Let’s get this out of the way first. I do not support either Bernie Sanders nor Donald Trump for president. I think both of these guys would make terrible presidents.
I’m sure I would like Bernie Sanders’ foreign policy, since he’d probably withdraw a lot of America’s troops, but on the economic side he is so bad with math that someone needs to sit him down with a calculator, wipe off his glasses, and show him a few things. This crazy little socialist seriously wants to spend another $18 trillion (or so) in taxpayer funded freebies for everyone while we’re already at $19 trillion in debt. Nice fantasy, but it will simply hasten America’s collapse. (Which, in a way, might be a good thing, but that’s a topic for another time.)
I’m sure I would would like Trump’s tax policy since he would likely cut taxes on the middle class, and that’s always a good thing, and I trust him to hire competent people in key positions, but the guy is a ridiculous authoritarian who is accustomed to getting his way. He’d bloat goverment in many ways that are simply insane, not the least of which is his famous wall, keeping Muslims out of the country, and deporting millions of Mexicans.
Jesus. As I’ve said a million times, if you stop bombing countries, the Muslims won’t hate us any more, and if you stop giving people free money, the Mexicans on welfare won’t be a problem any more. But neither the left or the right are interested in these kinds of solutions, so here we are.
That all being said, if Trump or Bernie actually become the next president, it will be a very good and very exciting thing for the country. Why? Because it will be the first time in my lifetime, perhaps even the first time in a 100 years, that the elites didn’t get their choice.
For my entire life as an American, since I was old enough to somewhat understand this stuff in high school back in the 1980s, I have seen the elites pick out two corrupt puppets, one with a “D” stamped on his forehead and and one with a “R,” present them to the American sheep for us to choose one, and pretend that we live in a democracy, which of course we don’t. If Trump or Bernie actually win the presidency, hell, even the nominations of their respective parties, it will send shockwaves through the halls of power in this country and many others.
That’s a very good thing. It’s about time the elites got a black eye. More importantly, when the elites get scared, we all benefit, at least a little.
Here’s a very simple yet significant example most people don’t know anything about. During the 1990s Bill Clinton manipulated the numbers of the federal debt and “balanced” the budget. He really didn’t balance anything, but people thought he did because most people don’t understand economics and simple math (coughBerniecough). Granted, he did indeed cut down on some goverment waste. Left-liberals hailed him for being such a great guy. Was this because Bill Clinton, one of the most corrupt politicians in history, was some kind of small goverment, economic genius?
Nope. He did it for one reason: Ross Perot getting 19% of the popular vote during Bill’s election year (1992).
According to Bob Woodward (yes, that’s of Woodward and Bernstein fame), the elites were terrified that a non-Democrat, non-Republican actually got 19% of the popular vote. To ensure they stayed in power and the unwashed masses didn’t revolt, they made sure to scramble to show the voters that they cared about Perot’s number one issue: the federal debt.
So a third party billionaire runs on reducing the debt, loses but gets 19% of the vote, and the elite’s puppet Bill Clinton balances the budget despite being a left-winger, for the first time in decades.
Sadly, the next president was the corporatist neocon George W. Bush, the biggest big-government president in American history at the time of his reign, and he exploded the debt all over again.
Regardless, the point stands: when the elites get scared, things actually get fixed, at least a little.
Will Trump or Bernie save the United States from its eventual collapse? No. I’ve already discussed why. In the long-term, America is fucked no matter who we elect (barring a technological invention no one is planning on). We’re about 15 years past the point of no return. Yet a Trump or Sanders presidency or even party nomination will mean some good things for us Americans despite the damage either of these men would do as president.
Regardless, the odds still favor the Lizard Queen as our next president, as I’ve been saying all along. At the moment, in a Trump vs. Hillary race, Hillary wins. America is a left-wing country now, and most voters want nothing to do with a right-wing one-percenter no matter how entertaining he is. In a Trump vs. Lizard Queen race, the Lizard Queen will be triumphant unless something usual happens. (Here’s hoping she still goes to jail! Oh, that would be so nice.)
