This is one of the biggest questions I get, and today I’m going to address this in detail. The West is collapsing — but what does that mean? What will happen, and when will it happen?
Before we get into the specifics of what may or may not happen, we need to cover the basics.
1. Don’t engage in “doomsday porn.”
Too many of you are doing this. We’re not going to experience some kind of Mad Max end-of-the-world scenario. I do not anticipate the kind of collapse that will see us stockpiling weapons and scavenging in caves. That’ s 2% Rule shit which means it’s not going to happen.
It’s also not going to happen tomorrow. We’ll talk about time frames in a minute, but I don’t anticipate a collapse this year or next year or anything like that. It will happen within our lifetime though, and that’s why we’re talking about it.
2. Don’t be naive or biased.
Don’t be one of those people who insists that everything will be probably fine. More left-wing men are often tempted to do this, as are non-Western men who have recently moved to the West to seek a better life. Regardless of your emotions or political views on this matter, the likelihood is overwhelming that United States and Canada will collapse within our lifetimes, and Europe is collapsing right this minute. It’s not a 100% certainty (nothing in life is), but the odds are overwhelming. To just blow this off and say everything will be fine forever is silly.
That brings us to our final basic point.
3. No one can precisely predict the future. Not me, not you, and not your favorite pundit.
Let me be clear about this — there is no way to accurately predict what will happen or when. Anyone who says (or even implies) they can exactly predict what will happen and/or when it will happen is either a psycho or is trying to sell you something.
I’m going to give you five possible scenarios detailing the way in which the Western world could collapse. I’m confident that one of the five will occur in our lifetime. I don’t know which it will be; I also don’t know exactly when it’ll happen because I can’t predict the future.
But what we can do is make educated guesses about the future. My educated guess — and I’m pretty sure I’m right — is included in one of these five scenarios.
Here these scenarios are, listed in no particular order of likelihood or severity.
Scenario One: Secession
This one is bad, but it’s probably the least bad, so because of that, I’m kind of hoping this is the one that happens. Secession is when smaller states or provinces start breaking away from their host-parasite relationships with their host countries or conglomerates, such as the United States or the European Union.
One example in the U.S. would be if the less left-wing states broke away from the rest of the country as the U.S. continues its decline. We’re talking about states like New Hampshire, Texas, and Alaska. They may break away and form their own countries. (I love it when Texas threatens to do that because it actually was its own country a long time ago.)
I don’t think this is very likely; I don’t think the states these days have the balls to detach themselves from the financial teat of the United States Federal Government or take on the U.S. military.
Outside the U.S., you might see places like Quebec secede from Canada. In Europe, you might see Catalonia secede from Spain. A few years ago, Scotland famously threatened to leave the UK, but they were full of shit and didn’t leave. Again, it’s really hard to say no to free money from a distant government, even if you hate it.
What we’ve seen when the Soviet Union collapsed is that some of those former satellite countries are doing really well, and some of them are not. Likewise, if the U.S. and Canada broke apart into a bunch of little countries, some of them would suck, and some would do pretty well.
Again, I don’t think this will happen, but it’s the least bad one, and it’s the one I’m hoping for.
Scenario Two: A Slow Decline
Four hundred years ago, Portugal basically ran the entire world. People don’t know that. Portugal was the naval superpower that everyone in the world was scared of. Eventually, it collapsed. Now, does that mean it’s gone? No, it’s still there. It’s this little flyspeck of a country on Europe’s ass that’s drowning in debt and the IMF has to keep bailing them out. They have no money, they run nothing, and nobody gives a shit about them anymore.
In 100 years or less, that could be the United States. The U.S. could wind up being this tiny country the size of Connecticut surrounded by Mexican or Chinese countries (many of which would be bankrupt too). The same thing happened to Britain; they used to run the world about 200 years ago, but they don’t anymore, do they?
So, it wouldn’t be a sudden collapse. It might just be a slow, constant decline that never rebounds, but doesn’t just crash one day. I don’t necessarily think this is the one that will happen (just look at what happening now to America in 2020), but it could, and it’s more likely than secession. The advantage with this scenario is that you have more time to get the fuck out.
Scenario Three: Currency Crisis
I think this is probably the most likely scenario to occur. Unfortunately, it also happens to be the scariest.
A currency crisis is when there’s a massive problem with the American dollar (and concurrently with the Canadian dollar and/or the Euro) in which the value of the dollar either skyrockets, which would be a deflationary crash, or the value collapses, which would be a hyperinflationary collapse.
One example of hyperinflation currency collapse is when China, Russia, India, and other countries stop using the U.S. dollar (which isn’t something they can do anytime soon). When they stop using the dollar, trillions of dollars start flooding back into the U.S., the value of the dollar collapses, and prices skyrocket. A loaf of bread at the store is now $300, and all the money you have in your 401k is worthless (unless you own gold or silver). Your real estate and other assets are also worthless — it’s a really bad situation.
