to maintain distance. The backtracking came after the authorities saw signs of an emerging black market. They figured that might be more dangerous than well regulated retail trade. I admire the level of realism in that.
I guess I might be stuck here for a few weeks. Most of my work is location independent and I have my computer. I may need to find a room rather than relying on the hospitality of friends if it goes on. It’s an inconvenience, but I knew the risk was there when I left. It seems not to be an impossible challenge.
There you go. That’s the rational-but-positive Alpha Male 2.0 attitude. Well done.
This manufactured crisis has shown me everything Caleb preaches is 110% important in a world where totalitarian government posing as democracies will use a minor crisis (if a crisis at all) built on bad data to completely destroy our way of life. All the moronic hand wringers squeaking about this “crisis” (I fell sick even using that term) clearly don’t know jack shit about how basic arithmetic or statistics works.
I agree with Caleb that most of the people who are scared just want to work themselves up into a tizzy.
This is like #metoo on steroids, except they (the powers that be) found something that appeals to the masses regardless of political affiliation.
How bad this manufactured crisis will get I don’t know. They just declared martial law in Italy (fascisim in Italy? say it ain’t so).
Just to throw some numbers at the retards squawking about this: it is lethal to 0.02% of the population under 50 years old. 1.51% if you are 50-59. You have a 1% chance of dying in a car accident when you get into a car. Dumbasses.
Oh and the numbers above are cooked with massive selection bias.
Only one of two things can currently be true based on how long this thing has been around:
a) it is highly super contagious (PANIC!!!! cause you might get a cold)
b) it is highly lethal (PANIC!!!! you might lick the wrong toilet seat and get SUPER AIDS)
You hand wringers disgust me because you fools will be the death of our liberties (what little of those are left).
lockdown cockblock
Your data is wrong because it’s old. I posted the CDC cite above where it shows it was wrong.
You did see the pictures of the Italian army rolling trucks to pick up bodies for mass cremation that was tweeted out by their Prime Minister, yeah?
Since I posted that link to the mass grave in Iran, things have gotten worse. They are infecting (depending on who you believe, the Health Minister or the Deputy Health Minister) 40-50 per hour and 4-6 are dying. Per hour.
Do you really think it’s different where you are?
Tell you what – just wait eight days. Assuming this exponential increase in infections holds out, you’ll know for sure because the emergency rooms will be overflowing or nothing will have happened. You “it’s just the flu” types will either be spiking the football or it’ll be “oops”.
I sincerely hope I get to eat the mother of all “I was wrong” shit sandwiches over this.
What an interesting thread.
I think sone of the disconnect has to do with the difference between group risks and individual risks. BD’s sentiment is correct that an individual’s risk of dying of COVID -19 at present is low. As rational individuals, we should take sensible precautions (we should have been practicing better hand hygiene even before the epidemic!) and then “Stay calm and carry on.”
The social cost of the epidemic, however, is substantial because of (a) the strain on the healthcare system, which is not set up to handle a sudden influx of critically ill patients, (b) the economic costs of quarantine, which are enormous, and (c) the fact that too many people are doing everything except staying calm and carrying on.
One statistical point about the 2% rule. BD isn’t wrong but the rule warrants a little bit of refinement to be understood. Namely, it matters immensely how many times you roll the dice. For a one-off deal, a 98% chance of a good outcome is good enough that I agree that worry is irrational. However, for a behavior that one repeats daily, a 98% chance of a good outcome each day means that, over a tone frame of 34 days, the odds of an undesirable outcome are about 50/50. For example, a doctor who does a procedure daily with a 2% complication rate therefore has about even odds of producing one in any given month, even though each individual patient he treats only has a 2% chance of being the unlucky one who suffers it.
The same holds true for unprotected sex. The odds are relatively low that, with any one given partner chosen at random from the population at large, you’ll contract an STD. However, if you have unprotected sex with enough partners the odds of contracting one go way up (and of course are even higher if you choose partners from a higher-risk subgroup).
[quote] Your data is wrong because it’s old. I posted the CDC cite above where it shows it was wrong.[/quote]
From your own link:
[quote] The CDC report looked at 4,226 covid-19 cases, with much of the data coming from the outbreaks among older adults in assisted living facilities. As in China, the highest percentage of severe outcomes were among the elderly. About 80 percent of people who died were older than 65.