Bernie has an even smaller chance. A snowball’s chance in hell, that is. Despite the fact she’s so off-putting, Hillary is still a solid 15 points ahead of Bernie nationally. As I’ve discussed already, a Democrat needs blacks and Hispanics to win, and they’re on Hillary’s team, not Bernie. No, Bernie is the candidate for delusional young white people who can’t do math. Not to mention the massive amount of elites’ money and power behind the Lizard Queen, and the fact that millions of women are chomping at the bit to elect the First Female President (if you want to call the Lizard Queen “female”), even if she is a criminal. As I’ve said, the future of America is Bernie Sanders and people like him; he’s just about 10-15 years too early.
However! I have to admit Trump has a decent chance and Bernie has a tiny one. I also have to re-iterate that despite the polls and analysis, the American voters have become so irrational lately that these kinds of elections have become hard to predict.
It’s going to be a very fun election.
Enjoy the decline!
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Netbug
Posted at 07:02 am, 28th January 2016I’m not trying to be confrontational here (I’m genuinely curious), but I keep hearing Sanders nay-sayers (and like you, I don’t think he will win) harp on his economics (as you say “bad at math”) yet none of them will cite specific problems with his economic platform. He’s laid it out much more clearly than any of the other candidates https://berniesanders.com/issues/how-bernie-pays-for-his-proposals/
What, specifically, do you see wrong mathematically with what he is proposing?
Ergeniz
Posted at 07:55 am, 28th January 2016Netbug, I’m not Caleb Jones and admittedly far less knowledgeable on this stuff but one problem that stands out to me in his ‘methods’ of payment basically amount to “raise the taxes for the elite and/or the rich”.
Do you seriously believe that those in power will commit to having their taxes raised or having their wealth affected? Past history should give you the answer to that.
Many presidents have proposed that before and it has never come through. And even if it did, it wouldn’t solve the massive debt problem. If I’m not mistaken, the majority of taxes are paid for by the middle class and more specifically, men. Both the rich and lower class (breeders, degenerates, welfare recipients) rely upon this fact which is why the disenfranchisement of the family unit and the increase of single mothers, etc has been such a noticeable blow to economy.
Netbug
Posted at 08:47 am, 28th January 2016Thanks for the reply, Ergeniz .
I’d really like to see some citations on your second point (“the majority of taxes are paid for by middle class”), because as the wealth divide splits, that would dictate that the problem is the upper-class not being taxed enough (ie. company A lays off 2000 workers, makes 50% more, pays less tax, resulting in a reduction in total income for the state).
This sentence “Do you seriously believe that those in power will commit to having their taxes raised or having their wealth affected? Past history should give you the answer to that.” is annoying because people, including myself and Caleb, want change, but then many sit back and say “never gonna happen.” Well, obviously it won’t if nobody acts. Then those who do act are ridiculed for their attempts by those who “armchair quarterback” the problems.
Regardless, my concern is that ALL the negative responses I’ve seen to the plans have been “never gonna happen” with no reliable data to back it up while reputable financial experts and institutions say it will (Robert Reich is the most famous, but department heads at Cornell, Harvard, Notre Dame, Cambridge, etc.). It is, to me, reminiscent of climate change denial where you have a swath of experts providing evidence, and a few loud people shouting it down without any data to back it up.
I’m not trying to convert here, I just get confused when statements without any data to back them up are taken with as much weight as those with numbers behind them.
Caleb Jones
Posted at 10:36 am, 28th January 2016Even if Bernie cut the entire military and taxed the super-rich at 100% it would not pay for all the shit he wants in addition to all the shit the goverment currently spends. It would mostly be MORE DEBT. Even even that assumes that no corporations would move their headquarters offshore to avoid Bernie’s new massive taxes on them, and most of the big ones would. Just watch the below video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-8spGrLrUM
http://www.wsj.com/articles/price-tag-of-bernie-sanders-proposals-18-trillion-1442271511
http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/16/news/economy/sanders-taxes-spending/
So hey, if you don’t care about America’s debt and long-term fiscal future (and most left-wingers don’t), then fine, go for Bernie. I stopped caring quite a while ago. 🙂
Ergeniz
Posted at 11:18 am, 28th January 2016“Even if Bernie cut the entire military and taxed the super-rich at 100% it would not pay for all the shit he wants in addition to all the shit the goverment currently spends. It would mostly be MORE DEBT. Even even that assumes that no corporations would move their headquarters offshore to avoid Bernie’s new massive taxes on them, and most of the big ones would”.