Deflation is the opposite of inflation, and it happens when the value of your currency skyrockets instead of going to zero. In that scenario, there is some kind of huge crisis somewhere in the world (a war in Europe, a limited nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan, etc.), and the entire world floods to the U.S. dollar. The stock market bubble finally bursts, all the elite monetary organizations across the world run out of ways to fudge numbers, and the stock market crashes. The Dow might go from 25,000 to 5,000 (or even less). Stocks and commodities collapse; banks call in every loan they have and no one can pay them. These things would produce a crisis like the Savings & Loan collapse of the 1980s, but a hundred times worse. Everyone loses their homes and all the real estate they own. What remains of the manufacturing sector collapses and is gone for good. You get the idea — very bad.
Again, I think this is the most likely of the five, but it’s hard to predict.
Scenario Four: Totalitarianism
This is when you get some kind of evil, charismatic Hitler-type figure who assumes power in the U.S., Canada, or Europe through some type of coup. They shut down the borders, cut out most international travel, expel immigrants, civil liberties virtually disappear, and they even institute martial law in places.
I don’t think this is going to happen; most people are too beta for this kind of thing and the military is unlikely to support a Hitler-like maniac in most Western countries, even today. But, it’s possible, so I put it on the list just to be complete.
Scenario Five: War
This could be one of several different things.
First, let’s cover what it isn’t. There will not be a civil war in the United States. I want to be clear about this; people don’t understand the difference between civil war and civil unrest. In the U.S., which is in a state of collapse, you’re going to have a regular, constant state of civil unrest in cities all over the country, starting now (as I’ve talked about before). It’s just something Americans are going to have to get used to now. Europe too, and it will happen in Canada eventually as well, but it will probably happen there last.
That’s not civil war. Civil war means there are two military bodies (armies) armed with heavy artillery going to war against each other. That is not going to happen in the U.S. I can’t speak for Europe; that’s a little different.
What could happen — I would say most likely in Europe, but it could happen here — is that a country goes crazy and starts going to war against other countries. Putin might finally snap and start invading countries. The U.S. could overreact to some big issue overseas and counter in a way that’s disproportionate.
You could also have a conflict outside the Western world. Tensions are getting bad between India and China; tensions are always high between India and Pakistan; there are a lot of possible powder keg-type situations that could blow up. I don’t predict a nuclear war or another world war, however. Too many elites all over the world would lose too much, and they all know each other; I don’t see it happening. Instead, there are tiny proxy wars going on all over the world, and one of those could expand into something more significant. But again, I don’t think it’s super likely.
These are the five possibilities. A currency crisis is probably the most likely (probably inflationary), the second most likely is probably slow decline, secession is third, war is fourth, and totalitarianism is last.
It is your job as the Alpha Male 2.0 to prepare for any one of these scenarios. I am prepared for all of these. In fact, I would profit from a number of them. (I already have; have you seen the price of gold and silver lately? Fuck yes!!! Keep collapsing, America!!! Daddy wants a new house!)
I’ve said this a million times: The United States is going to collapse sometime during our lifetime and you can’t stop it. But if you’re smart, you can benefit from it. I know that feels weird; I am a proud American (in terms of what America used to be), and I love the people there, but I can acknowledge it is in decline. Europe will probably collapse even faster.
As always, the best course of action you can take is to move out of the Western world, though I realize most of you are not going to do that. Otherwise, set up your location independent international Alpha 2.0 business. That way, you’re very mobile and your income is not dependent on the Western world.
I don’t know when it’s going to happen; it won’t happen tomorrow or next year. Could it happen in five years? Maybe, but I doubt it. Ten years? Yes, it could. The COVID-19 crisis has probably taken 10 years off the lifespan of the United States.
If it happens in 20 years, you’ll start feeling the effects much sooner than that. Everything’s not going to be great and suddenly go to shit 20 years from now. We’re already feeling it now, aren’t we? It won’t be a long time off; it will be what I call “historically soon.”
So… prepare! Get ready!
Caleb, as the west collapses, which country will take USA’s place as the reigning global superpower? Or will the world be, as Obama predicted, a multipolar “Concert of Nations”, similar to that which prevailed for much of the 19th century after the collapse of Napoleon’s empire?
Stratfor predicts China will displace the USA as the largest economy and dominant military superpower, possibly accompanied by an unwinding of its US Dollar holdings (your Scenario 3 Currency Crisis), around the middle of this century, because China was the worlds reigning superpower for about 1,000 years (until knocked out of that position by the Opium Wars around 300 years ago), and their current rise is just their return to their normal long term historical position. The point at which China passes USA would be greatest risk (but far from certainty) of military conflict between China and USA.
But others have suggested that by letting his hubris get in the way of reason (power corrupts), China’s current president Xi Jinping has sealed China’s downfall by his persuading the Chinese Communist Party to abolish presidential term limits so that he could serve for life, rather than focusing on objectively tackling the current structural weaknesses of China’s economy.
