I’ve said all along that this “Trump will win in a landslide” stuff is all BS. Now, just two months away from the election, I still stand by this. Yes, Trump could win, simply because the Lizard Queen is so universally hated, or some other technicality (like her health problems). It’s certainly possible and for most of this election I’ve given him a 40% chance of winning. But even if he wins, it won’t be a landside in terms of the numbers of people voting for him.
I’ve discussed many reasons for this here, but today I I’ll describe the biggest one, that of demographics.
According to most national polls, the following groups of people support the Lizard Queen:
- Women
- Younger People
- Older People
- Blacks
- Asians
- Hispanics
- Muslims
- Gays
The following groups of people support Trump:
- White men
So…do you see a problem?
White men are the only gender, racial, or age demographic that reliably supports Trump. Every other demographic supports Hillary more, either a lot or a little.
White men only make up 31% of the US population. And by the way, 31% is the highest it will ever be. Every year this percentage decreases, both in the US and in Europe.
All those other groups make up the other 69%.
This means that the only way, and I mean the only way Trump can possibly win is if white men get out and vote on election day in shockingly massive, unprecedented numbers.
This is what the alt-right folks are betting on. That includes people like Scott Adams who have been screaming to the rooftops that “Trump will win in a landslide.” They’re betting on just one thing: that white men are so silently furious at political correctness, being marginalized, and losing their country, that hordes of them will flood the polls on election day, overcome their numerical disadvantage, smack the Lizard Queen upside the head, and give the presidency to Trump.
I agree this is possible. I’m a manosphere blogger, and yeah, white men are really, really angry, to the point of frequent irrationality that I have to deal with on a regular basis. From left-wingers, to alt-right-wingers, to MGTOWs, to Alpha Male 1.0s, damn near all these guys are furious and virtually none of them are thinking calmly and objectively.
It’s also possible that even terrified, married, white beta males may vote for Trump while pretending (to their wives and friends) to be voting for the Lizard Queen, thus perhaps rendering some of these polls inaccurate . However, they’re still only 31% of the population. The problem still stands.
It’s also true that the Lizard Queen is so loathsome to her own base that many of the demographics who would normally support her will stay home on election day, or vote for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein (though that’s much less likely, since Democrats tend to be more collectivist than Republicans, as I’ve analyzed before).
So yeah, it’s possible, but possible does not mean likely. What’s likely is that white men will turn out in typical or perhaps elevated numbers, but still won’t be able to overcome the 2-to-1 advantage women, blacks, gays, Asians, Muslims, Hispanics, younger people, and older people have over them. The Lizard Queen will likely still win, even if just by a little. I think nether Hillary nor Trump will win in a “landslide.” I think it will be close either way, unless something unusual happens in the next 60 days.
“Something unusual” could be all of Hillary’s coughing, wobbling, and stumbling she’s been doing lately. If this stuff continues, yeah, Trump will win. But if that happens, it will have nothing to do with Trump being awesome, or people finally waking up, or white men suddenly taking their country back, or people being fed up, or America suddenly shifting back to the right. Uh, no. It will simply be because the sheeple are uncomfortable voting for someone with a lot of (perceived or real) health problems. Trump just happens to be the only other option.
It goes without saying that the Lizard Queen is the most criminal presidential candidate in my lifetime, and perhaps in all of American history, so hopefully she’s getting what she deserves with all this negative press about her health. However, Trump is still a corrupt, lying, authoritarian piece of shit, who likes socialist programs, and who, I am now convinced, never really wanted to actually win when he started his run last June.
Therefore, this country is in serious trouble regardless of which of these two psychopaths our insane and delusional voters make president.
Regardless, it will be interesting to see if white men can indeed make their last stand against the left-wing, corporatist establishment that has already conquered their civilization. Because make no mistake, Trump will likely indeed be their last stand. From here on out, you’re going to see a string of socialist Bernie Sanders types run for president, not fiery nationalists.
I guess we’ll see what happens in November. Enjoy the decline!