Exactly.
And don’t forget that massive corporations like McDonald’s, Wall Mart and Microsoft are working WITH the government.
Matt
Posted at 03:26 pm, 28th January 2016This is the second blog post I have read on this site.
Finally, someone else that thinks math is important!
I would like to respectfully disagree on one issue. I think Trump will steamroll the other R’s and then destroy the D candidate.
You sound like a Ron Paul guy – am I wrong?
Caleb Jones
Posted at 07:37 pm, 28th January 2016Scott Adams agrees with you, and I respect his opinion. I think that’s possible but not the most likely outcome. Trump’s media manipulation and persuasion skills are literally epic, something politics hasn’t seen in our lifetimes, so he certainly has a shot. But America is still a left-wing, quasi-socialist, rich-people-hating country. As they were all saying three years ago, because single women, minorities, and people under 30 have become such a huge voting block now, it’s entirely possible we may never see another Republican president again, even if his name is Trump.
The most statistically likely outcome is that Bernie makes a huge splash, but Lizard Queen wins the nomination, goes up against Trump or Rubio, either of whom will make a decent showing in the election, but will lose to the Ms. Lizard by about 5-10 points nationally.
I guess we’ll see.
Correct. Huge Ron Paul guy. Love him. A man like him will never be elected, nor could such a man turn anything around if he was elected, but yeah, I love him.
Fraser Orr
Posted at 09:53 am, 29th January 2016There is of course the FBI factor. From what I can see they want to take someone down for this email thing and possibly the Clinton foundation thing. It might not be Hillary, but possibly her close assistants. Someone is going down for this thing, even if it is a big splashy resignation from the FBI director and others. It is just so very Watergate-y in nature.
Of course American voters are so screwed up many of them will still vote for Hillary even if she is in the jail.
BTW, Trump, entertaining though he is, frankly I think he has made a bad mistake in his handling of Megyn Kelly. His latest tweet with her GQ pics is really just going to piss off all women and a lot of men. I don’t understand why he can’t leave that one alone (aside from the fact that he is a giant narcissistic douche.) But how whiny and beta is it to complain “those are mean questions” and “you are too slutty to ask serious questions.” I mean really?
Tony
Posted at 04:10 pm, 30th January 2016That video didn’t address many of the points on the site Netbug linked too. He just used military spending and high income taxes, which are only some of the revenue producing proposals Sanders listed. Most of the other revenue comes from taxing corporations (which isn’t included in the income tax) and the middle class (mostly for health care, the assumption is that the taxes will replace insurance costs), but also from inheritance taxes. It doesn’t even list cutting military spending. The Wall Street Journal article is behind a paywall, so it’s tough to verify their $18 Trillion number.
Using the numbers Sanders provides, it looks like if all his plans were implemented it would actually reduce the deficit. His funding sources add up to more than the costs of his plans that cost money.
Caleb Jones
Posted at 04:40 pm, 30th January 2016If there is an FBI issue, that’s what’s likely going to happen. They nail some of her underlings but she’ll get off scot free, and none of the left-wingers will care; they’ll vote for her anyway.
Even though Trump is leading in the polls, his unfavorably rates are, I believe, the highest of any presidential candidate in history. (The main reason his poll numbers are so high is because there are so many Republican candidates right now; they would be far lower if there were just 2-3.)
That’s why if it’s a Trump / Hillary race, Hillary will likely win (unless something unusual happens).
…who will leave US shores to avoid those taxes…
…which will damage the economy and reduce overall tax revenue…
…which is a stupid assumption since government programs are always more costly than promised…
…most of which will be avoided by setting up trusts, corporations, and offshore accounts.