Reading Time – 7 minutes

As the USA’s economy continues to worsen, as more Americans freak out about politics as they see presidential candidates get shot in the ear or artificially installed by a group of elites, as the stock market bounces up and down like a superball, and as the Fed suddenly does a 180 and decides to (possibly) cut interest rates after raising them, America’s inevitable collapse continues right on schedule.

One of the most simplistic excuses to five flags some Americans (mostly uninformed right-wingers) blurt out is that “There’s nowhere you can run!” If America collapses, they say, the entire world goes down right with it. That’s right, they say. It’s simple math, bro. America = The Entire World. If America goes down, all the other 195 countries on the planet will instantly collapse too. Because, you know… uh… America! And stuff.

I’ve already addressed this factually inaccurate argument many times in my books and podcasts, but today I’m going to give you factual specifics on how I’ve personally handled this in my own five flags life.

As most of you know, I live in two countries, Dubai in the UAE for about seven months a year, and Asunción, Paraguay four or five months a year. I have legal permeant residency in both countries and now have year-round homes in both places. (I move into my new Paraguay home in exactly one week from the date I type this. I’m very excited!)

Let’s analyze both of these countries (UAE and Paraguay) in terms of what would happen if the USA collapsed tomorrow.

When I left the Collapsing USA back in 2021, I had already spent several years evaluating many countries all over the planet that would make good long-term homes for me, and one of the key factors I looked at was how these potential countries would fare if the USA collapsed. Since, as you know, the USA will collapse in our lifetimes so this is always a factor that needs to be taken into account when planning your long-term future. (Staying in the USA forever while hoping Trump will fix everything is the same as jumping off a cliff and hoping God will save you.)

I’m happy to say that both the UAE and Paraguay would do just fine if the USA collapsed tomorrow. That’s one of the many reasons I selected these two countries as my primary living flags.

To be clear, I’m not saying nothing bad would happen to these countries and that no adjustments would need to be made. I’m saying that in the long term, these two countries would be okay.

I’m also not saying that the UAE and Paraguay are the only two countries that will be okay when America collapses. There are lots of countries that would be just fine post-America-collapse, and that’s exactly my point.

Also, to be fair, there are indeed many countries that will indeed be completely screwed when America goes down. When America collapses, the USA’s little dog, Canada, will collapse practically the next day. Mexico and China will have some extremely serious problems. Japan, Germany, South Korea, and the UK will be seriously fucked (even more than they already are with America still around, since all four of those nations are collapsing already). Taiwan will certainly be in big trouble; without American taxpayers funding their defense, it would probably be conquered by China within three weeks. And so on.

But I don’t live in any of these countries, and with the possible exception of Mexico, you shouldn’t either. I live in two of the countries that will be fine. Let’s analyze the UAE first.

How The UAE Would Fare If America Collapsed

Let’s say the USA collapsed economically tomorrow. I’ve discussed the five different USA collapse scenarios in my books, blogs, and videos (succession, currency crisis, war/major terrorism, slow decline, or authoritarian coup) and we don’t know which of these scenarios it will be. We’ll just have to say that for whatever reason, the economy of the USA drops to 0% to 20% of what its current economic output is.

So while Americans are rioting in the streets, screaming on the internet, shooting at their neighbors, dying of starvation, committing suicide, or trying to escape the country, what would happen in my home in Dubai? A few things:

1. Oil exports to the US and investment dollars from the US would drop to almost nothing. This would be a problem. However, the good news is that most of the UAE’s trading partners, especially for exports, are countries that don’t do a lot of business with the USA already. These are nations such as Iraq, Iran, Russia, Oman, and so forth. Its biggest export partner is India. Hell, in the top ten list of export partners for the UAE, the USA is number ten(!). So exports would continue to those other nine countries, even if those exports were reduced a little.

   This all means that international trade and investment would take a hit, but would be okay. Certainly, many adjustments would need to be made, but the UAE would continue and things would be just fine, especially after a 1-3 year adjustment period. While I don’t agree with 100% of everything they do, the UAE is run by a government that’s intelligent, self-aware, and effective (I know, crazy right?). They would adjust.