However, the percentage with more moderate or severe disease requiring hospitalization is more evenly distributed between the old and the young, with 53 percent of those in ICUs and 45 percent of those hospitalized age 65 and older.[/quote]
Where exactly do they disagree with what I said? Do you even understand basic statistics? There are almost 6 times as many people under the age of 65 as there are over age 65 (84.1% vs 14.9%). An even ratio of hospitalized old and young people implies an under representation of people under 65 years of age of 6x. Also notice the deaths still scale logarithmically with age in your own link, which is the only thing that matters at the moment. Considering how socially isolated old people are in the US I wouldn’t be surprised if old people are under represented in the sample for the US hospitalizations.
From the CDC’s own website (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm):
[quote] This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years.[/quote]
The CDC’s own website still agrees wit my stats. Sorry bro.
[quote] You did see the pictures of the Italian army rolling trucks to pick up bodies for mass cremation that was tweeted out by their Prime Minister, yeah?[/quote]
Yes, and what is your point? What the fuck do your appeals to emotional imagery have to do with statistics?
[quote] Since I posted that link to the mass grave in Iran, things have gotten worse. They are infecting (depending on who you believe, the Health Minister or the Deputy Health Minister) 40-50 per hour and 4-6 are dying. Per hour.[/quote]
Ah yes, Iran… that first world nation known for its low percentage of smokers and adherence to science and quality healthcare. Again, you state conjectures that run completely contrary to official statistics provided by the WHO and the CDC.
[quote] Do you really think it’s different where you are?[/quote]
Yes, BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN DIFFERENT IN ITALY, SOUTH KOREA, AND CHINA ITSELF.
[quote] Tell you what – just wait eight days. Assuming this exponential increase in infections holds out, you’ll know for sure because the emergency rooms will be overflowing or nothing will have happened. You “it’s just the flu” types will either be spiking the football or it’ll be “oops”.[/quote]
False dichotomy. The emergency room can be overflowing with old people with co-morbidities. It has nothing to do with you if you are an Alpha 2.0 under the age of 60. That’s assuming the numbers aren’t overstated by a factor of 10 due to adverse sample selection thus far and the need to pump fear porn into the American populace by “Experts”.
Blackdragon, please let us know as soon as you have spent more than 2 weeks without having sex with any other woman than your OLTR, i.e. more than 2 weeks of de facto sexual exclusivity to your OLTR.
Ia affraid this is unfortunately unavoidable at some point of lockdown, unless you make one of your FB move in your house. Which means a defacto upgrade from FB to OLTR. Which means 2 OLTRs, Which means shitloads of dramas. Unless you now have some new real polyamorous Jedi mind tricks to teach us.
OR, you manage to have at least one FB break the law that forbids all of non essential travel out of their home during the lockdown just to come fuck you. And you might be technically breaking the law too in the process of doing so.
As stated above Wuhan is under lockdown for 2 months already now and studies used by governments to base their lockdown policies, indicate the necessity of 3 to 18 months (estimate for mass vaccination rediness) for each lockdown, unless government just entirely gives up on saving the weak and old people of course, or some efficient cure is found before.
Look guys, all kidding aside, where is the silver lining in this:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/coronavirus-projections-us/
To the Covid-19 naysayers, READ the article carefully at face value. How is this not a realistic and balanced article?
LOOK AT THE GRAPH inset in the article and NOW…Imagine the stark realities of a “lockdown” going beyond a few months (not to mention the 12 to 18 months necessary as referenced in this article). This scares the shit out of me. How can this NOT scare anyone else, Blackdragon included? Per the comments above, dating (FB, MLTR, ONS, etc.) could cease to be nonexistent for the foreseeable future and our economy realistically could be thrown into a depression with millions out of work. Really what next level Alpha Male 2.0 is really going to benefit from this unbelievable mayhem with everything shut down for months?
To be true to BD theology the worst case scenario usually never happens (the 2% rule) but just reading this article is enough to put just about anyone into a depression. Call me what you a will, a pussy, whatever….Ironically I’m a true devotee of all of Blackdragons work, all of his writings have had an profound impact on my life, but where to we go from here? I’m looking for the silver lining, anywhere!? This article is fucking brutal.
Guys
go over to the Caleb jones blog and read my history in business part 11
it cheered me up
I agree, the content was very unsettling. But why did you read it? Why don’t you just take things one day at a time, do what is necessary to prevent yourself from getting infected, and do all you can to prepare yourself for any other inconveniences that are gonna come your way? Yes things are gonna suck. They might suck for an obscenely long time. Big deal, just take the information that you get and work with it the best you can.