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gr0z3g
Posted at 08:57 am, 15th September 2016I put my money where my mouth is and bet the max (predictit) on Trump in Jan. Will I vote for him? No. Will I even vote? Probably not. But I’ll take that few thou if he wins.
I’ll be surprised either way. Hell I was surprised that our country with it’s history elected a Black dude. TWICE. Shit I live in Jersey and if you travel far enough south there are still places that proudly display the confederate flag. I thought dude had no shot whatsoever.
But I’d also be surprised if this country voted a woman as president no matter how “progressive” we are compared to other countries. Anything is possible though – Obama proved that.
Also – I think that the % of people who will readily admit they’ll vote for trump SIGNIFICANTLY lower than one might believe. This number also extends outside of the sphere of white males
Caleb Jones
Posted at 11:00 am, 15th September 2016The race is too close and there are too many variables to accurately predict it at today’s date. But you might be right.
So was I (not because he was black, but for other reasons), and that’s exactly my point. In 2012, the incumbent president was re-elected in the middle of a shitty economy(!), and mostly because the other guy looked/acted too much like a rich guy(!). That’s literally never happened in my lifetime. It goes against everything in politics.
The Western world has gone too insane and irrational to make accurate predictions like we used to. Welcome to the new normal.
True, but I think the vast majority of those hidden supports are indeed white males. There probably are a few who are not, but not enough to make enough to make a significant numerical difference.
Lol.
Posted at 05:33 pm, 15th September 2016I took my own poll. I spent a month in my RV, 4,770 miles. From Virginia to Idaho. I saw 2 Hillary signs and tons of Trump signs.
It looks like white men put out election signs.
Lol
Caleb Jones
Posted at 06:06 pm, 15th September 2016That’s mostly hick flyover country, sparsely populated but full of conservatives. Yeah, they’ll be 90% for Trump at least, but most of those states don’t have enough electoral votes to make any difference.
Jeff Caffrey
Posted at 08:08 pm, 15th September 2016I live in Ohio, a state that does matter, and I can honestly say that I have seen a total of ONE Clinton sign. Thats even more surprising when your consider the following:
1) I live in liberal Cincinnati
2) I travel all over Ohio and Kentucky (Yet to see a Clinton sign there)
3) Its fuckign Ohio. People here love to put out signs.
Nearly every yard, yes in even the liberal suburbs of Cinci, has a Trump sign.
Caleb Jones
Posted at 09:10 pm, 15th September 2016Yes. Trump will likely win Ohio. Ohio has been pretty hard hit by the shitty economy, and thus voters there are more likely to look for the non-incumbent party/candidate to save them.
JFUNK
Posted at 12:28 pm, 16th September 2016I’m a little surprised. Your “con list” for Trump is pretty light yet you place them more or less on the same scale. You consider a Trump win slightly less bad, yet I suspect if you were to write out a comparison table of what’s wrong or potentially wrong with both Hillary’s would be longer by a mile.
Is that just your contrarian streak, or does Trump freak you out on some visceral level you haven’t described?
Caleb Jones
Posted at 02:31 pm, 16th September 2016Of course Donald Trump is less bad than the Lizard Queen. Doesn’t matter. When comparing two very bad things, I don’t make the distinction between a little less bad and a lot less bad, since because both options are very bad, I don’t consider degree relevant, and I think trying to figure out the minutia is a waste of your time when you could be doing something more productive.
Someone ties you down to a chair and gives you three options:
A. I chop off both your legs.
B. I chop off just your right leg.
C. I chop off just your right foot.
Arguing over whether or not option B or C is much less bad or a little less bad than option A is simply a smokescreen, and a distraction for the fact that you’re tied down to a chair and being mutilated by a madman. Instead voting on which horrible option you want, you should be focused on untying yourself and getting the hell out of there. The minute you say, “I would like option C please” you’ve surrendered to the madman, to the system, and now you’re fucked no matter what happens.
American politics is completely focused on convincing you that option B or C is good because it’s not as bad as option A. Incorrect. The reality is all options are horrible-terrible that will fuck up your life either now or later, and you need to instead forget about them and work on removing yourself some such an abusive system (as much as possible).