2. The currency of the UAE, the dirham, is currently pegged to the dollar. With America in shambles, this would have to be changed of course, but that’s a good thing. The dirham would either free float (which would be my choice) or the UAE would peg it to some other currency or asset that took the place of the US Dollar, whatever that would be (gold, bitcoin, China’s RMB, Singapore Dollar, we don’t know).
3. The UAE would have to quickly seek out new economic ties with other global powers. My guess is that they would wisely choose to ignore Suicidal Europe, briefly consider Russia, but then look first to China. However, as I said, China would be having some problems of its own, so likely this would be India which would be much less affected by the USA’s collapse.
4. The UAE would fast-track getting off their dependency on oil (which is what Saudi Arabia is doing now), but the good news is that they’ve already been wildly successful at this, so nothing much would change here.

So all in all, there would be some temporary problems, but the UAE would carry on, and I would be just fine while my fellow Americans still living in America (why are you guys still living there again?) would all be screwed.

How Paraguay Would Fare If America Collapsed

Oh man, Paraguay would be even less affected by America’s collapse, which is why I’m here right now and have doubled down on the country as my secondary living flag. I’ve said many times that if the USA collapsed tomorrow, people in Paraguay wouldn’t even notice a difference, and that’s 100% true.

Here’s what would happen here in Paraguay if America collapsed:

1. Exports to the USA would drop to zero or close to it. Again, that would be a problem. However, the economy of Paraguay is so poor and tiny already that few people would notice a difference. Moreover, like the UAE, Paraguay’s biggest export partners are countries that would be reasonably resilient against an American collapse. Paraguay’s top export partners, in order of exports, are Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Russia. These would all continue with only small dips in certain sectors. Exports to Uruguay would also continue, though some exports to Europe (particularly Germany) would drop a bit, which would be an issue.So overall, a problem, but not a catastrophic one. And once again, most people living here wouldn’t even notice a difference in their day-to-day lives while Americans would living in chaos-hell.

2. Some people in Paraguay who had families living in the USA sending them money (it’s a Latino thing) would indeed see a drop in income since these family members would run out of money. But that is such a tiny percentage of the population here that it would have no significant effect. (Now in Mexico, that’s a different story…)
3. Paraguay’s currency, the Guarani, is thankfully not pegged to the US Dollar. However, it is strongly influenced by it like most of the rest of the world, so if the US Dollar collapsed or vanished, there might be some currency instability and perhaps even inflation. However, Paraguay’s debt to GDP ratio is a shockingly low 35% (as compared to the USA’s dreadful 123%, which even doesn’t include $80 trillion of unfunded government liabilities). This small amount of debt combined with low inflation, a strong agricultural sector, amazing net-gain hydroelectric power, and Latin America’s highest birth rates (people in Paraguay still actually have sex and have children, unlike people in the Collapsing USA, Cuckoo Canada, or Suicidal Europe), the odds of any noticeable, long-term currency problems here would be low.

So there you go, two examples of countries that will be just fine when America finally falls off the cliff. And there are many more countries just like those two.

America is fucked, but the civilized world will go on long after America is gone.

Question of The Week

T.F. Writes:

I’ve got two questions that I hope you can help with, as they’re related. In the past, I’ve had clients sign contracts with me, only to disappear halfway through. I’ve also had a client pay the first month’s fee and then request a refund. As a consultant, I’m following your refund policy of no refunds unless I don’t deliver on my promises, but I ended up refunding the money since it was just two weeks after the payment.

How would you handle these situations? I haven’t seen you talk about these specific cases before. Thanks in advance.

In the first situation, there is not much you can do other than to be very nice and send a very nice email and/or nice voicemail stating that if they’ve decided to go in a different direction or that they can’t afford my services at the moment, that’s fine, and I’m always here to help them in the future. And yes, I would take them back if they came back… ONCE. If they pull that a second time then they’re banned from ever working with me again.

In the second situation, I think what you did is fine as long as you didn’t do a mountain of work during those two weeks. It sounds like you didn’t, so fine, even though it’s against the “quality of work” refund policy, it’s not catastrophic. Also, I would not work with that company or person ever again. Leaving is one thing. Demanding a refund when you clearly know it’s against my refund policy is another; you’re just being an asshole at that point.

If you had delivered a ton of work during those two weeks, then I would have given them a partial refund since they did get value from my work (and again, they’re violating the refund policy already), but I would be very nice and flexible during these negotiations.

Both of these scenarios are part of doing business with other human beings. Just make sure they are rare occurrences. If they happen all the time, something is wrong on your end and you need to figure out what this is and fix it.

~Caleb

Leave your comment below, but be sure to follow the Five Simple Rules.