12 to 18 months of what? Of things just being super inconvenient like now or 12 to 18 months of shelter in place? The article didn’t mention that. It was very indirect in its language.
Look if things were super inconvenient like they are now for 12 to 18 months I wouldn’t really mind. Yeah it would suck that I couldn’t bowl or go to the gym (although I’d still be able to play golf, golf courses haven’t closed, hmm wonder why that is lol), but I would make a straight up killing delivering for bite squad. I’d still be able to earn a living and that’s all I need, I don’t care how inconvenient things get.
Yes, if it actually said “The entire world will have a shelter in place for 12 to 18 months starting April 1st” I’d drop everything, do what I could to get out of my apartment, go to my folks’ place, and chill there while enduring this shelter in place cuz I don’t have 12 to 18 months of rent saved up LMAO.
My dude, do you really think that any given government is going to place any given nation under a 12 to 18 month shelter in place without expecting riots in the streets and people blasting their heads off?
Oh this is not a matter of “could,” its a matter of “WILL.”
Yes, the unemployment rate WILL balloon to 33% (possibly higher, it’ll likely be approaching the 50% mark) and the inflation is gonna be unesettling, but some of the greatest companies around emerged during stuff like this. The stuff that literally changed the way we conducted ourselves in the future were created during the worst depressions ever.
Are you gonna be scared of that or are you gonna decide to build something that a lot of people need? I’m thinking of what problems I can solve when everything gets back to normal so that people can throw money at me when I solve them, I don’t know about you.
I already have an idea and that is how to train your brain to consume like crazy again after halting spending for so long lol. Think people won’t buy that after months of training themselves not to waste their money?
That’s what I’m thinking of.
Learn to live day by day and moment to moment. Deal with what comes your way, adjust to it, make your adjustments the “new normal” for you, then proceed.
I work in healthcare and you’re unfortunately wrong about this in my opinion – it’s the first time I’ve disagreed with anything apart from your take on testosterone. If your stance on this ever pulls towards the mean I’d love to see the workaround for TH guys that want different partners (without a live in OLTR) who can see a new woman say every 14 days or so and stay societally responsible and within the boundaries of the law. Best wishes.
It’s just an excuse to manufacture a crisis to gain more control over people and create another recession to buy up all real assets on the cheap. They will destroy small businesses and move the world one step closer to a global currency/government. David Icke is right – they don’t give a shit about people, especially older people.. It’s just an excuse to control the rest of us and use fear to herd people into giving up ALL their freedoms. Check out his interview at London Real — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMTZu6_TjU8
Higher unemployment is disinflationary. It dries up the demand side.
Try again.
I know that I’m talking about when demand goes back up, sorry I didn’t clarify.
We’re definitely gonna see some crazy inflation if we get UBI and that’s a possibility if really does go on until mid 2021.
But I don’t think this is gonna go until mid 2021. I think either a vaccine will be made or there will be less cases from the impending hotter climates which are known to kill the virus.
That’s the problem with COVID: Its molded right in with the other common allergies that we’re seeing that’s why it is so difficult to detect. If this was like Ebola where you start crying blood and collapse randomly, we’d have a much better handle on it cuz there would be no confusion.
I think things will return to normal when cases start dropping, or if we see a minuscule increase compared to what we’re seeing now.
That’s why I’m just trying to take this day by day and do all I can to prevent myself by being infected which is stuff I do anyways. I’m just glad this isn’t airborne cuz if that was true then we’d be in serious trouble lol
except it is airborne, you should see what’s happening in ERs across the nation and what doctors wearing in them, it’s full on Contagion movie shit
It’s been about a week since I last had sex, and I’m a bit caught up in Amsterdam. The slightly scary thing is that I find myself in … oneitos? Nah. Scarcity mentality. Prone to missing two women in Jakarta, although one much more than the other. I found myself laying there, talking her into divorcing her husband and making her pregnant and being happily ever after, constantly entranced by the rapid succession of extreme emotional states. Pure Disney.
The scariest thing was it seemed to make sense. Scarcity mentality, but more emphasis on “scarcity” than “mentality.”
If there was any evidence of that, it would be reflected in bond markets. Have you looked at them lately?
Have you looked at the price of gold lately?
Can’t wait to read your Monday article on this. The fear and panic about this is way overblown by the media. The only people remaining calm are in the minority.