Kurt
Posted at 03:00 pm, 16th September 2016Can’t agree more. I’ve finally taken the steps of sitting down and working out a 5-year (maximum) plan to permanently leave the US, to preserve my sanity and my chance to live a happy and free life. The state of our political system and cultural values has gone completely horseshit.
And I’m not even an angry conservative white dude.
Tony
Posted at 03:17 pm, 16th September 2016It’s funny a lot of Trump supporters argue that he has a lot of “shy” supporters when it comes to polls, but then talk about his huge rallies and how many people have yard signs. If Trump supporters were shy about supporting him, they wouldn’t support him so openly.
The reality is that Hillary will win. As you said, the demographics are just too difficult for Trump, or any Republican, to overcome.There was a CNN poll a little while ago showing Trump up, but even that one would have Clinton winning if the demographics were like 2012.
Caleb Jones
Posted at 03:49 pm, 16th September 2016Just anecdotally, with people I personally know, I’m seeing more and more “normal people,” not angry right-wingers, but normal, everyday people (including many left-wingers) talking about leaving the US, actively planning on leaving, or flat out leaving.
It’s sad, and I hate to see it since I love what my country used to be, but it’s the only rational option we have left.
Anton
Posted at 05:25 pm, 16th September 2016Caleb, usually I think you are a bit of a wet blanket in your writing (in hopes of reviving an under-used, but excellent descriptor), but I’ve been sharing this article with politically-concerned friends in my life because you’ve produced one of the most objective assessments of our political environment in this election.
Thanks for the write-up.
Fraser Orr
Posted at 07:18 pm, 16th September 2016@Caleb Jones
> talking about leaving the US, actively planning on leaving, or flat out leaving.
Talk is cheap. All these people who say they are going to leave if Trump is elected are full of shit.
As to your analysis, I think it is a bit off. The polls say the groups you mention prefer Clinton, but that doesn’t mean, for example, all women are going to vote for her, just more will vote for her than him. Some you have it, there are probably six black people in America who will vote for Trump, though voter turn out is usually very low in that community, and the idea that they will turn out for her like they did for Obama is nuts.
There isn’t much point in all this slicing and dicing. The better way to look at it is a random sample poll which takes all these things into account (as long as it is a fair poll), and the fact is that it is closer than a pendejo.
I have absolutely no doubt that there is about 2 percentage points of people who aren’t admitting they will vote for Trump though they will (for the same reason men pretend not to stare at women’s tits or women claim they never sleep with guys on a first date, all evidence to the contrary. Having said that, there is another 2 percentage points in the level of turn out from each side, and Clinton probably has an edge here, because she has lots of money, but Trump also has the edge here since there his supporters are pretty passionate and hers are flat and unimpressed (because she is boring as dry toast, and say what you will about Trump, he is at least interesting.)
So it is a crap shoot. Normally debates don’t matter, but this year I think there is a real possibility that they could swing it one way or the other. Previous candidates are super polished and prepared, so they don’t make slips too often. Both HRC and Trump and gaffe machines waiting to happen.
So really, who the hell knows what is going to happen. It is a total toss up, and the margin of error is really more like 10 or 15 points on the polls rather than the silly claim that it is 3%.
Fraser Orr
Posted at 07:20 pm, 16th September 2016BTW, if you think form this comment I am a Trump fanboy, far from it. I think he is terrible. However, he is slightly better than HRC. He won’t stop the decline, but he will not speed it up as much as her.
Caleb Jones
Posted at 10:23 pm, 16th September 2016I completely agree that the left-wingers who say they’ll leave if Trump wins are full of shit, but I’m not talking about those people. I’m talking about people who are wanting to leave now, regardless of who wins. This Trump / Hillary thing has really smacked some people out of their sleep.
To be clear, there will never be a mass exodus of Americans leaving the country as it declines. Americans are too lazy and insular a culture. They’ll just go down with the ship. However, I predict that the amount of Americans traveling internationally (to look at other possible places to live), moving out of the country, and renouncing their citizenship is going to increase (likely by double-digit percentage points) every year from now on until the collapse.
I stated exactly that in the article. We don’t disagree.