So Caleb, what do you think?
1) This is under hyperinflation – could you clarify? Real Estate should be a good asset during periods of strong inflation or hyperinflation, if it’s bought with 100% cash and intended for long-term ownership / rented out (not sold near-term), as part of a portfolio that includes gold and silver too.
It’s a real physical asset with real utility, no matter what happens to the currency.
2) I would love a more detailed article on Europe, specific signs and timelines of the currently happening collapse. I am from Europe and visited many countries in Europe over the last years, and if there is a collapse, it’s not yet something that can be felt by the average middle class person. I could only think of the Corona lockdowns as a kind of temporary collapse, otherwise on the political side I see the same shenanigans as usual, the same going on all around the world in the same reckless manner.
Actually when visiting the US I had the impressions it’s worse over there than in Europe right now. In terms of poverty, social unrest, crazy politicians, covid reaction, and several other points.
its a lot country by country, some are quite ok and some worse than uk, but overall i also have the feeling usa is worse, but if you look at france, scandinavia, belgium and england those are as bad or possibly worse than usa plus there isnt much place to hide in those countries and you dont have access to guns, but on the other hand its way way easier to move out of those places than it is from the us, as for the rest most is ok and def better than usa, germany and parts of italy and greece and parts of spain are also quite bad though. But than thats a large chunk of europe. The main problem i see is getting attacked by the bad countries within europe but i dont see that happening for quite a while. Just avoid the above mentioned countries and work on diversification and youll be fine
What’s specifically bad in these countries to see them as “in the middle” of their collapse. I’m a citizen in one, and been visiting several others / have friends there, and it’s the same bullshit as most countries including US, AU, and others around the world. But nothing more than that I can see. Nothing I see has gotten much worse in the last 5 or 10 years vs. how it was before, compared to the rest of the world or the US.
China. But it won’t look the same as it did when the USA was in charge.
Fuck no. That’s utopian and even if they try something like that it won’t last.
(Jesus. Fucking sounds like something Pussy Barack would say.)
Xi has seriously fucked up, damaged, and delayed China’s rise, oh yes. But as I (and many others) have said many times before, America’s rise from a bunch of backwater farmers to world superpower was marred by recessions, depressions, civil wars, authoritarian assholes (coughLincolncough), total psychos (coughWilsoncough), assassinations, pandemics, and all kinds of other catastrophes, yet it eventually reached the top anyway. China’s rise will be no different; lots of huge problems and fuck-ups on the way up, but it will still eventually get there.
Already discussing that at the YouTube thread.
No one can predict that.
Uhhhh, incorrect. Ask the Germans (as just one example). And yes, I’m talking pre-Covid.
Those 4 things you cherry-picked are indeed worse in the USA, correct. Europe will still collapse first due to worse problems with their banks, currencies, immigration, lack of work ethic (in some countries) as compared to the USA, economic interdependence, bankrupt welfare systems (where they can’t print their way out if it like the USA can), and various other factors.
And yes, I realize it’s really hard, even unfair, to generalize by saying “Europe” since there are so many different countries and circumstances. Regardless of any exceptions to the rule of individual nations that anyone thinks won’t collapse, the bottom line is that I can’t see any nation in Europe doing really great over the next 10-30 years.
“China. But it won’t look the same as it did when the USA was in charge.”
China won’t look the same as China looks now?
Or the way China handles global supremacy will look different from how USA today handles global supremacy?
On the way to global dominance, will China have to learn to allow more democracy and individual freedoms? Or will the rest of the world become less free – more like China?
The latter. China will be a very different world ruler than the USA. Just compare how the USA de facto rules the Middle East vs. how China de facto rules Africa. You can’t even compare the two.
To a degree, yes, but only in certain respects, and again, China will never look like America.
Irrelevant of China, the big countries in the world will all become less free, but many of the smaller nations will become more free. It’s happening already.
How can China continue its current growth, let alone become a superpower, when its entire development was based on having an underpaid workforce produce goods for the West? The wages have risen by now and in case the West does stumble and reduces consumption of Chinese goods, that will sweep out the other leg from under China.
The Chinese government is doing two sensible things, stimulating internal consumption and exploiting African natural resources and workforce. But the former is done by flooding the economy with cheap loans which will not be reliably paid back, and the latter runs into the same problems as those of China proper, just delayed.
Finally, a superpower needs to have the right kind of reputation, to become the target of brain drain, to have lots of people outside it admiring it and voluntarily spreading its propaganda. All China currently attracts is cunning and resourceful players seeking to exploit the population that CCP made exploitable.
It will grow relative to most/all other nations. I never said it would become a “superpower” (although it could), it will simply be the strongest nation as compared to all other (weak, small, collapsed) nations on the Earth.
In a world full of blind people the one-eyed man is king.