You disagree with me because you work in healthcare. You guys are in a middle of a horror show right now and that can’t not color your perception about this.
Precisely. If I worked in a hospital or doctors office I would be thinking this was literally the end of the world… but it’s not.
There will be a video attached to the blog post as well so I can yell at people and try to snap at least some of them out of their irrationality, however, neither the video nor the article will satisfy anyone who is already scared or upset about this. Half of those people want to be scared no matter what anyone says and the other half are expecting me to give them magical answers to impossible problems. (“How do I have sex if it’s illegal to go anywhere, Blackdragon??? What do I do???” Uh, you don’t have sex or you quickly move in with a woman or you break the law. What else is there?)
This is all temporary. Suck it up and tough it out. Be a fucking man. Or be whining little beta. The choice is yours.
And the few remaining calm and rational are the ones who will come out of this better off.
We had our first Focus Program meeting today. Every one of the attendees flew out for the session with no hesitation whatsoever except for one person whose flight was canceled through no fault of his own (and he attended remotely). Not one person brought up this crap with the virus. Everyone in the room was focused on improvement and proactivity. Rational, sharp, action-oriented guys, every one of them. God damn, it was so nice to be a room full of Alpha Male 2.0s rather than listen to a bunch of men non-stop crying and whining on the internet.
It was such an enjoyable experience that I’ve made the decision start spending more time with more Alpha Male 2.0s in real life as soon as the quarantines and lockdowns are lifted. It’s a plan I first started outlining last year. I can’t wait to implement it.
Shame you don’t understand RNA sequencing and why the word “novel” is relevant here
Also you don’t seem to understand what “exponential” means.
Worldwide cases are above 300,000 and we will look back in a few weeks on this as the “good old days” reletavity speaking as cases are in the millions.
May should see cases in the tens of millions if not before.
Of course but it’s officially aknowleged that lockdown measures will most probably be 6 to 18 months long.
https://youtu.be/MPONnXFCtCM
Hopefully the lockdown will soon be more discerning maybe with age or ncov antibodies testing, etc… Because 18 months of monogamy or sexless would really suck.
For men that is, but we all know that women can have phases of years without sex without any problem.
Michael Osterholm (author of Deadliest Enemy, you might have seen him on Joe Rogan) says that too, that it will probably be more like a several month winter, rather than a short blizzard.
I like what Grant Cardone says about it: The BAD news is that you are going to survive; the issue is what kind of person are you going to be coming out of it.
This is gonna be a crucial test of character for all of us and there is no speculation around that.
Those who take things one day at a time, are resourceful, can learn how to be homebodies, can go months without sex without driving themselves crazy, take preventive measures to not get infected, are willing to sacrifice the things they do for fun pretty much permanently and can refuse the temptation to panic are going to come out of it better off.
Those who panic and who are begging for a hookup from the government (oh that hookup’s coming, but we’re gonna have to pay probably 5x of it back as soon as things get back to normal, so I’m not spending any of that hookup lol: Might upgrade my laptop but that’s about it) will come out of this way worse. It won’t be the virus that kills them it will be their piss poor mental state. The virus will kill very few compared to who it infects: The panic related to the virus is what is going to be deadly. This is why I think we will see more suicides than ever before or since in 2020 and 2021.
Good. More incentive to find a vaccine, which is what we need to see in all this. We need more cases this way things can get taken more seriously. Cuz let’s be real: If cases were like that now, no one would play around and we’d be in our houses until May. Then a vaccine would be made even faster.
Again, we need to know what is meant by “lockdown measures.” Things being super inconvenient like this for 6 to 18 months? Whatever. I can deal with it. 6 to 18 months of shelter in place? No we’re in trouble. Now we’re gonna see homicides and suicides like crazy. Are governments really willing to take that chance? I really doubt it.
Well, my case is that I had fever for 2 days, then 3 days ok, 2 more days with fever, then great, except I just noticed I have ZERO sense of smell or taste (anosmia and ageusia) and going back it must have started by my last day with fever, maybe earlier. It’s slowly being recognized internationally as a symptom of coronavirus. It’s not the usual nasal congestion that hinders your senses, it’s absolutely no feeling while having a perfectly clear nose. I recognize food in the mouth by texture and temperature, so it’s not immediately noticeable because the brain is so good at filling missing sensations in.