I agree.
Qlue
Posted at 02:41 am, 17th September 2016It’s amazing how many people don’t know anything about economics and political theory and philosophy and yet go out and vote based on the fact that they have a shitty job and they need more money or that they’re about to be kicked out of their parent’s basement and they need some free (stolen) tax money to pay their bills.
The US is in a bind, it’s lose-lose, no matter who is elected. Trump announced this week that he plans on working with his daughter to put more funding towards women’s shelters (what about men’s shelters?) and force companies to implement maternity leave. So Trump is still a socialist who wants to steal your income. They’re all socialists, dems want to be dependent on big gov, and reps want you to be dependent on big corp.
Anyway, discussing US politics is pointless. All countries are like fruits, they grow slowly, then have a short sweet period, and then rot away. You just have to jump from country to country every hundred years.
If all these western socialist countries are pushing pension age to 70, then they should also push voting age to 30. It used to be that 16 year olds already started working and were fully independent by 18. My parents got married at 16 and had their first child. These days 35 year olds are still living in their mother’s basement. Psychologically they’re still not adults, they’re kids who ignorant as hell and don’t know anything about how the real world works.
Caleb Jones
Posted at 04:04 pm, 17th September 2016Correct. This is why I’m against democracy.
Yup.
Actually, they should privatize social security and reduce voting rights to economic contributors who can pass a basic test regarding economics and politics, as I talked about in the comments here:
https://calebjonesblog.com/where-i-stand-on-all-the-issues/
Yup. I’ve had several posts over at the BD blog lately about exactly that problem. And it’s going to get worse. Much worse.
Enjoy the decline!
Felix
Posted at 09:33 pm, 18th September 2016Kinda off-topic Caleb, but did you take the phrase ”Enjoy the Decline” from Aaron Clarey’s book ”Enjoy the Decline: Accepting and Living with the Death of the United States”. Just curious.
Caleb Jones
Posted at 11:57 am, 19th September 2016Yep! That’s where I got it. Aaron Clarey deserves full credit!
Kurt
Posted at 01:09 pm, 19th September 2016” “Talk is cheap. All these people who say they are going to leave if Trump is elected are full of shit.”
“I completely agree that the left-wingers who say they’ll leave if Trump wins are full of shit, but I’m not talking about those people. I’m talking about people who are wanting to leave now, regardless of who wins. This Trump / Hillary thing has really smacked some people out of their sleep.””
Yeah, that’s me. I am leaving because of where the state of things are, not because I fear the election of one over the other. They are both horrible, for different reasons. I don’t want to live in a country ruled by either, or in a country that has a political system that gives us these candidates as choices.
Of course, I realize it will likely be just as –if not more– horrible and corrupt in another country, but at least I can choose a place with more opportunity to live the way I prefer to live.
Jocko
Posted at 03:58 pm, 19th September 2016Caleb, I know you think the West is in an irreversible decline, but do you think there’s any benefit to voting for someone like Gary Johnson? I know politicians shouldn’t be thought of as saviours, but it seems like some issues (such as mass incarceration, the war on drugs and America’s inventionist foreign policy) could be addressed by the Libertarian or Green parties
Caleb Jones
Posted at 04:07 pm, 19th September 2016No. I think Gary Johnson is great (despite his left leanings) and I support him “in spirit,” but voting for Gary Johnson with the hope that he’ll actually change anything significant is just like the conservatives voting for Trump and expecting him to change things. Not gonna happen either way.
Gary Johnson not only can’t win, but if by some miracle he did, congress and the elites would align against him and he wouldn’t be able to do very much, nor could he help avoid the collapse. (He could help delay it though.)
As I’ve said before, voting in the US (and most of Europe) has become a purely emotional exercise.
Shubert
Posted at 07:32 pm, 19th September 2016Caleb, you’re very logical in your conclusion. However, when it comes to politics, things rarely are logical. People are illogical creatures and anyone who says otherwise is lying.
Caleb Jones
Posted at 07:35 pm, 19th September 2016My entire conclusion is based on the fact that voters are illogical. (More than illogical…highly irrational.)