I know, Blackdragon, you would love an economic downturn and I see your point but I’m very worried about the depression hysterical governments might cause. If they forget any regard for the importance of economy in the well-being of the people, and so far it’s what they are doing in many countries, the consequences could be disastrous. Let’s hope they recover some sanity. Listening too much to doctors enjoying their 15 minutes of fame who know nothing about economy is not the way to run a government.
Commenter: I’m very worried because…
BD: It will be temporary. Suck it up.
Commenter: Yeah but look at this new news article, it says this scary thing…
BD: Stay rational. Take action instead of being scared.
Commenter: Yeah but look at this new news article, it says this scary thing…
BD: Stop being a pussy. Focus on what you can control.
Commenter: You don’t understand how serious this is! Things are coming apart!!! Look at this new news article, it says this scary thing…
Were chest pains part of it? Cuz I’ve been struggling with mild chest pains for the last couple days.
Let me clarify what I am saying. Currently my city, the lockdown isn’t even complete (it’s not yet as drastic as Wuhan, Italy or France). There is a curfew, a every non essential shop is closed, most restaurants are closed except for a few but only take out or delieveries are allowed and the region sends propaganda “Stay in your homes” but we are still actually allowed to go out during the day before the curfew as long as we wear a mask and respect social distancing of 2 meters (~7 feet). So technically, I should still be able to have my MLTRs and FBs come as usual have sex, as long as they respect the curfew. Right?
HOWEVER the reality is that overnight my rotation of 5 MLTRs plus a couple of irregular FBs totally collapsed: 0 women accept or can see me. They even believe that it’s purely and simply forbidden and that they will be put in jail if a cop see them outside in day time for anything else that groceries shopping. Or they know that it’s actually allowed but they are affraid to get covid-19, which is quite ridiculous since they’re all in their 20s, the risk of complications for them is close to zero (however some are in close contact with older folks). I have been trying to inform them rationally but they don’t want to hear anything calm and constructive. Also some simply cannot come back in the city as the border with the neighbour region where they went to visit their family is simply closed.
Most people believe it’s gonna last only a short time like 2 weeks or a month. And women don’t even give a rats fuck about not having sex for 2 years anyways. Women are not like men, they can have very long phases of years without sex and still function great psychologically. I cannot, as most men. And I don’t know what to do about it, but I sure as hell don’t want to spend more than 1 month without sex or even de facto monogamous! Yet, as you say there is no miracle solution so it seems that’s what is gonna happen anyways whether I like it or not.
I really hope they soon release at least some people from any constraints, like me, who are reasonably young and healthy who live alone or only with young and healthy housemates, as the risk of complication for any infected person in the household is close to zero. Maybe they need to create new ID passes based on health checks or biometrics. But how fast could they deploy that? Nobody is even talking about such idea anywhere.
In this country there are less than 8M people over 60. Let’s take a super pessimistic estimate that 20% of them would die if we don’t give them any treatment or medical help at all, that means . It’s probably more like 5% actually, but anyways other younger people could die too. So, 20% means 1.6 million deaths, mostly old and sick people who would probably die soon anyways. 5% means 400000 deaths.
Now if we isolate those old and weak folks, force them into self quarantine, isn’t that plenty enough social distancing measures? I mean sure a few thousands are gonna be stupid and go out or let someone in, catch the virus and die. But that’s just them being stupid beyond repair anyways. Sure a few other hundreads of young healthy folks are gonna die too, but this is statistically largely irrelevant, they could die from car accident or anything else with the same probability. It’s just bad luck.
Then in 18 months vaccine is available en masse. End of the story.
I feel like a vaccine will be developed sooner than that.
But yeah I can see how frustrated you are. Think others will be frustrated as well and I think a lot of governments won’t see it feasible to make everything super inconvenient like now for too long. They’ll lose too much money.
This is why I am taking this one day at a time while assuming that things are gonna be super inconvenient like this for six months. Maybe one of those months being a shelter in place thrown in there. It’s the only reasonable thing to predict about all this.
I’m just worried about going food shopping and stuff.
Caleb: Stop being a fucking loser who panics like a sheep and use the current down time productively.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_2Os57rqf8c&feature=youtu.be
The mortality rate of this virus isn´t the (main) reason why governments and medical professionals around the world are panicking.
Roughly 20% of those with COVID-19 will develop disease severe enough to require hospitalization, with roughly 5-6% requiring mechanical ventilation (https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/covid-19-update-what-you-need-to-know/). If this virus spreads to 70-80% of the population within a very short time, you might get intubated by a gynecologist in the not-so-distant future and no doctor at all in the distant future. That is why Italy (a region that is wealthier than most areas in the world) is seeing mortality rates of up to 10%. Nowhere in the world are enough ressources (doctors, masks, beds, etc.) to treat 14% (20% of 70%) of the whole population at the same time. That is the reason why you need to stay the fuck home.