If voters were logical we wouldn’t be in this mess in the first place.
Qlue
Posted at 12:56 am, 20th September 2016It’s not that voters are illogical, it’s that most people (90%) are short term selfish instead of long term selfish.
I could write a long post about this, but instead I’d rather people read this parable by Ted Kaczynski (Unabomber) called The Ship of Fools
Here: https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/ted-kaczynski-ship-of-fools
It perfectly explains what’s wrong with society. I fully agree with Ted, except with his violence approach. His strategy of mailing bombs to people was pointless, now he’s rotting in a jail somewhere for the majority of his life. No use trying to save a country, better strategy is to move somewhere else and enjoy the show from there.
Qlue
Posted at 01:28 am, 20th September 2016And also I’d like to add, that’s why fascists/traditionalists are more dangerous than leftists. Because they block people from fleeing the country. That’s when violence is only the option, when you are stuck and there is no way out.. Violence is the last resort, when someone has to choose between killing or being killed. So, yes, the best strategy is always to move to another country, but you only have a short window to do this, because what happens is that as governments grow, the progressives/leftists lead to a self-sabotage, and then the crazy fascists dictators like Trump take over and impose traditionalist laws like blocking people from escaping/leaving a country.
Both the left and the right are one in the same, and it is this false dichotomy of choice that most people are stuck looking on the spectrum of left and right, forgetting that their is a third option: OUT.
Qlue
Posted at 01:32 am, 20th September 2016Walls work both ways, they not only keep people out, they also keep people in.
Caleb Jones
Posted at 10:02 pm, 20th September 2016That’s one of my issues with it as well. Not that a wall on the southern border would actually stop you or me from leaving, but the increased messaging that the government can build a wall like that…what else will people ask them to do? It’s always a slippery slope.
Mickey Singh
Posted at 10:34 pm, 28th September 2016Why should we beleive you on trump?? i love ur content on bdb BUT
Mike Cernovich from danger and play
Chris from Good looking loser
Victor pride from bold and determiend
ARE ALL going for trump .. and they listed the best reasons why … ur saying u are smarter then them and u are right compared to them?
Caleb Jones
Posted at 11:21 pm, 28th September 2016Supporting Trump and thinking he’ll win in a landslide are two different things. They support Trump, but I don’t think any of them are going around saying he’ll win easily in a landslide. I’m just talking here about his odds of winning, not whether or not I support him.
Hate to break it to you, but just because someone has a different opinion from me doesn’t mean they’re dumber than me. Two equally intelligent and informed people can have completely opposite opinions. It happens all the time.
Tyler
Posted at 07:51 pm, 23rd October 2016Just curious BD,
How come I keep hearing about the Latino/ Hispanic population voting for Trump? I thought only white males reliably support Trump.
Caleb Jones
Posted at 12:33 pm, 24th October 2016I think that’s must more wishful thinking for the alt-right. Hispanics are going mostly vote for Hillary.
Mickey Singh
Posted at 06:54 pm, 26th October 2016I am 99.9 % sure trump has a open relationship with melanie the way shes chill with him doing these things! just a thought ! other people agree to! the ones “who get it” and dont beleive in disney or relgious marriage monogamy!
bd what are your thoughts do you agree? if you had to bet is it a open relationship?
Caleb Jones
Posted at 01:14 pm, 27th October 2016Yes, you’re correct. It’s not an open relationship the way you and I would define it, but as I’ve talked many times over at the BD blog, women who marry men like Trump aren’t stupid. They know he’ll be playing around, and while they don’t like it, they accept it.
Mickey Singh
Posted at 02:27 pm, 28th October 2016ok makes sense! but what about his 3 wives before melania! why do u think they divorced trump or did trump divorce them? im confused why they would divorce trump ur thoughts?
the way he raised his kids btw are amazing , just like ur pain bonding while being open relationship having kids! it shows that its possible
gr0z3g
Posted at 04:01 am, 9th November 2016I’m not sure what the lesson is here besides trusting my gut. Maybe that polls are completely worthless. Or that charisma/persuasion matters more than the facts….