The amount of people who are allowing themselves to be herded into pens like cattle and not the virus is what scares me. You’ve been preaching on your blog about human irrationality since forever but now we all have front row seats. I know I’m looking too much at social media which I should stop doing. But wow, they really are just barn animals at this point, trading their every freedom for social approval. That is the real risk of an event like this – a populace that enables its government to defang themself and wait in their homes for either rioting, martial law, or invasion by a foreign power. Probably won’t happen, but I think there’s a bit more than just a 2% chance of it at this point in time.
@Vadim: This is a pile of horseshit. You do realize that even giants will collapse from this. Almost all things relevant to tourism is going to get fucked up, sports are fucked up already etc. World leaders almost caught this and some already caught it.
Pandemics have been going on like forever. Curfews during pandemics have been going on like forever.
No one is trying to control you with this. It is the reality and it will go back to business as usual in few months, at least for us who created an all around secure environment
Martin, the amount of people who get infected is easily 10x what’s detected, but all those extra people never need any care, some don’t even notice they are ill. This means that you have to divide every % in your calculation by 10. It’s not that scary now, is it? In Iceland they found 20 (not 10) times the amount of cases they thought they had. https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/15/first-results-of-general-population-screening-about-1-of-icelanders-with-coronavirus/
The amount of people who think every infected person is detected amazes me. They think life is a computer game or something?
Serum tests, that tell you if have ever had the infection, are becoming available and finally people will stop fearing this ridiculous virus when we all see how many already had it.
Trump urges for economy to get restarted, his plan is to decrease >60yo population. Less social security expenditure means taxes can be cut, 4D chess!
Shura, read the link I posted. The 20% number includes the estimated number of infected people, not just the known infections
No, Martin, it’s not included. Those famous 1-3% deaths and 20% hospitalisation are for detected cases, which uniformly all over the world are only 1/10 (probably 1/20) real cases.
Every doctor knows that but since they don’t know by how much infection is underreported they make extremely pessimistic predictions by leaving it out of the equation.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-professors-claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate
My prediction is that it will be a flu season squeezed into one month. So yes, it will be painful to see the daily deaths and swamped hospitals, but it will be short and hopefully governments will lift measures quickly. The key is that the virus is weak, only very fast in spreading.
Shura, 100 bucks say US is going to have 100k deaths by April 17, it’s much more than a typical flu season (30k-60k)
I’ll happily take that bet, but I don’t think Blackdragon will find it appropriate that we do it here. 🙂
You have the flu figures right, yes. I think 100k is a worst case for the total a couple of months from now.
Harry, the date you set for the bet has come and gone.
You expected 100k deaths. You missed by a factor of 3.
However, you still did way better than NY state, who missed by a factor of 8.
Now governments will learn that hysteria does not have an “off” switch and the real pain will begin as we discover the economic catastrophe that has been caused.
Look, there were reports from Italy way back that only 25% of deaths were accounted for officially. There are multitude of reasons for that (all covid19 related). I remember personally checking just recently daily heart attack death rate in NYC from 2018 and 2019 (March / April), it was around 140 a day, this year it was around 250-300 a day I believe. Unusual jump. That’s just NYC. And just heart attack deaths. I’d guess all kind of deaths jumped up across the country. For various reasons (all covid19 related).
I believe if you’d take a number of deaths March-April from 2018, 2019, nationwide and compare it with the 2020 March-April one, you’d be surprised by the difference.
Ah, you didn’t know all this when you set the April 17th date? About Italy, excess mortality data point to maybe 2x declared deaths, not 4x.
Doomers are gonna have a bad time. By now the virus is in retreat in most of the West, there is no difference between locked-down and free places (look at Sweden) and the balance of deaths is less than 2x a bad flu season.
The damage that the hysteria and the love for “science” (bad models and simple yet wrong concepts) has done will appear on the annals of catastrophism together with Malthusianism, the overpopulation scare of the 70’s (“The Limits to Growth”) and Global Warming. This damage will be born mainly by the third world, with who knows what consequences.
At least there’s something good: for 30 years I can reply to anyone presenting a model as a forecast of hell with the New York State tweet I linked to above. It’s magnificent.